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Simon Taylor Profile picture
@sytaylor
Jul 22 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Western Union is

- A $4.2bn revenue business
- Revenue down 3.2% YoY
- $150bn annual volume

Meanwhile Visa estimates "Retail-sized stablecoin transactions"

- $4.8bn monthly volume
- $57.6bn annualized
- Growing 1x to 4x YoY (if not much higher)
At 2.6bn Market Cap Western Union trades below its top line revenue ($4.2bn)

Contrast this with Circle trading at $48bn market cap - trading at 20x+ revenue, and 70x+ earnings

Clearly, CRCL is crowded, and there's hype.

But can the incumbent get innovation before the innovator gets distribution?
Excited to chat more about this on @TokenizedPod this coming week

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More from @sytaylor

Simon Taylor Profile picture
Aug 19
The world's first 50% stablecoin IPO just happened. Crypto exchange Bullish received $1.15bn in USDC.

This quietly changes everything about how public companies can raise capital. Image
What actually happened:

• Bullish (NYSE: BLSH) closed their IPO on August 14th
• 50%+ of proceeds came as stablecoins ($1.15bn total)
• Settlement across 8 different stablecoin types
• Majority minted on Solana, custodied by Coinbase
Why this matters - IPO's become more global:

- Traditional IPO is single currency, single jurisdiction
- This IPO had USD + EUR stablecoins from US, Europe, Asia
- The stablecoins also settle instantly (not T+2)
Read 7 tweets
Simon Taylor Profile picture
Aug 15
Nubank's results are INSANE. Every other bank CEO must look at these and be like... HOW?

Here's the breakdown...

* 122.7 million customers (+4.1M net additions)
* $3.7 billion revenue (+40% YoY)
* $637 million net income (+42% YoY)
* $12.2 monthly revenue per active customer (+18% YoY)
* $0.80 cost to serve per customer
* 83.2% monthly activity rateImage
That's a benchmark every other organization in finance should print out on their wall. Only webank in China (with 494m users) can beat.

The unit economics *almost* don't make sense:

- $0.80 cost to serve each customer
- $12.20 revenue per customer/month
- That's 15x return 🤯

Most banks struggle to hit 3x - That's the benefit of self-owned technology and a branchless servicing model.
Geographic Split:

* Brazil: 107.3M customers (60% of adult population)
* Mexico: 12M customers (13% of adult population)
* Colombia: 3.4M customers (10% of adult population)

That says to me, the newer markets are taking longer to penetrate. Where's the next growth engine coming from? Not many 200m + populations around 👀
Read 5 tweets
Simon Taylor Profile picture
Aug 14
Most people think stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized deposits are fighting to the death. They're not. They're building the same highway.

Here's what 99% of debate gets wrong:

These aren't competing technologies.

They're solving different problems for different people:

🧵 Image
Think of it like this:

- Stablecoins = Highway for the unbanked (or global south x global south trade)
- Tokenized Deposits = On-ramp for Fortune 500s
- CBDCs = Settlement layer for central banks

All three go onchain.

All three win.
The GENIUS Act was an inflection point and I've noticed tier-1 banks completely flip their approach.

GSIBs like Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. JP Morgan is now actively becoming a partner bank to the stablecoin sector as off ramps (payments access).

It doesn't take a giant leap to see them go from supporting with Tokenized Deposits.
Read 7 tweets
Simon Taylor Profile picture
Jul 18
We just lived through most consequential 24 hours in financial services law for the past two decades.

And it will bring the biggest transformation of financial technology since the 1970s.

Here's what happened and why it matters 👇
What Happened? 🤔

1. The GENIUS Act passed with a 308-122 bi-partisan vote in the House and is heading to the Presidents desk.

2. The CLARITY Act, clarifying SEC vs CFTC oversight passed House 294-133

3. Anti-CBDC Bill, prohibiting a retail CBDC also passed the house.
The last major bill was Dodd-Frank in 2010 which among other things:

1. Created capital requirements on banks - arguably making them less profitable

2. Carved out smaller banks (Sub $10bn in assets) to have less stringent oversight and make more from even swipe fee.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Taylor Profile picture
Jul 2
While everyone is debating Stablecoins. Pay by Bank is quietly becoming a FORCE in payments.

TrueLayer just launched Pay by Bank with Stripe in Germany.

But here's the timeline that explains why this matters: Image
2019: "What's Pay by Bank?"
2021: "Interesting experiment in the UK"
2023: "We should probably test this"
2024: Every major PSP picks their dance partner
2025: The invasion begins

Stripe + TrueLayer aren't just expanding to Germany.
They're taking the fight directly to Adyen + Tink's strongest market.

The numbers that explain why this was inevitable:
→ TrueLayer processes €1.4B annually in Germany
→ Merchants see 42% conversion uplift with Pay by Bank
→ Card fees: 1.5-2.9% vs Pay by Bank: 0.1-0.3%
Read 5 tweets
Simon Taylor Profile picture
Jun 26
Why did Kalshi just raise $185m at a $2bn valuation more than DOUBLE Polymarket's recent reported $1bn?

- Polymarket dominated election coverage.
- Had 10X the volume.
- Every journalist quoted their odds.
- They owned the narrative.
- But they can't touch US users.

The biggest prediction market in history... banned from its biggest market.

Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and able to advertise to US customers.Image
But what about prediction markets generally? Isn't it just gambling?

When you can't afford a house, can't trust institutions, can't build wealth through traditional means... why not bet on elections?

This is financial nihilism pricing in.

The social contract broke.

Prediction markets filled the void.

Young Americans are gambling because the "legitimate" path to wealth feels rigged anyway. Same odds, different casino.
But institutions see something else entirely.

- Paradigm didn't invest in sports betting.
- They invested in the infrastructure for conditional finance.
- Prediction markets are just conditional settlement rails.

Today it's "Will Trump win?" Tomorrow it's insurance contracts, derivatives, conditional payments.

If x outcome happens pay y to person z.
Read 6 tweets

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