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Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jul 7

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant looks less dominant as more data has been shared, down to 33%, with LP.8.1.* at 31%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant finished at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus
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For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.4% per day (38% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
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XFG.* "Stratus" has mainly been reported from New York state and Maryland at 40-60%. It has also been quite common among the International Traveller samples at 44%.
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Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jul 5

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-June.

The LP.8.1.*, NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" remains dominant, at 50%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Globally, the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is showing a steady growth advantage of 3.3% per day (23% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant, with a crossover in late May.
🧵

Read 7 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jul 4

Australian Influenza and RSV cases update:

Reported Influenza cases continued to rise for June, but at a steady pace. Up to April cases were running at "flunami" pace, it now looks like either a lower or later peak than the recent "big" years.

#Influenza #RSV #Australia
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The trend for Influenza case growth in Victoria is significantly higher than the national picture. It is still tracking above the record-setting wave of 2024.
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Looking at the Influenza cases on a per-capita basis for the eastern states (7-day rolling averages), NSW is setting the pace into June, with case rates almost double those reported from Queensland.
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Read 10 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jun 28

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant rose as high as 61%, but fell back in later samples to 26%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 49%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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For the "Global - Other" countries, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant is showing a strong and accelerating growth advantage of 7.5% per day (53% per week) over the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant, with a crossover in early June.
🧵

Read 7 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jun 28

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew strongly to dominance at 41%, while LP.8.1.* fell to 25%.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew steadily, to 20%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in early June.
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XFG.* "Stratus" has mainly been reported from New York state, rising to 58% frequency. Maryland finished at 50%. It has also been quite common among the International Traveller samples at 30-35%.
🧵

Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Jun 28

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant grew strongly to dominance at around 36%. LP.8.1.* fell to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is also quite prevalent at around 19%. This is a novel scenario – until now I’ve only seen one or the other growing strongly in each country or region.
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A double-wave seems very likely in Canada. This scenario raises the risk of rapid reinfections, for those relying on immunity from a recent infection.
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Read 8 tweets

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