There is no limit to our electricity bills as new spending on renewables has diminishing impact on emissions intensity. Our bills are going to infinity and beyond. A thread (1/n) First up, we need to acknowledge that measuring the emissions intensity of electricity generation is an imprecise science. Three different datasets from Ember, DUKES and NESO give different results although have a similar shape. (2/n)

Shortly before Christmas, Ofgem published its latest report on the Feed-in-Tariff scheme. Record costs impacting the poorest hardest and benefiting the rich the most. A thread 🧵 (1/n) Electricity generation und the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) scheme is actually down year-on-year and it now looks like there is a gentle downward trend emerging (2/n)

I was going to write a serious thread about Miliband's Clean Power 2030 plan, but it's just a rehash of the NESO effort. So we will explore it through the medium of a play list to explain the impact (1/n) Analysts have shown that 4,000 pensioners could die from the removal of the Winter Fuel Allowance. Many more non-pensioners could die because they lack the means to pay extortionate electricity prices. So we have Kill the Poor by the Dead Kennedys (2/n)

open.spotify.com/track/0HKbXwW3…

How do electricity suppliers manage to supply "100% green electricity" when like this week, the wind runs out of puff? A thread 🧵(1/n) As a reminder, there was a wind drought across Europe thar sent prices spiralling upwards, with day ahead prices hitting €936/MWh in Germany and Denmark (2/n)

Not too long ago, the Government launched the Subsidy Control Transparency Database. Last week it was updated with figures from renewables auction AR6. I counted £328bn of energy/Net Zero subsidies. Where is all the money going? A thread 🧵(1/n) First up, there's energy generation subsidies. £45bn for AR6, £5bn for AR5 (no offshore wind), £15bn for AR4 & £15bn for earlier rounds. An extra £3.4bn for Hornsea wind farm, £2.1bn for Walney & £1.9bn for Beatrice. £15bn for remote island wind & £31bn on FiTs. (2/n)

Electricity suppliers are in some turmoil about zonal or locational pricing, with Octopus and Greg Jackson being passionate advocates and others like SSE being much more circumspect. So, will consumers get reamed by REMA? A thread 🧵(1/n) On the one hand, Octopus commissioned a report from FTI Consulting that claimed locational pricing could reduce electricity costs by up to 99.5% for electrolyser-type loads. Effectively they could receive almost free electricity (2/n)

New data came out yesterday comparing energy prices across Europe for Jan-Jun 2024. The UK has by far the highest industrial electricity prices in Europe. This thread explores why that might be and how we fare in domestic markets too. (1/n) For medium UK industrial users, prices are 188% higher than the EU14 median. For large & v large users the relative position is worse with UK prices >150% above EU14 median prices. Bear in mind, in 2023 UK prices were also 4X those of the US & 2.6X Korea. (2/n)

COP29 has finished with an agreement to provide $300bn/yr of public funds, up from $100bn/yr but much less than the demand of $1trn/yr. Starmer has also committed UK to an emissions cut of 81% by 2035. Just how effective are these COP meetings? A thread 🧵(1/n) First up, global emissions have soared off the chart, so the $100bn/yr has made no difference. Last year emissions rose by more than UK emissions that now make up just 0.81% of the total. (2/n)

Adding to the earlier thread on the REPD. It is also worth looking at what has happened to the CfD contracts that have been awarded (1/n)

https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1858091843147518421

Let's start by looking at offshore wind. You may CfDs were awarded to 7GW of offshore wind projects in AR4 and this was hailed as a great victory and there were claims that wind was 9 times cheaper than gas (2/n)

We hear that the "climate crisis" is urgent & cannot wait for nuclear power to come online because renewables are so quick to deploy, but permitting is an issue. But is it really true? Prepare to be enlightened (1/n) The Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD) lists 1,000's of renewables projects dating back decades. Looking at the projected granted permission from 2008 to 2020 we can select those that haven't started construction and not operational (see above) (2/n)

A new paper demonstrates that when it comes to Net Zero, our think tanks all think alike. But when everyone is thinking alike, no one is thinking at all. Time to make think tanks think again. A thread 🧵(1/n) The paper in question comes from @CPSThinkTank. It accepts the premise of Net Zero and claims that if we tinker with it using the 20 ideas in the paper, we can make Net Zero palatable (2/n)

Slye Outfoxes Miliband on Clean Power by 2030

NESO's plan for a Net Zero grid by 2030 is so fantastical, it requires Mad Miliband to believe six impossible things before breakfast. A thread 🧵(1/n) First up, we have to believe that spending £44-48bn/yr or £264-290bn by 2030 is achievable. This is over 4X the rate from 2020-2024. The Government can't fund it, and we won't stand for it in our bills (2/n)

The Climate Change Committee has been in the headlines again, demanding we cut emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. What does this mean in a global context and do the proposed measures add up? A 🧵(1/n) This chart from OWID sets global emissions in context. Global emissions have risen the UK's fell. Global emissions grew by 333m tonnes in 2022, more than the UK total of 319m tonnes. We now represent 0.86% of the global total. Claims of climate leadership are risible. (2/n)

There has been a furore about the damaging effects of Rachel Reeves first budget. But was is the impact of #Budget24 on energy policy. A mixed bag, with some good news, but quite a lot of bad. A thread 🧵(1/n) First the good news. Fuel duty was frozen again & the planned indexation in 2025/26 has been cancelled, which the Govt claim will save £59/yr for the average driver. The climate zealots are furious, but don't mention we already pay ~£25bn/yr in fuel duty. (2/n)

Time to don my tin hat and flak jacket and bust the fossil fuel subsidy myth. There's a form of Godwin's Law that says that when discussing renewables subsidies someone say: "Ackshually, fossil fuels are subsidised more than renewables." But it's a lie. A 🧵(1/n) The IEA defines fossil fuel subsidies as “measures that reduce the effective price of fossil fuels below world market prices.” The IEA does not include the UK as one its Top-25 subsidisers (2/n)

The Chocolate Teapot Fallacy

The Battle of Ideas tells us Greens need to sharpen their arguments, because they are losing the debate on Net Zero. I was at #BattleFest at the weekend, primarily for the energy discussions. (1/n) First up was a debate on the future of nuclear power. Speaking against the idea of a nuclear @robertreidALBA who was in mourning for the late Alec Salmond. We can forgive him for advancing the idea that offshore wind is cheap: he claimed £41/MWh without citing any sources. (2/n)

Good morning. A short thread on how the recent international investment summit is going to increase our already extortionate energy bills (1/n) Notwithstanding, nearly two thirds of the investments "announced" at the summit had been announced before (2/n)

AI Will Destroy the Net Zero Energy Demand Targets

Over the past few months, the newswires have been hot with stories about the hyper-scale datacentres required for the forthcoming AI revolution. What will these demands mean of for Net Zero plans? 🧵(1/n) In March Amazon bought a 960MW data centre adjacent to the Susquehanna nuclear power plant. Meta is worried that energy requirements may hold back AI development. (2/n)
ans.org/news/article-5…

A couple of weeks ago, I posted some tweets showing the UK had the highest electricity prices in the IEA. I now have a full article and thread. Starting with industrial gas prices (1/n) UK industrial gas prices are some 7% below the IEA median, but 5X higher than US gas prices (2/n)

Record CfD subsidies for August
After last week's revelations that we have the highest domestic and industrial electricity prices in the world, you might be wondering why. Record August CfD subsidies are part of the answer (1/n) Overall CfD subsidies rose sharply in August 2024 to a total of £237m, the third highest on record and by far the highest for the highest for the month of August. (2/n)

Labour's top two missions for Government are 1) highest sustained growth in the G7 and 2) is to deliver a zero-carbon grid by 2030. A thread 🧵on why this is Mission Impossible: the two missions cannot be achieved simultaneously (1/n) Labour rightly acknowledge that the key to long term sustainable growth is through improvements in productivity. From 1997-2008 the UK was amongst the productivity leaders (2/n)