Thread by @7Kiwi

Yesterday, the OBR released its Financial Risks Report that old us about the dire state of the public finances. The OBR also told us that Net Zero would cost the public purse £803bn out to 2050. But part of their analysis relies on fake numbers from the CCC. A thread🧵 (1/n)

The public cost of Net Zero is made up of lost tax revenue and increased spending and the overall cost at 21% of GDP is down from 29% the OBR's last report (2/n)

Public expenditure is at 6% of GDP is some 5 points down on their prior estimates driven by “the CCC’s downward revisions to the whole-economy costs of transition.” (3/n)

The OBR simply parrot the CCC's whole economy costs from the 7th carbon budget, estimated at £116bn by 2050. Nobody explains why the whole economy costs can be 7X lower than the cost to the public purse (4/n)

But the CCC numbers are fake. They rest on fairytale costs of renewables. The CCC say offshore wind will cost £38/MWh in 2030. But Hornsea 4, awarded a contract in AR6 at ~£85/MWh (2025 prices) was cancelled as uneconomic (5/n)

The CCC also ignore the cost of floating offshore wind that will be required to hit the capacity targets, awarded a contract at over £200/MWh in AR6 and being offered higher prices in AR7, at least 5X the CCC's estimate (6/n)

The CCC estimate of solar costs was half what was awarded in AR6. They didn't even bother to put a cost on onshore wind, expected to more than double capacity by 2050 (7/n)

https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1931624348290351313

So, the CCC numbers are junk, but the OBR has simply cut and pasted the CCC numbers. The OBR is supposed to be an independent fiscal watchdog that should conduct its own due diligence and challenge the CCC (8/n)

Instead, it's asleep at the wheel and our real fiscal position is even worse than the dire straits they describe because Net Zero will cost a lot more than their and the CCC's estimate (9/n)

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