Thread by @BenTzionMacales

In-Depth Analysis of Israel’s Strategic Blow to Iran’s Missile Capabilities.
A Mega Thread 🧵

Operation "Rising Lion" had two goals: stopping a nuclear breakout and neutralizing the ballistic missile threat posed by Iran.

This analysis will focus on the latter:
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For more than three decades, Iran has invested heavily in developing one of the most extensive missile programs in the Middle East. Its arsenal comprises thousands of ballistic missiles of varying ranges, cruise missiles, and covert launch systems—stored within a vast network
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of underground “missile cities.” These fortified complexes are embedded deep within Iran’s mountainous terrain.

Iran’s missiles were not merely a defensive deterrent; they have also served as strategic tools of regional influence, regularly transferred to Hezbollah, Iraqi
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militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and other allied proxies.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, eliminated in the operation’s preemptive strike, had long boasted of Iran’s missile capabilities:
“There are very few cities in Iran without a missile depot.
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Our missile cities lie 500 meters underground. We have so many that, if revealed, no enemy would be able to contend with them.”

Operation “Rising Lion” demonstrated that sustained air superiority can significantly degrade the effectiveness of this missile force
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ultimately undermining its role as a viable strategic threat.

This analysis will examine the current state of the Islamic Republic's missile bases. In addition, we will also touch on several facilities from the missile production line that were targeted during the operation.
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1. Tabriz North Missile Base

One of Iran’s largest missile bases, located in the northwest and posing a strategic threat due to its proximity to Israel. It was among the first targets hit.

Most of the base's infrastructure was destroyed.
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2. Tabriz South Missile Base

Includes a central missile erection structure, one storage tunnel, an air defense battery, and two fixed launchers.
The vast majority of the base’s infrastructure was struck and destroyed.
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3. Kermanshah Missile Base

One of Iran’s largest missile bases. It was expanding its missile stockpile with new tunnels.

The IAF destroyed key infrastructure, including two active storage tunnel entrances, missile erection structures, and command centers.
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4. Kamijeh Missile Base

A relatively small base, featuring a dual-entrance storage tunnel protected by ~100 meters of rock.
South of it lies another facility with an unknown function, also containing a storage tunnel.

All base infrastructure was targeted and destroyed.
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5. Kermanshah North Missile Base

Part of a large military complex with four tunnel entrances—either one large tunnel or two separate ones under the same ridge.

At the southern section, all above ground infrastructure including tunnel entrances, were struck.
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6. Ghazanchi Missile Base

A very small base used primarily for staging missile launchers ahead of launches, subordinate to Kermanshah HQ.
The launcher staging area was targeted in the strike.
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7. Kangavar Missile Base

A relatively small base with a central high-bay hangar and support infrastructure. A new storage tunnel was recently built nearby to protect the base’s missile stockpile.

All base infrastructure was targeted and destroyed.
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8. Khormabad Missile Base

One of the largest bases in western Iran, located within the "Imam Ali" military compound west of the city of Khorramabad.
The base consists of several tunnel complexes:
a. In the northwest section, there is a massive tunnel with three portals.
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b. In the SW, there is a launch tunnel, for underground silos.
c. In the NE, a tunnel with three portals is under construction.
d. An another single portal tunnel.

All high-bay hangars, tunnel entrances, and command buildings were struck.
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9. Borujerd Missile Base

A relatively small base with no storage tunnel. Around 10 fixed container-style launchers were added in 2024, alongside rail-based launchers.

All fixed launchers and the high-bay hangar were destroyed.
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10. Dezful Missile Base

The base includes two tunnel complexes: the northern with three entrances, and the southern with two.

Two administrative buildings were bombed, along with at least two portals of the northern tunnel.
No strikes were observed on the southern portals.
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11. Zanjan Missile Base

Identified based on local media reports.
The base features classic missile infrastructure: a high-bay hangar, underground complex for protecting mobile launchers, administrative buildings, and more.

All infrastructure was targeted and destroyed.
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12. Abhar Missile Base

A small missile base near the city of Abhar, not far from the Qazvin–Zanjan highway.

Many components were destroyed, including missile storage hangars.
Nearby, a storage tunnel is under excavation.
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13. Eshtehard Missile Base

Following reports of strikes in the Eshtehard area, a scan of the vicinity revealed what appears to be a small missile base with a double portal storage tunnel.

All components of the base were targeted and destroyed.
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14. Bidkaneh Missile Base

A major missile base W of Tehran, containing several high-bay hangars and a storage tunnel.
Possibly also known as Esfajabad, site of a Mossad sabotage operation at the start of the campaign.
All structures were struck; one tunnel portal collapsed.
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15. Tehran West Missile Base

A multi-purpose base hosting several IRGC Aerospace Force headquarters.

In the northern section, high-bay hangars and air defense components were visible and destroyed.
In the south, several command and control buildings were targeted.
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16. Qom Missile Base

Located within a massive military storage and logistics complex, in a strategic central area between Tehran and Qom.
The missile base was struck, damaging tunnel entrances and destroying several buildings. Administrative facilities were also hit.
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Satellite imagery shows a large nearby bunker compound that was bombed multiple times, causing a massive fire and chain explosions in adjacent bunkers.
Approximately 13 ammunition-filled bunkers were destroyed.
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17. Khomein Missile Base

A relatively large base with high-bay hangars and fixed rail-based launchers, similar to those in Borujerd.
About 5 km south lies a large missile storage tunnel.

Most base structures were destroyed, and the tunnel entrances were likely hit as well.
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18. Esfahan Missile Base

A large base in central Iran located at Camp "101 Anbiya." All high-bay hangars and the administrative/command unit of the base were attacked and destroyed. The base has several tunnel portals, some of which lead to large tunnel complexes. These portals were also attacked.
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19. Baharestan Missile Base

A small base with a command center, one high-bay hangar, two single-portal tunnels , and a tunnel with two fortified portals.

All infrastructure was attacked and destroyed.
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20. Mobarakeh Missile Base

A relatively small base identified during terrain scanning. Although it lacks a significant visual signature, it has components consistent with a missile base. There is a large tunnel with a visible portal and another portal emerging from the upper part of the long structure, with a section identifiable as used for missile erection in preparation for launch.

All base infrastructure was attacked and destroyed.
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21. Shiraz North Missile Base

A base north of the city of Shiraz with all relevant components of a missile base - high-bay hangars, command buildings, and tunnels.

All infrastructure was attacked and destroyed.
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22. Shiraz South Missile Base

A base primarily consisting of numerous tunnel portals and fixed launchers carved into the mountain. Over the past ten years, it has undergone significant expansion compared to its previous state.

The surface infrastructure was attacked and destroyed, and there is suspicion that at least two portals were also struck.
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23. Yazd Missile Base

A base located deep in Iran, under the command of "Imam Hossein." It has a minimal visual signature, consisting of a launch preparation structure, administrative buildings, and three tunnel portals.

The launch preparation structure, a building likely used as a ventilation shaft, and the three portals were struck.
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So far, we’ve covered the missile bases that were bombed during the war.

Now, let’s go over some facilities related to the missile production system:

1. Shahroud Missile Assembly Plant

A plant located deep in Iran where planetary mixers and critical machines for producing missile engines were attacked. The tall structure was previously attacked by the IAF on October 26, 2024.
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2. Garmsar Chemical Plant

The site was exposed as related to MODAFL a few months ago. This is a chemical production facility linked to the production system for rocket engine fuel.

There is at least one confirmed hit on the plant.
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3. Khojir Complex

A very large military production facilities complex east of Tehran, related to the MODAFL.

Satellite imagery shows strikes on multiple buildings across various sections. Some of the targets are linked to the production system for missiles with solid fuel or liquid fuel propulsion. In nearly every section, one component was hit, likely creating a bottleneck in production operations.
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4. "Site 311" on the Qazvin-Tehran Road

This is a facility located within a tunnel with two portals, long suspected of being linked to the nuclear project. The lack of reference from the IDF spokesperson regarding its connection to the nuclear program raises questions. A second possibility is its association with the missile production system (unclear for what purpose—ballistic, surface-to-air, cruise, etc.).

Adjacent to it, one of the largest tunnel complexes in Iran that is under excavations, not yet operational.

Both tunnel portals, which were covered with hangars and reinforced, were struck, and a nearby bunker was also hit.
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Based on the information presented, it appears that over 20 missile bases were destroyed, and several facilities linked to missile production were disabled. According to open-source information, a few bases, primarily in southern and eastern Iran, were not targeted during the campaign. In central Iran, south of Qom and near Kashan, only one known base was not identified as having been struck.
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In all the strikes described, there was a clear intent to disrupt, as much as possible, the command and launch preparation capabilities of these bases - and it seems this was achieved with great success. Launchers that managed to escape and hide across Iran could operate only for a limited time, as the bases supporting them were disabled. Striking tunnel portals bought critical time and disrupted Iran’s ability to launch missiles, as the launchers and missiles in stock were not operationally available.
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With the operation’s conclusion, it can be stated with certainty that Iran’s ballistic missile array was significantly damaged. Ballistic fire originated primarily from western Iran, but with the success of targeted strikes and base destruction, most activity was pushed to central Iran - where significant disruption was also evident, leading to the transfer of fire to locations deeper in Iran.
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I estimate that the missile stockpile threatening Israel dropped from approximately 2,000 missiles to about 1,000, with most surviving in underground facilities. Rebuilding the stockpile will be delayed by at least a year due to the severe damage to the production system.

As of today, initial attempts to rebuild the bases are evident, which will cost the Iranian regime a fortune. However, I assess that a full return to the pre-campaign ballistic fire routine will take between two to three years.
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This concludes the review of the Iranian missile bases and production facilities, following the conclusion of Operation "Rising Lion", based on open-source information.

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