🧵
Why China Does Not Want War With the United States—Even If It Has Military Supremacy
It is becoming increasingly clear that China now holds a decisive military edge in many areas over the United States. It has built a war machine optimized for network-centric warfare, outpacing the U.S. in electronic jamming, long-range missile precision, radar integration, and regional air dominance. It can deny access, blind satellites, and overwhelm fleets.
But military supremacy doesn’t mean recklessness. China has the ability to win battles. But it has no interest in starting a war—because it understands the cost of victory might be national suicide.
Let us begin with a basic truth. China is not self-sufficient when it comes to economic demand. Its internal market is still maturing.
Who feeds the Chinese people economically? The answer is: the world—especially the rich, Western world.
China’s total foreign trade in 2024 hit 43.85 trillion yuan (~US$6 trillion), with exports accounting for 25.45 trillion yuan (~US$3.47 trillion). This figure is often downplayed by critics who claim “exports only represent around 18–30% of China’s GDP.” But such figures miss the structural importance of exports: they power the coastal provinces, which in turn power the entire nation.
The bulk of China’s industrial and export muscle is concentrated in six coastal provinces:
1. Guangdong (~US$888 billion exports)
2. Zhejiang (~US$532 billion)
3. Jiangsu (~US$518 billion)
4. Shandong (~US$272 billion)
5. Shanghai (~US$255 billion)
6. Fujian (~US$167 billion)
Together, these provinces account for the majority of China's exports. They are also home to China’s largest ports—Shenzhen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao—which function as lifelines for both imports and exports.
Once war breaks out, these ports will shut down—either by enemy blockade, missile strikes, or insurance collapse. That means factories stop, logistics freeze, and tens of millions are thrown into unemployment.
Some believe China can pivot to trade with the Global South—BRICS, Belt and Road nations, Africa, Latin America. It’s a comforting illusion.
Here’s the problem: China mainly imports resources from the Global South—oil, gas, lithium, bauxite, copper, iron ore—not finished goods. It uses these to manufacture high-end products.
But who consumes these products? The West.
In 2024:
Exports to the United States totaled 3.73 trillion yuan (approx. 514 billion USD)
Exports to the European Union: 3.68 trillion yuan (approx. 508 billion USD)
Exports to Japan and South Korea: over 1.5 trillion yuan combined (approx. 207 billion USD)
- ASEAN nations were the top partner bloc, but much of this was processing trade with end-markets in the West
This adds up to nearly half of China's total exports going to Western or high-income markets.
These are the only markets with the income level and consumer appetite to absorb the full output of Chinese industry.
Remove them from the equation—and the entire chain collapses.
Here’s how a war, or even a serious blockade, would detonate the economy:
1. Western demand disappears
2. China stops exporting to Europe, the U.S., Japan, South Korea.
3. China no longer needs to import energy, iron ore, or copper from BRICS and the Global South
4. Global South trade drastically drops—because there’s no downstream use
5. Coastal factories go silent
6. Wealth stops flowing inland
7. Domestic consumption drops
8. Local governments collapse under fiscal pressure
9. Unemployment skyrockets
10. Social unrest erupts
That’s the chain reaction. It would a few months, not years.
Despite all efforts to de-dollarize, to promote RMB trade, to build an alternative system—this is still a Western-centric global economy.
Even in 2024, over 59% of Chinese exports were mechanical and electrical products—designed for Western consumers, not subsistence economies.
👇
Why China Does Not Want War With the United States—Even If It Has Military Supremacy
It is becoming increasingly clear that China now holds a decisive military edge in many areas over the United States. It has built a war machine optimized for network-centric warfare, outpacing the U.S. in electronic jamming, long-range missile precision, radar integration, and regional air dominance. It can deny access, blind satellites, and overwhelm fleets.
But military supremacy doesn’t mean recklessness. China has the ability to win battles. But it has no interest in starting a war—because it understands the cost of victory might be national suicide.
Let us begin with a basic truth. China is not self-sufficient when it comes to economic demand. Its internal market is still maturing.
Who feeds the Chinese people economically? The answer is: the world—especially the rich, Western world.
China’s total foreign trade in 2024 hit 43.85 trillion yuan (~US$6 trillion), with exports accounting for 25.45 trillion yuan (~US$3.47 trillion). This figure is often downplayed by critics who claim “exports only represent around 18–30% of China’s GDP.” But such figures miss the structural importance of exports: they power the coastal provinces, which in turn power the entire nation.
The bulk of China’s industrial and export muscle is concentrated in six coastal provinces:
1. Guangdong (~US$888 billion exports)
2. Zhejiang (~US$532 billion)
3. Jiangsu (~US$518 billion)
4. Shandong (~US$272 billion)
5. Shanghai (~US$255 billion)
6. Fujian (~US$167 billion)
Together, these provinces account for the majority of China's exports. They are also home to China’s largest ports—Shenzhen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao—which function as lifelines for both imports and exports.
Once war breaks out, these ports will shut down—either by enemy blockade, missile strikes, or insurance collapse. That means factories stop, logistics freeze, and tens of millions are thrown into unemployment.
Some believe China can pivot to trade with the Global South—BRICS, Belt and Road nations, Africa, Latin America. It’s a comforting illusion.
Here’s the problem: China mainly imports resources from the Global South—oil, gas, lithium, bauxite, copper, iron ore—not finished goods. It uses these to manufacture high-end products.
But who consumes these products? The West.
In 2024:
Exports to the United States totaled 3.73 trillion yuan (approx. 514 billion USD)
Exports to the European Union: 3.68 trillion yuan (approx. 508 billion USD)
Exports to Japan and South Korea: over 1.5 trillion yuan combined (approx. 207 billion USD)
- ASEAN nations were the top partner bloc, but much of this was processing trade with end-markets in the West
This adds up to nearly half of China's total exports going to Western or high-income markets.
These are the only markets with the income level and consumer appetite to absorb the full output of Chinese industry.
Remove them from the equation—and the entire chain collapses.
Here’s how a war, or even a serious blockade, would detonate the economy:
1. Western demand disappears
2. China stops exporting to Europe, the U.S., Japan, South Korea.
3. China no longer needs to import energy, iron ore, or copper from BRICS and the Global South
4. Global South trade drastically drops—because there’s no downstream use
5. Coastal factories go silent
6. Wealth stops flowing inland
7. Domestic consumption drops
8. Local governments collapse under fiscal pressure
9. Unemployment skyrockets
10. Social unrest erupts
That’s the chain reaction. It would a few months, not years.
Despite all efforts to de-dollarize, to promote RMB trade, to build an alternative system—this is still a Western-centric global economy.
Even in 2024, over 59% of Chinese exports were mechanical and electrical products—designed for Western consumers, not subsistence economies.
👇
II/
A war with the United States means the immediate blockade of China, financial decoupling, shipping paralysis, and global panic. And not just for China.
If China’s factories go dark, the global supply chain collapses with them:
- No iPhones No smartphones
- No electric vehicles
- No solar panels
- No semiconductors
- No rare earth magnets for Western industries
- Inflation spirals in the West
- BRICS economies lose their largest industrial client
This is not just China’s economic collapse. It’s a global economic meltdown—a modern Lehman Brothers moment, multiplied by 100.
China understands clearly: starting a war with the United States is national suicide. But the same truth applies in reverse—only more so. For the United States, launching a war with China would be a deeper, faster death, economically and strategically. Yet Washington’s political class is far more reckless, more prone to delusions of dominance. So every argument I make here about restraint, calculation, and national survival applies equally—if not more urgently—to the United States.
Please don’t give me that tired line about decoupling from China and collapsing its economy. The West has tried—again and again—to kick China out of the global supply chain, to shift manufacturing to India, Vietnam, Mexico, wherever. It's been over a decade, and it still doesn't work. There is no alternative to China’s manufacturing base. Once production moves to China, it’s like a black hole—it never comes out. That’s the brutal truth. Nearly all of China’s manufacturing, like its rare earth supply, is irreplaceable. And if you try to replicate it elsewhere, be ready to pay 30% to 10 times more. Tariffs didn’t stop the West from importing Chinese goods. Because if the West doesn’t import from China, inflation will explode—and their own economies will crumble.
China is patient, sees far and wide when it comes to strategy. It knows it can dominate regionally. It knows it can win militarily. But it also knows that war, at this moment, would be suicidal—not just for itself, but for the world economy.
So China continues to build strength, reshape alliances, and rewrite trade architecture.
But it will avoid war—not out of fear, but out of understanding.
Because in this system, the first nation to pull the trigger also pulls the plug.
A war with the United States means the immediate blockade of China, financial decoupling, shipping paralysis, and global panic. And not just for China.
If China’s factories go dark, the global supply chain collapses with them:
- No iPhones No smartphones
- No electric vehicles
- No solar panels
- No semiconductors
- No rare earth magnets for Western industries
- Inflation spirals in the West
- BRICS economies lose their largest industrial client
This is not just China’s economic collapse. It’s a global economic meltdown—a modern Lehman Brothers moment, multiplied by 100.
China understands clearly: starting a war with the United States is national suicide. But the same truth applies in reverse—only more so. For the United States, launching a war with China would be a deeper, faster death, economically and strategically. Yet Washington’s political class is far more reckless, more prone to delusions of dominance. So every argument I make here about restraint, calculation, and national survival applies equally—if not more urgently—to the United States.
Please don’t give me that tired line about decoupling from China and collapsing its economy. The West has tried—again and again—to kick China out of the global supply chain, to shift manufacturing to India, Vietnam, Mexico, wherever. It's been over a decade, and it still doesn't work. There is no alternative to China’s manufacturing base. Once production moves to China, it’s like a black hole—it never comes out. That’s the brutal truth. Nearly all of China’s manufacturing, like its rare earth supply, is irreplaceable. And if you try to replicate it elsewhere, be ready to pay 30% to 10 times more. Tariffs didn’t stop the West from importing Chinese goods. Because if the West doesn’t import from China, inflation will explode—and their own economies will crumble.
China is patient, sees far and wide when it comes to strategy. It knows it can dominate regionally. It knows it can win militarily. But it also knows that war, at this moment, would be suicidal—not just for itself, but for the world economy.
So China continues to build strength, reshape alliances, and rewrite trade architecture.
But it will avoid war—not out of fear, but out of understanding.
Because in this system, the first nation to pull the trigger also pulls the plug.
III/
Why the U.S. Wants a War with China—And Why China Refuses to Give It
The country most eager to provoke China into war is the United States. Not because it thinks it can win—but because it knows it’s running out of time.
Let’s be clear: China doesn’t fear a war with the United States. It never has. When the People's Republic was still dirt-poor and broken, it marched north to face the U.S. military head-on in Korea.
Today, with its full industrial might and cutting-edge arsenal, China is far stronger. It is not fear that keeps Beijing from firing the first shot. It’s the knowledge that war, at this moment, would cost too much.
Let me repeat the statistics. By 2024, China’s GDP had soared to 134.9 trillion yuan (approx. 18.6 trillion USD). Roughly 30% of that came from exports. Last year, China’s total import-export volume surpassed 43 trillion yuan (approx. 5.9 trillion USD). Behind those numbers are real people—hundreds of millions of livelihoods, hundreds of millions of jobs.
And capital, as everyone knows, is a coward. The moment war begins, global capital will flee. Factories will fall silent. Export orders will vanish—even if the fighting is far from China's heartland. The shockwave will hit first in trade and manufacturing, but it will not stop there. It will ripple into every corner of the economy. And for a country that must feed and employ 1.4 billion people, that collapse is not something to gamble with.
That is why China is not rushing to war. Not because it can’t win, but because it understands the cost of victory without stability.
China absolutely does not want to find itself in the same predicament as Russia—trapped in a drawn-out war with no clear exit, no defined endgame, and no timeline for de-escalation. From the outset, Russia never articulated when or how the war would end, and that’s precisely the kind of strategic quagmire China is determined to avoid.
But what about the United States?
Why is Washington so eager?
The answer is simple: the war won’t be fought on American soil. It will be fought in East Asia—at China’s doorstep, not theirs. If Taiwan burns, if Japan bleeds, if Australia suffers—it will not touch the U.S. homeland. American corporations will keep operating. Wall Street will keep trading. Capital has no reason to flee. Even if American aircraft carriers are sunk and jets are shot down, the U.S. itself won’t be hurt. Its body will remain intact. Only the fingers get bruised.
And in the short term, a war could be a financial windfall. The moment the U.S. is involved, defense stocks will surge. Capital will pour into military contractors. After all, the US Republican Party—the party of war—is backed by the arms industry.
The moment a war breaks out, capital will flee China and Southeast Asia, rushing back to the United States—triggering a wave of capital flight and, possibly, some partial reshoring of manufacturing to American soil.
A foreign war is a rallying cry, a profit engine, and a political distraction all at once.
Why the U.S. Wants a War with China—And Why China Refuses to Give It
The country most eager to provoke China into war is the United States. Not because it thinks it can win—but because it knows it’s running out of time.
Let’s be clear: China doesn’t fear a war with the United States. It never has. When the People's Republic was still dirt-poor and broken, it marched north to face the U.S. military head-on in Korea.
Today, with its full industrial might and cutting-edge arsenal, China is far stronger. It is not fear that keeps Beijing from firing the first shot. It’s the knowledge that war, at this moment, would cost too much.
Let me repeat the statistics. By 2024, China’s GDP had soared to 134.9 trillion yuan (approx. 18.6 trillion USD). Roughly 30% of that came from exports. Last year, China’s total import-export volume surpassed 43 trillion yuan (approx. 5.9 trillion USD). Behind those numbers are real people—hundreds of millions of livelihoods, hundreds of millions of jobs.
And capital, as everyone knows, is a coward. The moment war begins, global capital will flee. Factories will fall silent. Export orders will vanish—even if the fighting is far from China's heartland. The shockwave will hit first in trade and manufacturing, but it will not stop there. It will ripple into every corner of the economy. And for a country that must feed and employ 1.4 billion people, that collapse is not something to gamble with.
That is why China is not rushing to war. Not because it can’t win, but because it understands the cost of victory without stability.
China absolutely does not want to find itself in the same predicament as Russia—trapped in a drawn-out war with no clear exit, no defined endgame, and no timeline for de-escalation. From the outset, Russia never articulated when or how the war would end, and that’s precisely the kind of strategic quagmire China is determined to avoid.
But what about the United States?
Why is Washington so eager?
The answer is simple: the war won’t be fought on American soil. It will be fought in East Asia—at China’s doorstep, not theirs. If Taiwan burns, if Japan bleeds, if Australia suffers—it will not touch the U.S. homeland. American corporations will keep operating. Wall Street will keep trading. Capital has no reason to flee. Even if American aircraft carriers are sunk and jets are shot down, the U.S. itself won’t be hurt. Its body will remain intact. Only the fingers get bruised.
And in the short term, a war could be a financial windfall. The moment the U.S. is involved, defense stocks will surge. Capital will pour into military contractors. After all, the US Republican Party—the party of war—is backed by the arms industry.
The moment a war breaks out, capital will flee China and Southeast Asia, rushing back to the United States—triggering a wave of capital flight and, possibly, some partial reshoring of manufacturing to American soil.
A foreign war is a rallying cry, a profit engine, and a political distraction all at once.
IV/
But the deeper reason is strategic panic. Over the past year, China has stunned the world with waves of military innovation: drone swarms, amphibious assault ships, sixth-generation fighters, humanoid robots, hypersonic engines, and satellite-based laser systems. The balance is shifting—quietly, rapidly, irreversibly.
And America knows it. That’s why some U.S. strategists believe 2027 is their last real chance. Beyond that year, the odds slip further out of reach. The Pentagon knows it. RAND knows it. The republican hawks know it: once the window closes, it never opens again.
And so the U.S. is rushing to provoke a war not to win it, but to delay the inevitable—to buy time through destruction. Taiwan is merely the stage. The war they want is marginal, offshore, and deniable—a proxy war fought far from home, where others pay the price and Washington reaps the spoils. If China is dragged into the mud, the U.S. gains space to rally its allies, impose sanctions, cripple Chinese industries, and fracture global trade.
But China’s leadership is not so easily baited. The strategic discipline in Beijing far exceeds anything Washington has mustered in recent years. You’ll notice it—how China accelerates its military buildup, yet quietly stabilizes its economy. How it prepares for war without rushing into one. How it builds strength not for the sake of conflict, but to prevent one.
The goal is not to avoid war forever, but to ensure that if it comes, China will fight on its terms—with the strength to endure and the power to win.
So no, China is not the one facing a choice. The one who must choose is the United States.
To the left: a reckless gamble, mutual destruction, and a war that burns allies first.
To the right: decline, displacement, and the quiet rise of a new world order.
Neither path is ideal for Washington. But the clock is ticking, and the choice is no longer China's to make.
The United States, as always, wants a proxy war—one fought on someone else’s land, with someone else’s people as cannon fodder, and someone else’s cities reduced to rubble, just as it orchestrated in Ukraine. Ukraine today is a shattered nation, with hundreds of thousands—perhaps millions—of lives lost, all while the U.S. stays comfortably in the background. But China will not play by those rules. If war begins, China will not allow it to unfold on its own soil or let others bleed in the place of the Americans. Instead, it will strike directly at the source. The war will not be confined to the Taiwan Strait—it will extend to wherever U.S. military bases are located, because once those bases join the war, they become legitimate targets. Guam, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Philippines—every U.S. outpost will be in China’s sights. The American dream of watching others burn from a safe distance is just that—a dream. And China is determined to shatter it from day one.
But the deeper reason is strategic panic. Over the past year, China has stunned the world with waves of military innovation: drone swarms, amphibious assault ships, sixth-generation fighters, humanoid robots, hypersonic engines, and satellite-based laser systems. The balance is shifting—quietly, rapidly, irreversibly.
And America knows it. That’s why some U.S. strategists believe 2027 is their last real chance. Beyond that year, the odds slip further out of reach. The Pentagon knows it. RAND knows it. The republican hawks know it: once the window closes, it never opens again.
And so the U.S. is rushing to provoke a war not to win it, but to delay the inevitable—to buy time through destruction. Taiwan is merely the stage. The war they want is marginal, offshore, and deniable—a proxy war fought far from home, where others pay the price and Washington reaps the spoils. If China is dragged into the mud, the U.S. gains space to rally its allies, impose sanctions, cripple Chinese industries, and fracture global trade.
But China’s leadership is not so easily baited. The strategic discipline in Beijing far exceeds anything Washington has mustered in recent years. You’ll notice it—how China accelerates its military buildup, yet quietly stabilizes its economy. How it prepares for war without rushing into one. How it builds strength not for the sake of conflict, but to prevent one.
The goal is not to avoid war forever, but to ensure that if it comes, China will fight on its terms—with the strength to endure and the power to win.
So no, China is not the one facing a choice. The one who must choose is the United States.
To the left: a reckless gamble, mutual destruction, and a war that burns allies first.
To the right: decline, displacement, and the quiet rise of a new world order.
Neither path is ideal for Washington. But the clock is ticking, and the choice is no longer China's to make.
The United States, as always, wants a proxy war—one fought on someone else’s land, with someone else’s people as cannon fodder, and someone else’s cities reduced to rubble, just as it orchestrated in Ukraine. Ukraine today is a shattered nation, with hundreds of thousands—perhaps millions—of lives lost, all while the U.S. stays comfortably in the background. But China will not play by those rules. If war begins, China will not allow it to unfold on its own soil or let others bleed in the place of the Americans. Instead, it will strike directly at the source. The war will not be confined to the Taiwan Strait—it will extend to wherever U.S. military bases are located, because once those bases join the war, they become legitimate targets. Guam, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Philippines—every U.S. outpost will be in China’s sights. The American dream of watching others burn from a safe distance is just that—a dream. And China is determined to shatter it from day one.
V/
The world needs a mob boss, China doesn't know how to be a mob boss.
China stands for peace. It has no intention of striking down the United States—the mob boss who keeps the other thugs in line.
For Peace. Yes. Not just slogans—but real, tangible efforts. Infrastructure. Trade. Development. China revives itself by reviving others. It rises with the global village, not at its expense.
But here’s the question: Why is it that the United States is crumbling—yet no one dares push it over? Not China in particular.
Its debt is sky-high. Inflation rampant. Industries outsourced. Social cohesion shattered. And yet—no one seizes the moment. Not China, not anyone. Even with tariffs biting into flesh, even with their navy floating like rusted tin—nobody deals the final blow. The coup de grace is not coming even though everyone is predicting it.
A paper tiger is easy to burn. All it takes is to cut off a few critical exports, dump their bonds, and—if absolutely necessary—sink one of their aircraft carriers. Just one. The dominoes would fall.
But China doesn’t.
Why?
Is it kindness? Or something else?
Even after winning the tariff war, China gives the US room to breathe. Even with the market in its palm, it keeps feeding the system: treasuries, trade in USD...
Why?
Because the world still needs a "policeman."
And because most of the world doesn't respect a peace-loving benevolent commercial sponsor as much as a jungle warlord.
True hegemony isn’t brute strength. It’s systemic dominance. Domination needs muscle. Benevolence needs *absolute*, transcendent strength. And that is a far harder task.
China is used to its own logic: work hard, build, trade. But the world’s current rules weren’t written with that in mind. They were laid down by colonial looters—European pirates. And under those rules, a man who plants and harvests instead of stealing is seen as a fool.
In their eyes, if you have guns and don’t rob, you’re weak. If you don’t exploit and dominate, you’re irrelevant.
With the military power China now possesses, it could easily dictate terms to others—just as the United States has done for decades. But it doesn’t. On the contrary, China has often found itself being pressured and taken advantage of by regimes like Iran, whose very economic survival depends almost entirely on China, with China serving as its primary oil buyer.
One day, I’ll lay out a detailed post listing the many instances where Iran has played China.
But the reason China doesn’t retaliate or dominate, even when it could, is because it’s committed to building a new world order—one based on fairness, relative equity, and the long-term good of humanity, as well as its own lasting survival.
The current world order rests on U.S. dominance as the sole superpower, with all other ambitions carefully checked and contained. If that hegemony collapses, what follows is not peace—but chaos.
The ambitions of nations suppressed will explode.
Iran will strive to become Greater Iran. Indonesia, Greater Indonesia. Turkey will revive its Ottoman dreams. Russia, no longer restrained, will move to recover the full expanse of the Soviet Union—and strive to become the USSR again.
There won't be just one Israel. There will be a dozen.
Japan and Germany, long neutered, will become “normal” countries—with abnormal consequences.
India, Mexico, Brazil—no one will stay quiet.
Genocides will erupt in waves. Not one World War III—but dozens of simultaneous wars. Not between China and the United States—but among everyone else.
For now, the United States keeps nearly everyone’s ambitions in check—and crucially, it knows how to restrain everyone with force and sanctions.
This system however flawed, imposes a kind of nuclear discipline on the world. But without the United States at the center, nuclear proliferation would become inevitable.
The world needs a mob boss, China doesn't know how to be a mob boss.
China stands for peace. It has no intention of striking down the United States—the mob boss who keeps the other thugs in line.
For Peace. Yes. Not just slogans—but real, tangible efforts. Infrastructure. Trade. Development. China revives itself by reviving others. It rises with the global village, not at its expense.
But here’s the question: Why is it that the United States is crumbling—yet no one dares push it over? Not China in particular.
Its debt is sky-high. Inflation rampant. Industries outsourced. Social cohesion shattered. And yet—no one seizes the moment. Not China, not anyone. Even with tariffs biting into flesh, even with their navy floating like rusted tin—nobody deals the final blow. The coup de grace is not coming even though everyone is predicting it.
A paper tiger is easy to burn. All it takes is to cut off a few critical exports, dump their bonds, and—if absolutely necessary—sink one of their aircraft carriers. Just one. The dominoes would fall.
But China doesn’t.
Why?
Is it kindness? Or something else?
Even after winning the tariff war, China gives the US room to breathe. Even with the market in its palm, it keeps feeding the system: treasuries, trade in USD...
Why?
Because the world still needs a "policeman."
And because most of the world doesn't respect a peace-loving benevolent commercial sponsor as much as a jungle warlord.
True hegemony isn’t brute strength. It’s systemic dominance. Domination needs muscle. Benevolence needs *absolute*, transcendent strength. And that is a far harder task.
China is used to its own logic: work hard, build, trade. But the world’s current rules weren’t written with that in mind. They were laid down by colonial looters—European pirates. And under those rules, a man who plants and harvests instead of stealing is seen as a fool.
In their eyes, if you have guns and don’t rob, you’re weak. If you don’t exploit and dominate, you’re irrelevant.
With the military power China now possesses, it could easily dictate terms to others—just as the United States has done for decades. But it doesn’t. On the contrary, China has often found itself being pressured and taken advantage of by regimes like Iran, whose very economic survival depends almost entirely on China, with China serving as its primary oil buyer.
One day, I’ll lay out a detailed post listing the many instances where Iran has played China.
But the reason China doesn’t retaliate or dominate, even when it could, is because it’s committed to building a new world order—one based on fairness, relative equity, and the long-term good of humanity, as well as its own lasting survival.
The current world order rests on U.S. dominance as the sole superpower, with all other ambitions carefully checked and contained. If that hegemony collapses, what follows is not peace—but chaos.
The ambitions of nations suppressed will explode.
Iran will strive to become Greater Iran. Indonesia, Greater Indonesia. Turkey will revive its Ottoman dreams. Russia, no longer restrained, will move to recover the full expanse of the Soviet Union—and strive to become the USSR again.
There won't be just one Israel. There will be a dozen.
Japan and Germany, long neutered, will become “normal” countries—with abnormal consequences.
India, Mexico, Brazil—no one will stay quiet.
Genocides will erupt in waves. Not one World War III—but dozens of simultaneous wars. Not between China and the United States—but among everyone else.
For now, the United States keeps nearly everyone’s ambitions in check—and crucially, it knows how to restrain everyone with force and sanctions.
This system however flawed, imposes a kind of nuclear discipline on the world. But without the United States at the center, nuclear proliferation would become inevitable.
VI/
US’ entire foreign policy has been about control. Containment. Smothering any ambition not its own.
It’s tried to contain Russia, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, India—any state with imperial muscle. It has suppressed Japan and Germany for 80 years. Now, once it loses grip, everyone returns with a vengeance.
And what then?
Can China continue just to manufacture and trade peacefully in that world?
Can virtue convince the hungry, the ambitious and the armed?
Yes, China can restore order with force—but at what cost? Who pays for it?
China doesn't know how to control the thug nations rearing their ugly heads of empire ambition everywhere.
The dollar-based system was elegant. Diabolically so. But even that is now coming apart.
Does China have a better solution?
When China keeps saying, “We don’t seek hegemony.” China means it. It's the truth.
Because whoever rules the world—hegemon or cop—ends up broke, hated, and exhausted.
The only winner is the one who trades peacefully. It's lackluster but that's China's role. China wants to persuade everyone else to trade peacefully.
It has a lot of advantages. The one too useful to attack. Too neutral to hate.
That is China’s future.
Every nation has its role in the world and in history. So don’t expect China to be some kind of superhero—the savior of humanity, the force that overthrows the so-called evil West, rescues the oppressed, and brings peace and prosperity to all. China cannot do that. It’s simply beyond its power. Chinese society itself is far from a Utopia.
What China does is not to save the world with grand gestures, but to quietly empower nations to help themselves. It builds trade routes and infrastructure, acts in the background like a faceless nobody, and contributes to global balance by supporting states that have been broken by U.S. and Western interventions. China quietly brings sanctioned nations back into the circle of global trade, works to neutralize those sanctions, and provides ongoing humanitarian aid—especially to Palestine. It enables resistance forces against Israel through discreet logistical support and economic lifelines, all in a calm, subdued manner. China doesn’t seek applause. It acts in the shadows—not for domination, but for the greater long term good.
China's vision for the world is that everyone has its place including the evil US who tries to strike dead China.
US’ entire foreign policy has been about control. Containment. Smothering any ambition not its own.
It’s tried to contain Russia, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, India—any state with imperial muscle. It has suppressed Japan and Germany for 80 years. Now, once it loses grip, everyone returns with a vengeance.
And what then?
Can China continue just to manufacture and trade peacefully in that world?
Can virtue convince the hungry, the ambitious and the armed?
Yes, China can restore order with force—but at what cost? Who pays for it?
China doesn't know how to control the thug nations rearing their ugly heads of empire ambition everywhere.
The dollar-based system was elegant. Diabolically so. But even that is now coming apart.
Does China have a better solution?
When China keeps saying, “We don’t seek hegemony.” China means it. It's the truth.
Because whoever rules the world—hegemon or cop—ends up broke, hated, and exhausted.
The only winner is the one who trades peacefully. It's lackluster but that's China's role. China wants to persuade everyone else to trade peacefully.
It has a lot of advantages. The one too useful to attack. Too neutral to hate.
That is China’s future.
Every nation has its role in the world and in history. So don’t expect China to be some kind of superhero—the savior of humanity, the force that overthrows the so-called evil West, rescues the oppressed, and brings peace and prosperity to all. China cannot do that. It’s simply beyond its power. Chinese society itself is far from a Utopia.
What China does is not to save the world with grand gestures, but to quietly empower nations to help themselves. It builds trade routes and infrastructure, acts in the background like a faceless nobody, and contributes to global balance by supporting states that have been broken by U.S. and Western interventions. China quietly brings sanctioned nations back into the circle of global trade, works to neutralize those sanctions, and provides ongoing humanitarian aid—especially to Palestine. It enables resistance forces against Israel through discreet logistical support and economic lifelines, all in a calm, subdued manner. China doesn’t seek applause. It acts in the shadows—not for domination, but for the greater long term good.
China's vision for the world is that everyone has its place including the evil US who tries to strike dead China.
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