This:
"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."
Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.
Russian Railway🧵
1/
"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."
Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.
Russian Railway🧵
1/
Low friction roller bearings are a major technological strength of the West.
They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.
Rail roller bearings are different in their application
2/
They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.
Rail roller bearings are different in their application
2/
...but the computer control software for SKF & Amsted co-production machine tooling that Russia used is proprietary. That software left Russia in April/May 2022.
Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game
3/
Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game
3/
...like every other major globalist corporation and it bit them square in their assets.
The latest generation SKF bearing last 2 million KM.
The problem is the size of Russia. The Moscow to Vladivostok run is 9,289 KM one way.
4/
The latest generation SKF bearing last 2 million KM.
The problem is the size of Russia. The Moscow to Vladivostok run is 9,289 KM one way.
4/
That is 108 round trips, and that happens after about 63 months for the newest generation Russian electrical locomotives moving the China trade ISO container trains.
5/
5/
The Russians are 3 years into a 5-year countdown for new rail bearings with a practical transportation capital disinvestment time limit.
If they wait too long to admit defeat in Ukraine.
They will lose the ability to move coal to the power plants that maintain electrical power that runs the trains.
6/
If they wait too long to admit defeat in Ukraine.
They will lose the ability to move coal to the power plants that maintain electrical power that runs the trains.
6/
Rail makes up ~43% of all transportation in Russia, but it is a much higher percentage on the most vital east/west axis.
Russian river traffic is north-south. Arctic shipping is seasonal.
7/
Russian river traffic is north-south. Arctic shipping is seasonal.
7/
And roads are built in Russia to distribute goods from rail depots and sea/river ports.
How vital rails are for Russia from those numbers is self-evident
This process of Russian railway infrastructure disinvestment-based decay will continue long after the fighting stops.
8/
How vital rails are for Russia from those numbers is self-evident
This process of Russian railway infrastructure disinvestment-based decay will continue long after the fighting stops.
8/
No on in the west has paid SKF & Amsted to build up a reserve of railway bearing to arrest Russian railway system decay during the Russo-Ukrainian War for civil affairs operations afterwards.
9/
9/
Neither SKF nor Amsted will break contracts with current non-sanctioned customers unless the EU pays the contractual penalties. The EU cannot make a rapid decision...ever.
Consensus between Western & Eastern European states agreeing to help Russia won't be fast in any case.
10/
Consensus between Western & Eastern European states agreeing to help Russia won't be fast in any case.
10/
The Russians will triage the railways to support the most thickly populated areas of the Russian Federation.
If it goes that far, you can kiss Russian oil & gas energy supplies away for a decade.
East Russia will go Chinese or collapse to w/o power, food, & fuel.
11/11
If it goes that far, you can kiss Russian oil & gas energy supplies away for a decade.
East Russia will go Chinese or collapse to w/o power, food, & fuel.
11/11
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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