Thread by @Charles_Lister

#Syria's SW province of #Suwayda has seen 5 days of chaotic, complex conflict now -- but as with previous bouts of hostilities in recent months, the information space has been plagued by disinformation, conflicting information & fast-changing developments.

What's happened, a 🧵:

Late on July 11, Bedouin gunmen ambushed a vegetable truck on the #Damascus-#Suwayda highway, beating the driver & stealing the truck & its contents.

The next day, #Druze gunmen kidnapped 8 Bedouins as retaliation, triggering Bedouin gunmen to kidnap 5 #Druze in response.

July 12 saw a flurry of tit-for-tat kidnappings, amid attempts by local notables to negotiate a calm-down.

Tensions & conflict between Bedouin clans & #Druze militia in #Suwayda dates back years -- tied to the drugs & weapons trade, control of smuggling routes & land ownership.

On July 13, negotiations broke down & armed conflict erupted in #Suwayda between Bedouin clans & #Druze militias -- in western rural #Suwayda & in the provincial capital itself.

#Druze villages were being shelled & #Bedouin areas besieged -- ~30 killed & ~100 injured in 24hrs.

On July 14, after attempting to mediate talks, #Syria's transitional gov't intervened, deploying military & interior ministry forces into #Suwayda to "enforce order" and put an end to internal fighting

Until this point, the gov't had no forces in #Suwadya, per prior agreements.

As #Syria gov't forces entered #Suwayda, they were ambushed by #Druze militiamen -- 10 soldiers were rounded up, executed & used for celebratory photos and 8 other soldiers were taken hostage, stripped & marched to a nearby village in their underwear.

They're believed dead now.

Intense fighting then ensued, as gov't forces sought to advance into #Suwayda. #Druze militia shelled the Bedouin district of al-Maqous, killing a child (a photo of which became subject to anti-Sunni mockery online) & shelled into eastern #Daraa, targeting Sunni Arab villages.

As fighting raged on July 14, #Israel began drone strikes in #Suwayda -- 1st targeting #Syria military armored vehicles, then pick-up trucks of interior ministry forces.

While while negotiations continued, fighting persisted into July 15, as #Israel airstrikes expanded.

~Midday on July 15, a ceasefire was announced by #Suwayda's #Druze, #Christian & civil council leaders, who invited gov't forces in to secure order -- see here.

~30mins later, one #Druze cleric, Hikmat al-Hijri rejected the ceasefire & ordered fighting. #Israel strikes resumed.

Following Hikmat al-Hijri's abrogation of the ceasefire, #Israel's strikes expanded into #Suwayda city, where #Syria gov't forces were ambushed in 9 separate locations, near-simultaneously.

By end of July 15, there were 118 confirmed casualties (since July 12):

The breakdown of the July 15 ceasefire saw violence surge in #Suwayda -- with multiple reports of extrajudicial killings & other violations by gov't forces.

US mediation with #Israel & #Damascus also began & despite a request to cease strikes, #Israel continued unchanged.

While other #Druze gunmen have been involved, the core resistance to gov't authority is Hikmat al-Hijri's "#Suwayda Military Council", which was established 24hrs after #Assad's fall & whose leadership contains 3 former #Assad regime generals.

The SMC is #Israel's partner force.

The #Suwayda Military Council is also assessed -- by regional intelligence -- to retain core control of #Syria's #Assad-era drugs trade (in #captagon, heroin, crystal meth & hashish).

As it happens, #Jordan's military fought x2 drug smuggling raids from #Suwayda late on July 15.

I met Hikmat al-Hijri in February & he made his hostility to #Syria's transition clear, calling them "takfiri terrorists" & implying an openness to "external protection" (i.e. #Israel).

I asked some aligned fighters about #captagon trade & they disregarded the Q altogether.

Fighting continued into today (July 16), with intensifying #Israel strikes but #Syria gov't forces continuing to advance -- holding #Suwayda city & taking #Qanawat, home to Hijri's HQ compound.

At this point, #Israel hit #Syria's Defense Ministry in #Damascus, twice, killing 3.

After hitting central #Damascus (including outside the Presidential Palace), #Israel also launched strikes on multiple #Syria military bases, while continuing intensive strikes in #Suwayda.

Then came ceasefire No. 2, announced by #Druze leaders & #Damascus. A summary, here:

However, for a 2nd time in 24hrs, Hikmat al-Hijri announced his rejection of the ceasefire deal agreed by all other #Suwayda #Druze leaders & called on his fighters to continue fighting.

*Minutes later,* #Israel strikes resumed -- hitting gov't forces all across #Suwayda.

Hijri's rejection of the ceasefire triggered an outcry among other #Druze leaders, with Sheikh Yousef al-Jarbou accusing Hijri of illegitimately seeking to monopolize #Druze leadership.

Another, Laith al-Balous, accused "subversive elements" (Hijri) of endangering #Suwayda.

As of now, US mediation appears to have achieved the 3rd ceasefire deal in 36hrs -- seemingly framed by the same parameters as the first 2 rejected by Hikmat al-Hijri.

At the core: #Syria gov't military forces withdraw & interior ministry/local internal security take control.

The unsaid implication of this US-mediated deal is that #Suwayda will integrate into #Syria's transitional state -- with the interior ministry in partial command of local internal #Druze security forces.

This would imply a significant loss of influence for Hikmat al-Hijri.

All of this -- including 100s of casualties & a surge in sectarian hatred -- should have been unnecessary.

A comprehensive deal was agreed 48hrs ago, but Hikmat al-Hijri's rejection & #Israel's intervention poured gallons of fuel onto a tinderbox.

Finally, a warning on disinformation.

In the past 3hrs alone, there's been reports of (1) a massacre in a hospital; (2) claims of "thousands" executed, including by carving out hearts; & (3) the burning alive of dozens of women/children.

All seemingly fictitious. Be careful.

According to data from #Syria's 2 most long-standing monitors, 6-8% of confirmed casualties in #Suwayda since July 12 have been women & children & combatants constitute 76-84%.