Thread by @SteB777

"Climate change-induced food price shocks are on the rise and could lead to more malnutrition, political upheaval and social unrest as the world’s poorest are hit by shortages of food staples."

I have been warning about this for decades.

1/🧵theguardian.com/business/2025/…

However, there is a fundamental flaw in the thinking of this research, which grossly under-estimates the threat from this danger, which I will outline here.

Most of these assumptions, mistakenly see a steadily increasing problem.
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Yes, climate change will result, over time in steadily rising impacts, but this totally overlooks the serious danger of sudden disruption.

In the real world, if you plot this over time, it will see this as a steady rise in impact. Not sudden impacts within a given year.
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However, from ecology, I am aware of how this works in the real world.

What matters, is not the steady, average food supply for a species over many years, but what happens in exceptionally bad years i.e. the minimum in a given year.
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This is what actually happens with populations of animals, where one year, or several bad years, can cause a crash in populations, because what matters is not the steady supply of food over time, but the sudden minimum in a given year.
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However, we are not talking about absolute shortages like in animal populations, but restricted supply compared to normal, in a market economy, where food is treated as a commodity, and food prices rapidly rise, if supply is restricted.
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The serious flaw in the thinking of studies like this, and other economic based studies, is they're based on averages over periods of time. Not what happens in a Black Swan Event, where lots of extreme weather events combine, to create exceptional shortages in a given year.
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Here this could create, food hyperinflation, much more than the inflationary figures cited here, which could affect, far more than just the poor. Where impacts on the poor, could have knock on effects, that impact everyone, if they rebel.
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If food prices go beyond what people can afford, for basic nutrition, it would incite serious social unrest, and perhaps, global conflict. Especially if some countries halted the export of staple foods (which has already happened, but it could happen on a bigger scale).
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The knock on effects, of this serious social unrest and conflict, could impact everyone. There is the false assumption that people in rich countries would be protected, but this is not the case in many realistic scenarios.
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Rich countries import large amounts of foodstuffs, even if they're fairly self-sufficient in staples. Theoretically, they could just do without certain imports, say coffee. In reality, people would be seriously disturbed by things they take for granted, if not essential.
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This could have knock on social, political and economic impacts.

It is profoundly mistaken to see the situation, in terms of linear patterns, steadily increasing over time. It could be very sudden, and unforeseen.
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This thinking, does not take into account, sudden non-linearity, such as Black Swan Events, which are not foreseen, but which are very plausible, and realistic. The theoretical, smooth patterns over time, cannot be relied on.

13/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swa…

We have to plan, for what might plausibly happen in a given year. Because if we are caught out, by a series of extreme weather events, that seriously impact food supplies, in a given year. It doesn't matter if supplies would theoretically return to normal, say the next year.
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If the social, political and economic upheaval, in a given year, leads to the collapse of regimes, wars and other conflict, there will not be a return to normal. Our system, as it is, could collapse, in a way very difficult to reverse.
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Famines, sudden scarcities of food, have been a feature of human society since the dawn of civilization, and there have been a number in my lifetime. However, changes in technology, farming methods, and global supply, has meant a big reduction in such events.
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Indeed, climate change deniers and minimizers, often point to a reduction in climate related deaths, which is actually down to the elimination of these famine events. But a changing climate, could vastly change and reverse this stability.
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In the modern world, we are used to a steady supply of things, predictable yields from year to year. But this relies, on a predictable climate, which is no longer the case. We have seen a big increase in catastrophic extreme weather events.
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Once again, it is not inconceivable, that within a given year, a series of extreme weather events, could combine to create severely reduced yields in a year, food hyperinflation, and serious disruption to our system, which could change things forever.
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If the system is seriously disrupted, it could prevent a return to the steady supplies the following year, which relies on a stable system, which may have been seriously disrupted.
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This is why I say, to avoid this threat, we must rapidly transition from the current, highly competitive, system, in which people, countries and corporations, compete at every level for profit, to a cooperative society, working towards the common good.
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The advocates of this highly competitive society, will point to it having lowered costs. But if food is treated as a commodity, and supply becomes restricted in a given year, in a free market economy, it will have the opposite effect, of rapidly driving up food prices.
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A sudden, massive increase in food prices, especially globally, far greater than anything seen so far, could tear our societies, and our relatively stable system apart.

I cannot understand the assumption that business as usual BaU, will continue indefinitely.
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All scientific parameters looking at climate change, indicate that the steady predictable climate we have enjoyed, and which made this stable system possible, is coming to an end.
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“There are now no non-radical futures. The choice is between immediate and profound social change or waiting a little longer for chaotic and violent social change. In 2023 the window for this choice is rapidly closing.” @KevinClimate

25/bellacaledonia.org.uk/2023/04/18/no-…

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