We just lived through most consequential 24 hours in financial services law for the past two decades.
And it will bring the biggest transformation of financial technology since the 1970s.
Here's what happened and why it matters 👇
What Happened? 🤔
1. The GENIUS Act passed with a 308-122 bi-partisan vote in the House and is heading to the Presidents desk.
2. The CLARITY Act, clarifying SEC vs CFTC oversight passed House 294-133
3. Anti-CBDC Bill, prohibiting a retail CBDC also passed the house.
The last major bill was Dodd-Frank in 2010 which among other things:
1. Created capital requirements on banks - arguably making them less profitable
2. Carved out smaller banks (Sub $10bn in assets) to have less stringent oversight and make more from even swipe fee.
Stablecoins have gone from risky to mainstream
The GENIUS Act,
--> Creates an entirely new category of financial institution
--> Makes US Dollar backed stablecoins a regulated, on shore asset
--> This will unleash adoption by banks and major Fortune 500s
The CLARITY Act,
--> Separates what is and is not a security
--> Stemming from a grey area where "token launches" would be sued by the SEC without that clarity
-->This led to failures in the court system and a lack of consumer protection
This paves the way for tokenized securities
The CEO of Robinhood @vladtenev said the quiet part out loud to @HarryStebbings
- This is the biggest shift in finance since digitization in the 1970s.
- We're changing how assets are stored and how they move
- With cash and stablecoins
- With equities and tokenization
When we "wrap" assets in this new technology they get superpowers
While everyone is debating Stablecoins. Pay by Bank is quietly becoming a FORCE in payments.
TrueLayer just launched Pay by Bank with Stripe in Germany.
But here's the timeline that explains why this matters:
2019: "What's Pay by Bank?"
2021: "Interesting experiment in the UK"
2023: "We should probably test this"
2024: Every major PSP picks their dance partner
2025: The invasion begins
Stripe + TrueLayer aren't just expanding to Germany.
They're taking the fight directly to Adyen + Tink's strongest market.
The numbers that explain why this was inevitable:
→ TrueLayer processes €1.4B annually in Germany
→ Merchants see 42% conversion uplift with Pay by Bank
→ Card fees: 1.5-2.9% vs Pay by Bank: 0.1-0.3%
Why did Kalshi just raise $185m at a $2bn valuation more than DOUBLE Polymarket's recent reported $1bn?
- Polymarket dominated election coverage.
- Had 10X the volume.
- Every journalist quoted their odds.
- They owned the narrative.
- But they can't touch US users.
The biggest prediction market in history... banned from its biggest market.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and able to advertise to US customers.
But what about prediction markets generally? Isn't it just gambling?
When you can't afford a house, can't trust institutions, can't build wealth through traditional means... why not bet on elections?
This is financial nihilism pricing in.
The social contract broke.
Prediction markets filled the void.
Young Americans are gambling because the "legitimate" path to wealth feels rigged anyway. Same odds, different casino.
But institutions see something else entirely.
- Paradigm didn't invest in sports betting.
- They invested in the infrastructure for conditional finance.
- Prediction markets are just conditional settlement rails.
🚨 BREAKING: Revolut — the neobank with 50M customers — is quietly building its own stablecoin.
Does everyone need their own stablecoin? Can this threaten Circle and Tether's dominance?
Revolut has a distribution advantage:
- 50M active customers
- Full banking in 30+ countries (EU + UK + MX)
- Live crypto exchange already running (Revolut X)
- Crypto support in their core product
Is this a good business case?
If they got to $7.5B in stablecoin assets at current treasury yield that's ~$300M+ annual revenue
- Tether made $5.2B profit last year.
- Circle has to give away most of its profit for distribution
- Revolut *already has distribution*
Visa wants to give AI Agents "tokens" so they can pay without you ever seeing a checkout page.
Visa's CEO told investors this is their #1 priority.
Here's how it will work 👇
Imagine telling your Agent.
"I want a signed Pedro Pascal shirt from The Last of Us" don't spend more than $100" -
Then you tap your phone.
The next thing you know, the payment is complete.
Let's unpack the flow as I understood it 👀
1. Tap a card to a device to get a token for their AI Agent 2. The AI Agent registers with the network as a "trusted wallet" in the same way Apple Pay can register with networks and processors 3. The user gives the AI Agent a mandate (Find a Pedro Pascal shirt, don't spend more than $100) 4. The Auth instructions are finalized ($100 budget, Pedro shirt) 5. The Auth instructions define when step-up or biometric authentication is required (e.g. > $100, or some level of fraud risk detected) 6. The auth instructions are matched between the Agent, and the network at the Merchant (e.g. This agent has a mandate to buy for a max of $100 this SKU) 7. The payment is complete. BUT, Liability remains with the merchant for fraud (!!)