πΊπΈπͺπΊπΊπ¦ Notable Europe & Ukraine policy provisions in the Senate's draft FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, including an authorized increase in military aid funding:
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1/6
The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is extended through 2028 and an increased amount of $500 million is authorized, compared to $300 million annually in the past several years. HASC authorized $300 million and the budget request was for $0.
2/6
DoD is directed to establish a depot-level maintenance plan for all of Ukraine's western supplied equipment, and Sec Def is required to continue intelligence cooperation with Ukraine. Security cooperation with Ukraine is reaffirmed as US policy.
3/6
Sec Def is required to report on options to accelerate the JUMPSTART program, through which third party countries can finance Foreign Military Sales for Ukraine. This synergizes with the latest policy deliberations in the White House on this topic.
4/6
Directs Sec Def to consider which NATO allies have credible plans to get to 5% of GDP on defense as a factor in determining future US military basing and training agreements.
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Prohibits a reduction in US military posture in Europe or relinquishment of SACEUR unless SecDef certifies to Congress that it is in US national security interests, and directs CJCS & SACEUR to conduct an independent assessment of any such changes.
6/6
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πΊπΈπΊπ¦ Yesterday, POLITICO broke that the Pentagon paused some shipments of ammo to Ukraine. The decision, driven by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is claimed by DoD to be in response to concerns about their own stockpiles.
Is that true?
No. It is not.
π§΅ β¬οΈ 1/19
Department of Defense stocks of a wide variety of munitions are undoubtedly depleted due to the War in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, but the devil is always in the details. POLITICO reports that the pause has impacted both deliveries under PDA & USAI.
2/19
PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) is the mechanism for delivery of defense articles to Ukraine from DoD stocks. USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) allows for the procurement of defense articles from industry or partner countries.
π¨πΊπΈ Looks like ATACMS is back on the menu, boys!
The House & Senate Armed Services Committees have released bill text detailing the $150 billion increase in defense spending, as part of Congressional Republicans' reconciliation package.
Here's select highlights. π§΅ β¬οΈ
1/20
Pictured is a high level overview of where the money would go, and here is the link to the bill text:
I will be focusing mostly on procurement & RDTE items that are of interest to me. I don't follow shipbuilding, ask Zach about that over on BS.
πΊπΈ President Trump has signed an expected Executive Order on reforming the United States' arms sales (Foreign Military Sales [FMS] & Direct Commercial Sale [DCS]) processes.
Thread on my initial takeaways. π§΅β¬οΈ
1/14
Currently security cooperation (SC) responsibilities are split between the Departments of Defense and State; each has different programs under their purview but agreement between both is required for basically all of them in order to approve a SC case (FMS, DCS, etc).
2/14
Consolidating decision-making could be a positive development. It's my view that security cooperation should be entirely within the purview of DoD, but this would entail massive legislative changes to the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) & Foreign Assistance Act (FAA).
πΊπΈπΊπ¦π·πΊ Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. ~Unclassified estimate from US European Command
Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. π§΅β¬οΈ
1/10
Losses:
π₯3000 Tanks
π₯9000 AFVs
π₯13,000 artillery systems
π₯400 air defense systems
During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.
2/10
He states Russia "is on pace to replace all [losses]", but this is missing important context. They aren't producing new vehicles in any large quantity, but rather refurbishing vehicles from storage. Once those stocks are exhausted production will plummet. π₯ via @hizzo_jay
πΊπΈπΊπ¦ As President Joe Biden serves out his final weeks in office, he still has the opportunity to correct his past mistakes, and put Ukraine on better footing as we start the new year. Here's what should be done. β¬οΈ
π§΅ 1/9
If you want to read beyond these highlights, check out my latest for @InsiderEng, which explores this in more length. I also touch on the question of what we might expect from the incoming Trump Admin and the new Congress in the US.
βπΊπΈπ¨π³ "US Army and Joint Electronic Warfare (EW) forces in the
Indo-Pacific are outnumbered, outranged, and outpowered by those possessed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA)." -Army Science Board White Paper on EW
Let's see what else it has to say?
π§΅β¬οΈ 1/14
"there is no executive agent or proponent [for EW] designated at the highest level of the Army to ensure appropriate resourcing of critical functions, equipment, training, and staffing."
A Deputy Assistant Secretary for EW, reporting to ASA(ALT) could be created for this.
2/14
"The PLA's space capabilities closely match or exceed those of US Army Pacific (USARPAC)."
"The Army makes operational and resourcing decisions based on analytical data that supports value to the warfighter, but its EW discipline lacks this analysis capability."