arctotherium Profile picture
Jul 20 21 tweets 13 min read Read on X
Thread with excerpts from "Fall of the Double Eagle: The Battle for Galicia and the Demise of Austria-Hungary." Image
The multiethnic nature of Austria-Hungary meant that it could not separate domestic and foreign policy; every foreign issue had a domestic lobby and vice-versa. Image
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The military was a complex, highly-bureaucratic, inefficient, and unwieldy behemoth, the natural result of a dozen ethnic groups and countless dialects. The army was bound together by dynastic loyalty, and Franz Joseph saw it more as a domestic than a foreign instrument. Image
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A-H had three different armies: an Austrian one, a Hungarian one (Honved), and a joint one (KuK). The first two were supposed to be symbolic, but gradually became major forces in their own right due to Hungarian intransigence. This posed obvious problems for unity of command. Image
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Even worse, military laws required assent from both halves of the monarchy, and the Hungarians used funding/training/conscription as a bargaining chip for other concessions, leaving it weak and unready. Chart unrelated (race provisions in the National Defense Acquisition Act). Image
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As such, when war came, Austro-Hungary had the weakest military of the great powers, despite a large population and economy. However, at least the military had spiffy uniforms (useful for the domestic repression role) and was extremely diverse. Image
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The linguistic diversity in particular led to amusing misunderstandings, and trying to figure out the right languages for each unit often offended left-out groups. Image
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Jews were highly overrepresented among reserve officers, especially in the Honved. There were six Jewish officers for every Jewish common soldier. Image
Austria's weakest arm was artillery. Image
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Very successful Russian espionage ring, with prominent General Staff officers, including Redl, the head of the Hapsburg espionage arm for 7 years. The traitors: a Serb with ethnic sympathies for Russia and a "notorious homosexual." If only there were signs. Image
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Homosexuality was apparently fairly common in the Hapsburg officer corps, and Redl turned to treachery to pay for his lifestyle, turning over KuK's secrets and destroying the entire Austrian espionage network in Russia. Unrelated: Project Veritas. Image
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Deployment plan chosen was awful. Initially deployed primarily vs Serbia, even though Russian support for Serbia was well-known, then had to pivot back when the Russians showed up, failing on both fronts. Image
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The head of the Serbian military, who would go on to beat the Hapsburg invasion, was on Hapsburg soil when the war started and interned, only to be allowed to leave by Franz Joseph. The Serbs mobilized faster and had a comparable force to the invasion. Image
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Galicia's fortresses were not well-maintained or modernized due to the faith in the offensive. KuK plan was an attack into Poland. Image
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When Brusilov, the finest Russian general of the war, advanced into Galicia, he assumed the KuK would defend from behind the river Gnila Lipa, rather than in front of it, because to do otherwise would be retarded. He was wrong. Image
The Russians had more, more modern, and better-used artillery, and put it to good use again and again. Image
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Austria-Hungary took 420,000 casualties against Russia in three weeks of fighting, more than the entire prewar standing army. Image
Defeat in Galicia brought forth A-H's ethnic tensions. One feature of multiethnic agglomerations is that they are fragile - when things are good, they can work, but they tend to crumble at setbacks, and there will always be setbacks. Image
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Defeat in Galicia was blamed on many things; one was the homosexual cabal in the General Staff, as exemplified by Russian spy Redl. Image
The destruction of the pre-war army, the major institution keeping Austria-Hungary together, turned A-H into a German dependent and eventually doomed the monarchy. Rebuilding the army from scratch brought in broader ethnic hatreds from civilian society. Image
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Gavrilo Princip, probably the most destructive and successful terrorist of all time, was not executed because Austria law forbid the death penalty for teenagers. Image

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More from @arctotherium42

Jul 25
Smarter people learn to cooperate more in Prisoner's Dilemmas over iterations (blue: higher Raven's Matrices score, red: lower Raven's Matrices score). This is plausibly one of the reasons for the "Hive Mind" effect (national IQ being more important than personal IQ). Image
Apropos of nothing: immigration lowers national IQ almost everywhere. Image
Also, men cooperate more than women. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 18
It's true that Mamdani's politics are not confined to a single race, but his sort of postcolonial/anti-white Fabian socialism has dominated Indian elites since the 30s and Asians in general, and Indians in particular, are the most ideologically* New Left race in the country. Image
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I think race (and ethnicity/LGBT - Mamdani's white support is probably ~50% Jewish and very gay) are much more salient to why Millennial socialism is a major political force than downwards mobility among elite. Image
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*I specify ideologically because ofc blacks vote (D) more. But blacks are voting more for gibs and racial patronage. Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jun 22
This is just silly. Between Lend-Lease and the Marshall Plan, Britain got about 300B (net, accounting for "reverse Lend Lease") dollars worth of free aid in WWII. This is almost exactly the same as the total aid Israel has received from the US in its entire history.
This does not count things like the extremely generous terms of the Anglo-American loan (long repayment schedule, below-inflation interest rate, the ability to suspend payments up to six times if it couldn't be afforded) or destroyers-for-bases as "aid."
Britain was far less ruined by WWII than any other major participant except the US, and poor British economic and financial performance is because Attlee was an actual true-believing Fabian socialist, and his continental equivalents were mostly Communists kept out of govt. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
Excerpts from "Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire." (1999) Image
Unconditional surrender was publicly adopted as a war goal in Jan 1943, with the idea of preventing WWIII, as many Germans, including Hitler, thought Germany had not been beaten militarily in WWI and as such wanted to fight WWII. This caused trouble later. Image
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(My opinion, not in the book, is that demanding true unconditional surrender was a mistake. Eisenhower wanted to publicly guarantee law, order, and property, because many German units resisted to the end out of fear. Since the US was going to respect those, should have said so.)
Read 29 tweets
Jun 17
Excerpts from "Shattered Sword" (2005), a history of the Battle of Midway. I assume the rough contours of Midway are broadly familiar. The key thing the book adds is use of untranslated Japanese sources, which debunked many common misconceptions about the battle. Image
The genesis of the simultaneous Japanese attacks on Midway and the Aleutians Islands: the IJN had won so hard so fast (Pearl Harbor, Malaya/Singapore, Indian Ocean raid, Philippines, Dutch East Indies), they didn't have any obvious next thing to do. Image
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On Yamamoto: he rose to the top of the IJN despite making many enemies for his stances on the Washington/London Naval Treaties (pro), carrier aviation (pro), and alliance with Nazi Germany (anti). Effectively took control by threatening to resign when he didn't get his way. Image
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Jun 12
Some excerpts from "India's War: WWII and the Making of Modern South Asia" by Srinath Raghavan, published in 2016. Image
First thing to understand about the Raj is that it was practically an empire of its own within the British one, and with a great of autonomy though not self-government. India was a signatory of the Treaty of Versailles. 30M Indians emigrated to other parts of the Empire. Image
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The Viceroy of India declared war without consulting any Indian body. The INC was generally torn between broad opposition to the Nazis and not wanting to cooperate with the Raj without further political concessions. Image
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Read 51 tweets

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