ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jul 15 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russian warbloggers say that the message from Donald Trump is clear: Russia is free to do anything it wants in Ukraine over the next 50 days. They advise the Russian government to "wreck Ukraine" in "the promised, bloodiest period" ahead. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' asks, "Where did the unusual 50 days come from for Trump, who previously liked to measure everything in two weeks?" It comes up with the same answer as many Western commentators – that it matches Putin's timeframe for completing his conquests:
3/ "▪️Today, Axios published an article stating that Vladimir Putin, during a phone call with Trump, said that Russia would attempt to establish control over all entities included in the Russian constitution [i.e. taking control of all annexed regions] within the next 60 days. Image
4/ "▪️The telephone conversation between Putin and Trump took place exactly 10 days ago – on July 3. That is, of the supposedly announced 60 days, there are currently 50 days left.
5/ "▪️As a result, today Trump is declaring exactly 50 days for concluding a deal on Ukraine, threatening secondary sanctions and duties."
6/ "Fighterbomber' concludes: "In fact, the United States gives us 50 days to take more advantageous positions, liberate our territories and conduct active combat operations in the most favourable conditions, with minimal amounts of assistance in weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
7/ "50 days is just before the onset of autumn and the transition of the war to the positional stage.

50 days is just the time to understand whether the launch of thousands of Gerans [Shahed drones] and Gerberas [decoy drones] will bring a strategic turning point in the war.
8/ "And in 50 days, the existing factual situation will be put on the table at new negotiations between us and the US.

We will see what we can put on the table in 50 days. I hope we still have some aces up our sleeves that we can put on the table at the right time."
9/ 'ZONE OF TRUTH' says:

"Trump gives Putin 2 months of carte blanche...

Moreover, equalising the chances of both sides, he gives the [Ukrainians] long-range weapons and air defence.

Well, that same promised, bloodiest period is now ahead."
10/ 'NgP raZVedka' looks forward to Russia "wreck[ing] Ukraine in a month and a half": "We have 50 days, several thousand Geraniums, Iskanders, Kh-101s, Kalibrs, and three tons of tarragon. Not that all of this was necessary, but ... you have to take things seriously." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 17
1/ The occupied regions of Ukraine are facing a deepening ecological and economic crisis, with critical shortages of water, rapid desertification, and the collapse of agriculture and industries across the occupied territories. Russia is doing little to resolve it. ⬇️ Image
2/ Southern and eastern Ukraine have a naturally hot and dry summer climate that is being exacerbated by climate change. Until Soviet irrigation initiatives in the 1950s, the southern mainland of Ukraine and the interior of the Crimean peninsula were arid semi-deserts.
3/ The now-destroyed Kakhovka Reservoir alone supplied more than 12,000 km of canals in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with reservoirs supplying Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. Water supplies depend on infrastructure neglected or destroyed in the war. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 16
1/ A leaked list of casualties from a Russian battalion taking part in an offensive suggests a killed/wounded ratio of 1:36 to 1. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, losses stand at over 100,000 dead this year alone. ⬇️ Image
2/ A reported list of the losses of the Russian 3rd Motorised Rifle Battalion of the 9th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 71443) lists 163 casualties in only a month. Daily casualties are stated to be between 5 and 10 per day.
3/ This is almost certainly an underestimate, as commanders often underreport losses to make themselves look better or to exclude those who have been executed or tortured to death by their own side. The brigade is known for cruelty towards its men.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 16
1/ Filthy water and exploding comrades: a Russian soldier in Ukraine provides an insight into daily life, trapped in a cellar on the front line under Ukrainian attacks. ⬇️
2/ In a short video, a Russian soldier shows what he is drinking. "We drink this water from some reservoir. Muddy, bitter. Well, thank God that there is such water."
3/ (While some on the front do have water purification equipment, they often do not and have to drink impure water, including from puddles and dripping water in their dugouts. Diarrhoea and worse are reportedly quite common.)
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16
1/ FOOL'S GOLD IN UKRAINE, PART 3: The Russian government promises bonuses to soldiers who destroy Ukrainian tanks and seize positions – but it's unlikely that they will long enjoy the benefits. Former Russian soldier Igor S. explains more about the illusory riches of the war. ⬇️ Image
2/ For part 1, see the thread below.
Read 22 tweets
Jul 15
1/ FOOL'S GOLD IN UKRAINE, PART 2: Former Russian soldier Igor S. from Chuvashia was invalided out of the Russian army after sustaining injuries at Chasiv Yar. This thread continues his account of how the riches promised to Russians fighting in Ukraine are illusory. ⬇️ Image
2/ For part 1, see the thread below.
3/ Igor writes:

"How did our "Ministry of Finance" work? Very simple: we handed over cards with a PIN code, they were at the base in Berdiansk [in the occupied part of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region]."
Read 30 tweets
Jul 15
1/ Most Russian soldiers go to Ukraine hoping to earn life-changing amounts of money. As one ex-soldier from Chuvashia describes, however, the reality is very different: the only things that are free are "ammunition and body bags", and soldiers have to buy everything else. ⬇️ Image
2/ 46-year-old Igor S. from Chuvashia survived the Ukraine war at the cost of an eye and many fragmentation injuries. He has described his experiences with the Russian army from his mobilisation in September 2022 to his discharge following injuries sustained in January 2024.
3/ A participant in the Chechen wars, he went to Ukraine "not because I am a super-patriot or because I want to conquer Ukraine. It’s just that there is no one to take to war from our village – young people and old people. The men left because there is no work or prospects."
Read 35 tweets

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