Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Jul 15 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Inspired by this great pod ⤵️ , in which another nationally prominent progressive says, "of course I agree w/ state & local YIMBYs on 99% of their agenda," here's a seven-item test. 🧵.

1/10
For each policy choice, state whether (A) or (B) is closer to your own views, even if neither one is exactly right.

/2
#1. A state law upzoning major streets, commercial areas & sites near transit for multifamily housing should...

A) require 15% of new units to be deed-restricted lower income housing

B) impose a BMR mandate only if its cost is offset w/equivalent tax breaks for developer

/3
#2. The state law in Q1 should...

A) exclude any site w/ an existing rent-controlled unit or where a lower-income tenant resided in previous 5 years

B) allow redevelopment of rental properties if 2/3 of the tenants agree to a written, publicly recorded buyout

/4
#3. States should exempt large housing projects on infill sites from "mini-NEPA" enviro reviews...

A) so long as developer complies w/generally applicable wage & labor laws

B) only if developer agrees to pay union-negotiated "prevailing wages" to each construction craft

/5
#4. States should...

A) allow local governments to subject new buildings to rent control from date of certificate of occupancy

B) exempt new buildings from rent control for first 15 years

/6
#5. States should...

A) allow local rent control that caps annually allowable rent increases below the CPI

B) preempt local rent control if max increase < CPI

/7
#6. States should...

A) allow cities to charge progressive real estate transfer taxes based on value of the parcel (e.g, 1% for properties < $1M, 2% for $1-5m, 3% for $5+m)

B) key transfer tax rate to value of units (so $10m apt bldg w/ 10 units is taxed at $1m rate)

/8
#7. State laws that upzone infill housing sites or require ministerial review of housing proposals should...

A) exempt lower-income and majority-minority census
tracts

B) not exempt such tracts

/9
Hoping for replies from @jeffhauser @ZephyrTeachout @BharatRamamurti @sandeepvaheesan @brian_callaci @GaneshSitaraman @BigMeanInternet @HannahStoryB @glastris @WeisbergNate and others.

This 🧵 is not a gibe. Qualified answers are welcome. Hoping to clarify the debate.

/end
@jeffhauser @ZephyrTeachout @BharatRamamurti @sandeepvaheesan @brian_callaci @GaneshSitaraman @BigMeanInternet @HannahStoryB @glastris @WeisbergNate Speaking for myself only:

#1. B
#2. B
#3. A
#4. B
#5. B
#6. B
#7. B
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More from @CSElmendorf

Jul 3
CA deserves its moment in the sun, but journalists should be paying more attention to the amazing Abundance policies -- and better Democratic politics -- of our neighbors to the north.

Washington State is killing it. Oregon's doing pretty well too.

🧵/20.
Three examples:

1⃣ Wash. State rid itself of project-level enviro reviews of urban housing on a 97-3 vote, via normal leg process.

In CA, it required a daring gambit by @GavinNewsom, tying enviro review reform to budget.

/2


2⃣ In 2002, CA repealed parking minimums near "major transit stops." But the bill gives local govts wiggle room to re-impose parking mandates unless the project meets certain targets for deed-restricted-affordable housing.

/3 Image
Read 22 tweets
Jul 3
"Can you put a rough number on how much California's CEQA reforms will increase housing production?"

I've gotten this Q from lots of journalists over the last 48 hours (who sound frustrated w/ my answer), so here's a 🧵 laying out my thinking about it.

1/25
tl, dr: @GavinNewsom was right to call AB 130/SB 131 "the most consequential housing reform in modern history in the state of California" -- but even so, there's no defensible way to give a quantitative "this much more housing" answer to the reporters' question.

/2
In part, the CEQA-reform package is consequential b/c of what it signifies: that California is overcoming the seemingly intractable politics of a high-cost, low-supply equilibrium.

/3
Read 26 tweets
Jun 28
An update on California's CEQA / housing package as we hurtle toward the finish line.

tldr: @BuffyWicks's CEQA infill exemption is now *even better* than the 6/24 draft ⤵️; and it looks like @Scott_Wiener will land most of the fish in SB 607 but not the real lunker.

🧵/25
The million dollar (million unit?) question about Wicks's infill exemption has always been, "Will labor unions extract wage concessions that render the bill ineffective?"

/2
The 6/24 bill draft featured a novel, two-tier minimum wage for construction workers, plus "prevailing wage" requirements for tall projects (>85'), 100% affordable projects, and certain projects / crafts in San Francisco.

/3


Read 26 tweets
Jun 26
For years, California environmentalists have been MIA or worse on an absolute no-brainer of green policy: building dense housing near transit.

Are changes afoot? ⤵️

Maybe! But @NRDC's SB 79 support letter also shows persistence of addled Groups-blob thinking.

🧵/14.
First, some context:

- How I came to be an environmentalist without a home in the environmental movement,


/2
- How CA enviros were duped or white-guilted into letting greenfield developers get their dream policy enacted, even as the same orgs continued to fight infill housing,

/3motherjones.com/environment/20…
Read 15 tweets
Jun 25
Further thoughts on the construction-wage provisions of AB 140, the @BuffyWicks & @GavinNewsom budget trailer bill.

🧵/17.
As a matter of principle, I *do not* support industry-specific, let alone task-specific, wage requirements.

I've tweeted that so-called "prevailing wage" rules are the Democratic Party's version of crony capitalism.

/2 Image
I think it's profoundly embarrassing that "intellectuals" with Democratic Party career ambitions won't publicly acknowledge this point.

/3
Read 17 tweets
Jun 25
Joe C. points out that CA housing trailer bill also modifies the Permit Streamlining Act (PSA) in important ways.

I see the PSA provisions as a work in progress, whose ultimate payoff (if any) will depend on future legislative & judicial tinkering. 🧵/15

x.com/CohenSite/stat… x.com/CSElmendorf/st…Image
Image
The big idea of the PSA is that if a city doesn't approve or deny a project w/in defined period of time, the project becomes "automatically approved" by operation of law.

However, opponents can attack it in court if project didn't comply w/ applicable rules.

/2
That is, a project which has been "deemed approved" by operation of PSA is not "deemed to comply" with applicable zoning & development standards. (Though certain provisions of the HAA may render project "deemed compliant" too.)

/3
Read 16 tweets

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