Craig Shapiro Profile picture
Jul 21 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The U.S. dollar built a global empire.

But that empire now feeds on its own people.

🧵 How dollar hegemony hollowed out America — and why the system is quietly collapsing:
The dollar gave the U.S. an unmatched privilege:

Borrow without limit

Fight wars without sacrifice

Consume more than it produces

Inflate assets for the rich

It worked brilliantly — until it didn’t.
It worked for the mean:
📈 GDP
📈 Stocks
📈 Multinational profits

But it failed the median American:
📉 Wages
📉 Job security
📉 Community stability
While the Fed printed and Treasury borrowed, this is what we got:

$8T spent on failed wars

800+ military bases

$36T in national debt

More spent on interest than on defense
Dollar supremacy let America offload inflation and import cheap goods.

But it also offshored its factories, gutted its industrial base, and turned entire regions into economic sacrifice zones.
Financial markets boomed.
Home prices soared.
Private equity got rich.

But the average American?
Crushed by debt.
Locked out of ownership.
Told everything’s fine.
It was empire on auto-pilot.

Wars fought on credit.
Wall Street bailed out.
Main Street left behind.

The elites called it “global leadership.”
Everyone else called it despair.
Now the illusion is cracking:

Global demand for Treasuries is fading

De-dollarization is real

Interest costs are exploding

And a political revolt is brewing
America must decide:
Keep borrowing to fund empire and illusions...
Or rebuild the Republic:

Reshore production

End forever wars

Invest in people and real strength
Dollar hegemony made America look strong — while making it fragile.

It’s time to retire the illusion.

💥 Read the full memo:
📉 How dollar dominance backfired
📈 What comes next
Here is the full length memo

open.substack.com/pub/thealethea…

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More from @ces921

Jul 18
Trump wants lower interest rates for a lot of reasons including to support the housing market which he reiterated this morning.

But will this actually happen if the Fed cuts ?

The short answer is NO

We tried to make housing more affordable.

What we created instead was a speculative vault, inflated by Fed policy and frozen by scarcity.

Here’s how the American Dream turned into a financial trap:
1/
🏠 The biggest irony in American economic policy?
The more we tried to make housing affordable, the more unaffordable it became.

A thread on how the Fed, tax code, and decades of “ownership-at-all-costs” policy created a speculative trap:
2/
Post-WWII America built a middle class through homeownership:
30-year mortgages, tax breaks, GI Bill, Fannie/Freddie, zoning protections.

But that model morphed.
Housing stopped being shelter.
It became a store of value.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 15
1/
It looks like China just won this round of the trade war.
They withheld rare earth exports, and now they’re getting NVIDIA chips again.

In return, the U.S. is easing tech export restrictions.
Let’s dive into the backchannel deals making this swap possible.
2/
📍 Geneva, May 2025: A symbolic tariff truce.
The U.S. agreed to pause new tariffs and lower existing levies.

China committed to resuming rare earth export licenses.

But implementation stalled as China slow-walked paperwork and the U.S. tightened chip controls.
3/
June 5: Trump and Xi spoke directly.

The White House called it “productive.”

Rare earths and tech export controls were central to the conversation.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 10
🧵 THREAD: The economy is booming but most Americans don’t feel it. Why? Because we’ve built a system that’s strong on paper, but hollow at its core. This is the K-shaped economy: a structure that works for fewer people, even as markets soar. A deep dive
1. On the surface, things look great:

•Stocks at all-time highs
•Unemployment near record lows
•Corporate profits surging

But look closer: Wages are stagnant. Housing is unaffordable. White-collar layoffs are rising.
2.We’re living in a K-shaped economy - one leg rising (capital owners, tech elites), one leg falling (wage earners, renters, displaced workers).

This isn’t just inequality. It’s divergence.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 7
Trump isn’t fighting inflation with traditional tools.
He’s managing it like a boss running a protection racket.

Welcome to the Boss Economy: a world where prices are controlled by fear, favor, and direct intervention from the top. 🧵
2/
Inflation is the linchpin of MAGA 2.0.
Trump won in 2024 because people felt crushed by prices and he promised to fix it with strength.

If inflation returns, the illusion shatters. His mandate collapses.
3/
So what’s the strategy?
It’s not Fed policy. It’s behavioral enforcement.

Trump pressures CEOs directly:

- Public shaming

- Backroom threats

- Regulatory muscle

- Rewarding loyalty with tariff relief
Read 11 tweets
Jul 5
Earlier this week there was discussion on FinTwit about how great of a Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been.

I would like to respectfully and wholeheartedly disagree.

The Powell Fed has proven that it no longer serves the public.

It has stopped fighting inflation, deepened inequality, and quietly handed monetary control back to the U.S. Treasury — all without saying a word.

That’s what Powell’s Fed has done.

A thread 🧵
2/
Under Jerome Powell, the Fed has adopted an unofficial third mandate:

👉 Protect asset prices
👉 Ensure smooth Treasury funding
👉 Avoid upsetting capital markets

Inflation targeting and full employment now come second — or not at all.
3/
QT was never real.

The Fed didn’t sell assets. It just let them roll off — passively. MBS were reinvested into Treasuries. The balance sheet remained enormous. Liquidity stayed plentiful.

Financial conditions eased even as rate hikes continued.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
🧵 The Great Transfer:

Bitcoin isn’t just an asset. It’s about to absorb trillions in monetary premium from U.S. housing.

Why? Because homes aren’t acting like shelter anymore. They’re acting like vaults—and bad ones. Here’s how it ends 🧵
2/
For decades, Americans used homes as their default savings vehicle.

But housing today is:

– Overvalued
– Tax-distorted
– High-carry
– Illiquid
– Politically fragile

And younger generations are locked out.
3/
Median U.S. home: $420K
Median U.S. income: $75K
Current affordability model: $260–280K

That ~$140K delta isn’t shelter value—it’s monetary premium.

A $20T distortion embedded in the U.S. housing market.
Read 12 tweets

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