Secondary Tariffs, New Sanctions or Both?
This is the debate in Washington right now after Trump's pivot against Russia
In this thread, I break down what economic measures will work and won't work against Russia /THREAD
This is the debate in Washington right now after Trump's pivot against Russia
In this thread, I break down what economic measures will work and won't work against Russia /THREAD
Trump's secondary tariffs against Russia are unlikely to be enforceable without escalating a trade war with China, torpedoing UAE investments and derailing a trade deal with India
Its not a viable approach even though if implemented to max, they would be devastating /1
Its not a viable approach even though if implemented to max, they would be devastating /1
Instead, the focus needs to be on closing key loopholes in the sanctions regime
While significant progress has been made against banks like Sberbank and Gazprombank, they are not the only front against Russia's SWIFT access
Nuclear energy giant Rosatom is a key actor /2
While significant progress has been made against banks like Sberbank and Gazprombank, they are not the only front against Russia's SWIFT access
Nuclear energy giant Rosatom is a key actor /2
Rosatom has occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, engaged in deals with Sahel juntas and aided Iran's civilian nuclear energy program
Yet it remains unsanctioned due to fears about disrupting uranium price and supply chains /3
Yet it remains unsanctioned due to fears about disrupting uranium price and supply chains /3
This has allowed it to operate defense and other front companies that feed Russia's war machine
Its mastery of "greenwashing" with solar and renewable energy offers is a deflection, and its small modular reactors are gaining traction /4
Its mastery of "greenwashing" with solar and renewable energy offers is a deflection, and its small modular reactors are gaining traction /4
There are also shadow fleet tankers that are left on the table
Estonian officials commonly estimate there are 600 shadow fleet tankers but the numbers change rapidly
The big problem is that EU sanctions packages are staggered and US ones are often reactive not preemptive /5
Estonian officials commonly estimate there are 600 shadow fleet tankers but the numbers change rapidly
The big problem is that EU sanctions packages are staggered and US ones are often reactive not preemptive /5
The oil refinery loophole is another one
Estimates of $750 million in immediate cash losses have circulated if this was closed and Russia's oil exports to Global South partners would be complicated further /6
Estimates of $750 million in immediate cash losses have circulated if this was closed and Russia's oil exports to Global South partners would be complicated further /6
Secondary sanctions have created some impediments between yuan and rouble transactions especially involving Chinese banks
These delays are problematic for Russia but yuan trade is more resilient than it looks, especially as Trump's BRICS tariffs alarm the Global South /7
These delays are problematic for Russia but yuan trade is more resilient than it looks, especially as Trump's BRICS tariffs alarm the Global South /7
Given the commitment of key actors to multipolarity in the Global South, it will be hard to corral these countries to isolate Russia
But there is a lot that the West can do immediately to restrict the scope of Putin's war financing /END
But there is a lot that the West can do immediately to restrict the scope of Putin's war financing /END
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