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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 22

The best open-source AI model just dropped a detailed report on how it was trained, a rare resource for students given no frontier lab is publishing!

Kimi K2's estimated total cost of training is ~$20-30M, roughly in line with pricing: $0.6/M in $2.5/M out tokens.

10 highlights:

1. Generating tokens by rewriting high-quality tokens with LLMs in pre-training
2. Mining 3000+ MCPs and using LLM-generated personas to improve agentic tool calling
3. 10,000 parallel Kubernetes sandboxes to solve Github issues
4. New scaling laws for sparsity in MoE models

5. RL with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for math, coding, safety with self-critique model with long-reasoning penalty, causing direct, desisive answers
6. Training recipe of 4k sequences, then 32k then 128k with YaRN
7. High temp during initial RL training to promote exploration

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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 18

The hardest high school math exam in the world, the 6 problem 9 hour IMO 2025, was this week.

AI models performed poorly.

Gemini 2.5 Pro scored the highest, just 13/42, costing $431.97, in a best of 32 eval. Bronze cutoff was 19.

Long way to go for AI to solve hard Math.

Math Eval: matharena.ai/imo/
Problems: sugaku.net/content/imo-20…

Here's a more beautiful visualization of model performance on MathArena

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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 16

Most important tech blog this year: OpenAI engineer and ex-founder of $3.5B Segment wrote a tell all post about how OpenAI works internally.

From obsession with X, devout use of Slack to engineering culture and tech stack.

A peek under the hood of a generational company.

Source: calv.info/openai-reflect…

"this company runs on twitter vibes"

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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 13

I'm using the best AI models to bet $1000 on Polymarket!

Asked it to use modern portfolio theory + bet sizing to make calculated bets. It chose everything from BTC price to Fed rates.

Expected returns:
o3-pro: +21.6%
opus 4: +41.7%
grok 4 heavy: +34%

Will report back who won.

Wanted to use Gemini 2.5 Pro too but on AI Studio, it did not search the web. I’ve kicked off a Deep Research and will report back under this thread.

Prompt:
“Check on the odds on Polymarket and tell me the most mispriced assets I should bet on from first principles reasoning. You have $1000.

Please do deep research and present precise odds on each bet. Use advanced math for trading. Draw research from authoritative sources like research and unbiased pundits. Size my bets properly and use everything you know about portfolio theory. Calculate your implied odds from first principles and make sure you get an exact number.

Your goal is to maximize expected value. Make minimum 5 bets. Write it in a table.”

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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 9

Holy shit it’s happening.

OpenAI wants to own ALL the distribution.

Source: reuters.com/business/media…

Google realized back in the day that information-seeking queries are not an organically repetitive behavior, like social.

Chrome was a way to get users to continue to use search on the omnibar without even having to navigate to google[dot]com. It was a genius move for them.

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Deedy

@deedydas

Jul 5

Why are 6' tall well-educated high earning men AND attractive women single?

Modern dating is in a crisis for everyone. It is one of the biggest problems of our time. Let’s break it down with data.

1. Women are more educated than ever, and prefer men the same or more.
Women are getting educated at higher rates than men (47% of women 25-34 have a bachelors vs 37% of men), yet strongly prefer partners of the same education level (81% of couples where one is college-educated have both college-educated). Few men meet this criteria.

2. Women make more money than ever, and prefer men who make more.
College-educated women in cities make MORE than men (women age 25-34 earn >100% of men in 22 large US metros including NYC and DC), yet data shows they are hypergamous, meaning they'd rather date men who make more than them (only 16% of heterosexual marriages have a female breadwinner). Data also shows that women save less than men of commensurate income, meaning the man's income becomes important to keep up their lifestyle if they ever want to purchase a house or settle down. Few men meet this criteria.

3. Women's standards are heightened by dating apps, which force filtering on criteria that are superficial and not long-term focused.
Women are in short supply in dating apps (74% on Tinder, 64% of Hinge is male), and confuse the hookup market for the marriage market. They apply selective filtering given the affordances of the apps (height, looks, education, age, race) and match with men who are "out of their league" and don't want to settle with them (median users message people 10-17%ile more attractive than themselves). When they do want to settle, this group of men self-select for being incompatible on another critical dimension like values, income or personality, leaving women unhappy with the result. Good men who fall short of the initial filter come across too strong and/or feel like a backup and find it hard to love a woman who he can sense is "settling" for him.

4. Social media has polarized both genders.
Both sides have false expectations around dating. For women, they're taught to never settle for less, be an independent girlboss, and that they don't need anyone short of perfection. Men are taught that the only women worth liking having perfect Instagram bodies, are told to date women with fewer sexual partners, that women want them for money, and the world today is just against them in every way. This makes many of them isolate and not enjoy women at all. They see less eye to eye moreso than ever on politics, opinions, and shared interests as a result. The gender “war” in Korea best exemplifies this.

5. Women take longer to find a long term match, but are seen as less attractive with age.
Because of 3, women often date around longer in their most appealing and fertile years. They see a rapid fall off in their own matches after 30 (data shows women desirability peaks at 18-22 while men climbs until 50), when it becomes a race to the bottom of the declining quality of suitors that are interested and their own declining standards: "I should've just been with that one guy from 5yrs ago." When they find a guy, they want to move quickly into marriage and kids which is often too aggressive for men. Although its supposedly taboo to say but men also prefer women with less former partners especially when choosing a spouse, which makes it more difficult for these women (data shows men willingness to commit drops sharply >8 sexual partners)

6. The world is global, and paths diverge more often than before.
Men and women both are increasingly ambitious and will move cities in search of better opportunities. Long distance relationships have lower survival rates, which consume a lot of prime dating years (40% of long distances fail, with an avg separation of 4.5mos).

7. Dating advice reinforces poor behavior.
All of this is exacerbated by people on both sides who are either in a relationship or single offering unhelpful advice like "just suck it up" or "try harder" which makes men and women cement their pre-existing habits. 20%+ of people <30 say their dating guidance primarily comes from TikTok / Instagram.

8. Ambitious women don't want kids more than men. The ones that do struggle to find partners that can afford it.
64% of women under 50 without children don't want kids vs 50% for men. Men often want kids in the former case or can't really afford them in the latter (median cost in metros is $25-32k/yr for a child and 36% of adults cite cost as the major reason for no kids). Either way, it's a bad situation.

Neither women nor men are at fault for this situation society has found itself in, and this post isn’t blaming anyone in particular. The cause is an intricate combination of the state of the economy, access through dating apps, social media and innate mating preferences. If we cannot talk

Sources:
bls.gov/charts/usual-w…
robinhood.org/news/the-true-…
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
pewresearch.org/social-trends/…
mix999fm.iheart.com/content/2024-0…
luvlink.com/blogs/news/sur…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27805420/
bigthink.com/culture-religi…
theblog.okcupid.com/a-womans-advan…
martinvidal.medium.com/dating-apps-ar…

Sources 2:
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…

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