Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 17 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Europe unites amid U.S. protectionism and post-Brexit rifts.

NYT: Germany and the UK will sign a sweeping deal on July 18 covering defense, migration, energy, and trade — treating a threat to one as a threat to both (including China and Russia).

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The defense pact builds on a 2024 agreement: joint military drills and weapons co-development.

Now it goes further.

Britain and France just agreed to coordinate nuclear arsenals.

Germany has no nukes, but it is now the #3 military supplier to Ukraine.

2/
Merz has pledged 3.5% of Germany’s GDP to defense by 2029 — the biggest military rearmament since the Cold War.

This comes as Russia escalates in Ukraine and Trump pressures NATO to spend more.

3/
The UK-Germany deal, nicknamed a “friendship contract”, also targets post-Brexit friction:

- easier UK-Germany travel for schoolchildren and tourists
- new anti-trafficking efforts
- closer scientific and rail links

4/
Macron just signed a UK deal to send 50 Channel-crossers back weekly in exchange for 50 vetted asylum seekers.

Now Merz and Starmer follow up with joint migration enforcement in the new pact.

5/
Unlike Macron, Merz gets no royal carriage or state banquet.

But the symbolism is clear: Starmer and Merz are building a strategic European core.

Both are new leaders in polarized systems. Both back Ukraine. Both want Europe to act, not wait for Washington.

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 17
Putin is destroying his own system to avoid showing weakness.

Putin’s 25-year rule balanced foreign strength with domestic comfort. Russian invasion broke that.

He’s ready to turn Russia into a militarized dictatorship — Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Russia’s economy is stagnating with high inflation and looming recession as war spending rises.

Globally, it’s losing ground — Armenia pivoted away, Assad fell in Syria, Iran drifts, and China limits tech transfers despite their “partnership.” Strategic setbacks mount. 2/
The US pledged advanced NATO arms to Ukraine and blamed Putin for dragging out the war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's deep-strike attacks on Russian airbases in May show growing innovation, hinting at bold surprises ahead as the conflict enters a new phase. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 16
Ukraine’s new Cabinet will be voted on tomorrow, according to Davyd Arakhamia (head of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People faction):

Yulia Svyrydenko – Prime Minister

1/ Image
Mykhailo Fedorov – First Deputy PM and Minister of Digital Transformation

Oleksii Kuleba – Deputy PM and Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development

Taras Kachka – Deputy PM for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration

2/
Denys Shmyhal – Minister of Defense

Matvii Bidnyi – Minister of Youth and Sports

Herman Halushchenko – Minister of Justice

Svitlana Hrynchuk – Minister of Energy

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 16
Rutte: We’re now massively arming Ukraine with U.S. weapons funded by Europe: missiles, ammo, air defense.

If Russia avoids peace talks, in 50 days, secondary sanctions will hit India, China, and Brazil hard. Leaders in Beijing, Delhi, and Brasília should take note. 1/
Sen. Tillis: If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, what’s next? Moldova? The Balkans? Peace in the region is at risk.

This isn’t a political or partisan war. It’s a brutal war of choice by Putin and he must fail. 2/
Rutte: Together with Ukraine, through our command in Wiesbaden, we’re building tailored aid packages.

The U.S. keeps enough for its own defense, but ensures Ukraine gets what it needs. It’s also a clear signal to Putin: get serious about peace talks. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 16
WSJ: Trump decided to give Ukraine not 2, but 5 Patriot systems — after seeing Russia bomb a maternity hospital in Kharkiv and a residential block in Kherson (killing a 1-year-old). He immediately called Merz on July 11 and made the offer.

1/ Image
The sale wasn’t planned. Just a week earlier, Merz asked for 2 systems and Trump said no. But July 11 changed that. Trump: I’m ready. He picked up the phone himself. Merz immediately agreed.

2/
Merz got Trump’s attention by offering money. On July 3, hours after Trump’s last call with Putin, Merz called him and said: if you’ve frozen aid to Ukraine, sell Patriots to Germany.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 16
The Third World War has already begun and Ukraine is at its center.

Not a sudden eruption, but a war built over decades of Western disarmament and strategic illusions.

Azov commander Denys Prokopenko explains in Ukrainska Pravda why Ukraine is the blueprint for victory.

1/ Image
After 1991, the West replaced armies with integration.

Security became a bonus, not a pillar.

Democracy, not deterrence, was the plan.

Result: most of Europe has peacetime militaries, hollow logistics, and no doctrine for large-scale war.

2/
Ukraine was part of that illusion.

It gave up nukes, dismantled Soviet infrastructure, shrank its armed forces — all to fit NATO’s script.

The reward? No real security guarantees.

That script failed in 2008 (Georgia), 2014 (Crimea), and again in 2022.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 16
Chmut: 2025 is the hardest year of the war in Ukraine. Russia attacks.

Ukraine loses ground. Institutions stall.

Mobilization fails. Command structure breaks down.

Head of Ukraine’s top-funded defense charity “Come Back Alive,” Taras Chmut spoke to UkrPravda.

1/
Chmut: The length of the front in Ukraine-Russia war reaches 1,400 km. Russia pushes along 20% of the front.

Sumy and Kharkiv now serve as buffer zones for terror, troop diversion, and territorial bargaining.

2/
Chmut: Russia tries to take all of Donetsk — advancing through Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

If it enters Dnipropetrovsk, even 1 km² under Russian administration could shift the war politically. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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