Few #retailsale takeaways:
1) Headline +0.6% vs. +0.1% exp beat looks ~1/2 gas prices and 1/2 autos
2) "Control group" which flows into GDP +0.5% vs. +0.3% exp, but street whisper number was much higher going in (range +0.7-0.9%) so arguably a miss
1/
1) Headline +0.6% vs. +0.1% exp beat looks ~1/2 gas prices and 1/2 autos
2) "Control group" which flows into GDP +0.5% vs. +0.3% exp, but street whisper number was much higher going in (range +0.7-0.9%) so arguably a miss
1/
3) Retail sales are reported nominal, so if prices go up on retail goods b/c of, say, tariffs, sales will appear to be rising
4) Furniture & electronics sales were down, building materials and clothing biggest upsides for the month
2/
4) Furniture & electronics sales were down, building materials and clothing biggest upsides for the month
2/
5) There's gnarly residual seasonality in June and July data related to post-pandemic reopening in 2020 which tends to skew data in those months to the upside
Overall, I don't read a lot into the release, but no obv. consumer weakness here.
Overall, I don't read a lot into the release, but no obv. consumer weakness here.
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