Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 16 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The Third World War has already begun and Ukraine is at its center.

Not a sudden eruption, but a war built over decades of Western disarmament and strategic illusions.

Azov commander Denys Prokopenko explains in Ukrainska Pravda why Ukraine is the blueprint for victory.

1/ Image
After 1991, the West replaced armies with integration.

Security became a bonus, not a pillar.

Democracy, not deterrence, was the plan.

Result: most of Europe has peacetime militaries, hollow logistics, and no doctrine for large-scale war.

2/
Ukraine was part of that illusion.

It gave up nukes, dismantled Soviet infrastructure, shrank its armed forces — all to fit NATO’s script.

The reward? No real security guarantees.

That script failed in 2008 (Georgia), 2014 (Crimea), and again in 2022.

3/
Now, the authoritarian bloc (Russia, Iran, DPRK, China) is betting on force.

And the West, after decades of demobilization, is unprepared.

Russia escalates. China eyes Taiwan.

And Washington signals retreat.

4/
Ukraine can no longer rely on collective defense.

It must become a donor of security — not just a recipient.

That means exporting combat-tested systems, tactics, and command models forged in existential war.

5/
“Azov” is that model.

A networked unit inside a regular army — flexible, autonomous, and fast.

No rigid hierarchies. No NATO-style corps.

It adapts under fire, builds discipline from action, not orders.

6/
Azov didn’t survive chaos — it built a new architecture of war.

This is about practice of war. Taiwan is studying it.

Eastern Europe is reforming around it.

It’s a prototype of the armies the future demands.

7/
Victory won’t go to the side with the most missiles.

It will go to the side that can adapt, mobilize, and decentralize faster than the enemy can strike.

Those with institutions that survive entropy and fight back.

8X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 18
Zelenskyy: We maintain full control over state institutions and secured Ukraine's candidacy for the EU. I thank the government of Denys Shmyhal.

New government will transform defense sector and increase Ukraine's economic potential.

Yulia Svyrydenko, welcome to the office! 1/
Zelenskyy: Today is the 1,240th day of full-scale war. Ukraine has been fighting Russia for its independence longer than anyone in the world expected. 2/
Zelenskyy: We maintain full control over state institutions.

We provide the front. Increase our own weapons production, conduct our own defensive operations on Russian territory, inflicting significant damage on Russia. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 17
Putin is destroying his own system to avoid showing weakness.

Putin’s 25-year rule balanced foreign strength with domestic comfort. Russian invasion broke that.

He’s ready to turn Russia into a militarized dictatorship — Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Russia’s economy is stagnating with high inflation and looming recession as war spending rises.

Globally, it’s losing ground — Armenia pivoted away, Assad fell in Syria, Iran drifts, and China limits tech transfers despite their “partnership.” Strategic setbacks mount. 2/
The US pledged advanced NATO arms to Ukraine and blamed Putin for dragging out the war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's deep-strike attacks on Russian airbases in May show growing innovation, hinting at bold surprises ahead as the conflict enters a new phase. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 17
Zelenskyy: Today is the 1,240th day of full-scale war. Ukraine has been fighting Russia for its independence longer than anyone in the world expected. 1/
Zelenskyy: We maintain full control over state institutions.

We provide the front. Increase our own weapons production, conduct our own defensive operations on Russian territory, inflicting significant damage on Russia. 2/
Zelenskyy: We went through 3 winters of full-scale war and defended Ukraine from Russia's desire to destroy our energy system.

We maintain all the logistics necessary for Ukraine. We built and maintain a global coalition in support of Ukraine. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 17
Melania Trump’s sharp answer “Really? Another city was just hit” helped shift Trump’s stance on Putin.

Behind the scenes, GOP hawks like Kellogg and Rubio had worked for months to steer Trump tougher.

Melania’s timing sealed the pivot, says The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Rubio, once calling Putin "a gangster" and "war criminal," has become one of Trump's most influential advisers.

Rubio’s close relationship with Trump allowed him to intervene when Putin stepped up his attacks, unleashing up to 1,000 missile and drone strikes a day. 2/
Kellogg was sidelined from February Moscow talks in favor of Witkoff, who met Putin 4 times. But Kellogg is now "in the ascendancy" and, with Marco Rubio, is driving Trump’s tougher new stance on Russia. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 17
Europe unites amid U.S. protectionism and post-Brexit rifts.

NYT: Germany and the UK will sign a sweeping deal on July 18 covering defense, migration, energy, and trade — treating a threat to one as a threat to both (including China and Russia).

1/ Image
The defense pact builds on a 2024 agreement: joint military drills and weapons co-development.

Now it goes further.

Britain and France just agreed to coordinate nuclear arsenals.

Germany has no nukes, but it is now the #3 military supplier to Ukraine.

2/
Merz has pledged 3.5% of Germany’s GDP to defense by 2029 — the biggest military rearmament since the Cold War.

This comes as Russia escalates in Ukraine and Trump pressures NATO to spend more.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 16
Ukraine’s new Cabinet will be voted on tomorrow, according to Davyd Arakhamia (head of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People faction):

Yulia Svyrydenko – Prime Minister

1/ Image
Mykhailo Fedorov – First Deputy PM and Minister of Digital Transformation

Oleksii Kuleba – Deputy PM and Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development

Taras Kachka – Deputy PM for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration

2/
Denys Shmyhal – Minister of Defense

Matvii Bidnyi – Minister of Youth and Sports

Herman Halushchenko – Minister of Justice

Svitlana Hrynchuk – Minister of Energy

3/
Read 5 tweets

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