Thread by @P_Kallioniemi

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.

1/21

Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.

2/21

Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.

3/21

Colby served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy in Trump’s first term. He was the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, which shifted US military focus from terrorism to “great power competition” with China and Russia.

4/21

Still in 2018, Colby saw Russia very much as a threat. The NDS report called Russia a revisionist power that seeks to “shatter NATO” and control its neighbors. He framed both China and Russia as top threats to the global order.

5/21

The 2018 NDS also emphasized “deterrence by denial”, meaning the U.S. must convince adversaries like Russia that they can’t achieve their goals through force. According to Colby at that time, NATO and US alliances were central to this strategy.

6/21

Fast forward to 2025: Elbridge, now Trump’s under secretary of defense for policy, directed a halt in key US weapons shipments to Ukraine, including Patriots, HIMARS rounds, and F-16 missiles, as Russia intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilians.

7/21

Cheese’s justification was that US stockpiles are running low, and that China is the “real” threat. Ukraine, he argued, is a distraction. For US defense, Colby’s decision was mostly symbolic: the Congress-approved shipment he halted was already in Poland and contained …

8/21

…only a relatively small batch of munitions. The shipment barely made a dent in U.S. stockpiles, but it would’ve been critical for Ukraine. The whole episode felt like political theater, and at times, it almost seems like Colby has a personal vendetta against Ukraine.

9/21

Maybe the biggest problem with Cheese’s worldview is that he’s treating China, Russia, and North Korea as isolated threats, completely ignoring the fact that these countries are coordinating and collaborating together.

Hell, Russia even brought Laos into the equation.

10/21

Even though Colby’s referred to himself as a “realist,” his policy is actually just isolationism. He ignores the fact that China is supplying Russia with equipment and dual-use technology to wage war against Ukraine, and that the two are actually close allies.

11/21

The authoritarian bloc is already here: China keeps Russia afloat economically, Iran arms it, and North Korea reinforces it. They’re coordinating across continents, while Colby argues the US should only worry about Asia.

12/21

Russia’s victory in Ukraine is in alignment with China’s strategic goals. As a matter of fact, this was confirmed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang, who stated that China “can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine.” But for Cheese, Ukraine is a “distraction”.

13/21

For someone holding one of the highest positions in U.S. defense policy, Colby sure has a lot of time to argue with NAFO fellas on X. He’s claimed his feed was “inundated” and that their “aggressive, ad hominem” tactics made X unusable.

14/21

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1679024344628961280

He’s also claimed that “NAFO isn’t helping NATO or Ukraine,” even though Ukraine’s former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov personally thanked them. NAFO has received awards and support from multiple NATO countries backing Ukraine.

15/21

Like many before him (including David Sacks), Colby has hinted that NAFO might be backed by “some forms of USG and/or allied support.” In Cheese’s world, ordinary people can’t support a cause without being paid, which makes sense coming from someone deep in MAGA politics.

16/21

Today, alongside the Heritage Foundation, Colby is one of the most vocal critics of NATO within the Trump admin. Together, they’re shaping the US foreign policy shift away from transatlantic alliances, and toward isolationist Asia-first doctrine.

17/21

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1843261950710722687

In 2018, Colby warned about Russia and championed NATO. Post–Trump term one? Total pivot: Russia downplayed, NATO sidelined, and all eyes on Taiwan. Hard to tell if it’s strategy, or just auditioning for MAGA foreign policy chief.

18/21

With Colby, Trumpism changed everything. NATO became the enemy, Ukraine a distraction, and China the only threat that mattered. He went from realist strategist to MAGA-friendly mouthpiece for isolation in everything but China. At the same time, China is watching Ukraine…

19/21

…closely to decide when to invade Taiwan. The most absurd twist? Cheese, the guy who built his brand around defending Taiwan, is now backing away from that too. He says a war over Taiwan might “destroy” the US military, and that it’s not even an “existential interest.”

20/21

But gutting alliances, threatening your friends, and sidelining partners doesn’t make America stronger. It isolates the US, and ensures the country will be alone in the next global crisis, facing adversaries who are more coordinated than ever.

21/21

The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!

You can order your copy here:
vatniksoup.com/en/books/

APPENDIX:

Someone credible just told me that Cheese actually paid Tucker Carlson for an interview to help push himself forward.