From the Barents Sea to China’s southern coast, Russia’s tanker fleet has been quietly tracked by Ukrainians. Thanks to an investigation by the analytical group Dallas Park, we now know more. With their permission, I analyzed the report and put together a thread of key takeaways:
2/ Built in 2011 and flagged in the Marshall Islands as SUEZ VASILIS, the oil tanker was reflagged to Liberia in 2021 and renamed NAUTILUS I. In November 2022, after Russia’s invasion, it changed owners, managers, flag, and name again, becoming SABLE under the Panama
3/ In November 2023, Mikhail Gushchin became the ship’s master, according to a signed contract in Primorsk, Russia. At the time, the vessel was managed by Prominent Shipmanagement Limited.
4/ Thanks to screenshots taken by Gushchin himself, it’s confirmed that SABLE made at least two trips to China during his command. One screenshot, dated November 20, 2023, shows the vessel en route from Primorsk to Zhoushan, China, with an expected arrival around December 20.
5/ On December 19, Gushchin received new routing instructions. Gazpromneft, the Russian oil giant, told him to sail to the Suez Canal after delivery and await further orders. According to logs, the vessel left Murmansk in early February 2024, carrying 140,000 tonnes of Arctic oil
6/ On February 2, Gushchin received additional orders: he was to load 140,000 tonnes of another Arctic crude (ARCO grade) in Kola Bay, near Murmansk. He photographed the loading between February 4 and 5 -- notably, it took place via ship-to-ship transfer.
7/ The tanker then continued through the Suez Canal en route to China. On February 13, Gushchin sent a report to his employers at Gazpromneft revealing the voyage’s final destination: the Chinese port of Shuidong, with an expected arrival on March 18, 2024.
8/ The unloading of Russian oil was scheduled for March 19–21, 2024. Below is an Excel form filled out by Gushchin for the Chinese port, showing the vessel order for cargo unloading - SABLE is listed as number one. Also included: a photo taken near the Chinese coast:
9/ In January 2025, the U.S. tightened sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, targeting over 180 vessels - including Sable. However, even if China officially bans sanctioned ships from entering its ports, it can still receive Russian oil through offshore transfers
10/ Another emerging issue is Russia’s use of the Northern Sea Route to bypass restrictions, as shown in this navigation record of the Mikhail Ulyanov tanker en route from Russia to China. Solving this problem will require more sophisticated countermeasures
11/ Thanks for reading this investigation. If you found it valuable, please like and share the first post in the thread - and consider following. I also strongly recommend checking out the full report by Dallas Park, which includes many more details:
One and a half months after the successful Operation Spiderweb, which targeted and destroyed Russian strategic bombers, our latest satellite imagery shows bomber wreckage still at several airfields, with the largest concentration at Belaya. A thread with updates on airbases:
2/ Additional analysis of bases such as Olenya and Engels-2, where Russian strategic bombers are deployed, shows no visible effort to reinforce the airfields. Olenya appears more cleared from debris than Belaya Airbase, but bomber wreckage remains visible on the apron.
3/ At Khalino Airbase, previously targeted by Ukrainian forces, Russian troops appear to have completed or nearly completed around 10 reinforced shelters with soil cover, 12 concrete shelters without it, and 8 hangar-style structures positioned on the aprons.
Mobilization, payouts, demographics, and desertions are central factors shaping the war’s trajectory. Thanks to weekly notes by the Conflict Intelligence Team, we have some data to analyze the current state of affairs in Russia. Below are some key points from the past two weeks:
2/ The sign-up bonus for contracts with the Ministry of Defense in the Novosibirsk region will double from 800,000 rubles ($10200), set in December 2024, to 1.6 million rubles ($20400) between July 1 and September 30. An additional 400,000 will be given from the federal budget
3/ The sign-up bonus with the Ministry of Defense in Vladimir region has been raised to 2.1 million rubles ($26,700) for the period from July 1 to September 30. This marks the third increase in 2025, following rises to 1 million rubles in January and 1.6 million in April.
Did you know Russia’s Su-34 and Su-35S jets, used in bombing campaigns, contain over 1,100 microelectronic parts from 11 Global Export Control Coalition countries? A new joint investigation by IPHR, NAKO, and Hunterbrook uncovers the supply chain. 🧵Thread with key takeaways:
2/ Most components come from the US, but the supply chain spans Germany to Japan. Of 891 parts from 138 firms, 59% are under strict export controls. 36.3% of shipments were small-value (less than $10000), pointing at intermediaries and shell companies use to evade sanctions
3/ Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia continues to receive Western semiconductors at industrial scale. An analysis of more than 180,000 customs records from 2023 shows approximately $805.6 million worth of microelectronics arriving from top-tier global suppliers.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the Shahed numbers and noted the following trends and figures🧵:
2/ The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total, proving growing production. This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2500 decoys
3/ Ukrainian Air Force data shows 5,438 drones of this type were launched at Ukraine in June 2025 - about twice the number cited by Zelensky. The gap likely comes from the Air Force counting both Geran and decoys UAVs, while Zelensky referred only to strictly Geran drones
As Ukraine marked Naval Forces Day, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet started the morning fending off a joint air and sea drone attack on its base in Novorossiysk. Early footage shows no major damage. Our team reviewed satellite imagery from the day before, here’s what we know🧵:
2/ As of July 5, four Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines were present at the Novorossiysk naval base - which is nearly the entire remaining operational submarine force of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. These submarines are equipped to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
3/ Valuable naval assets, including an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, minesweepers, patrol boats, and corvettes, were anchored in the bay at the time of the attack. The strike occurred overnight, and by late morning, local authorities declared the situation to be safe