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K A L E O Profile picture
@CryptoKaleo
Jul 22 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
The answer to this is $NIO.

Chart looks primed for a HTF breakout of a resistance dating back to the early 2021 peak.

I expect this has the chance to run it back turbo.

Here's my thesis 🧵👇 Image
The broader market has seen various 2020/2021 growth stocks that bottomed out with similar charts run it back to their highs over the course of the year so far.

One sector that hasn't yet - is EVs.

The space has been slept on, in large part due to the underperformance of TSLA.

I think that's about to change.
$TSLA looks ready to rip from a technical perspective, and from a fundamental perspective it's had enough people start publicly proclaiming it's funeral that I think it's in the perfect spot to wake up again.
The last time EVs had a major run was the summer of 2020.

While $TSLA obviously had the highest mcap and largest impact, the smaller names like $NIO actually outpaced for the first five months of the move.

As bullish as I am on TSLA, looking at the ratio chart NIO once again looks ready to outpace.Image
I started stacking this play earlier in the week, and while I wish it hadn't started moving so quickly yet - I still think this is a great opportunity to "buy into the momentum".

The price is at almost the identical level where it gapped up after breaking out in 2020.

Buying into the green days was a good play.

I'm not encouraging anyone to full port ape here, but I still think it's a solid time to start building a position.

I'll update my exact positions later - but I'm focusing primarily on calls with 2026 expiration dates.

No need to get greedy and try and time the move perfectly.

Give yourself enough time for this to play out.

Buying spot is also always a safe play and should still catch a lot of upside on this breakout.Image

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More from @CryptoKaleo

K A L E O Profile picture
May 27
Have a degen options experiment I want to run:

Put $20K and picked up a bunch of OTM $RIOT calls, mostly for January but with a few September ones mixed in.

If Bitcoin does what I think it will through the end of the year, I’m betting we see another major squeeze in miners.

The last major moves for RIOT aligned with BTC entering into price discovery above the previous cycles ATHs (similar to where we are now). When it moves - it moves fast.

I’m considering adding and possibly doubling my position if we get another week or two of RIOT trading within the current price channel.

Could easily see it pulling a 10x+ in a world where BTC is trading in the hundreds of thousands range (current mcap is only $3.8B).

I’ll keep y’all posted on this throughout the year.

Wish me luck.Image
Image
FWIW - I’m going into this with the full expectation these could end up being worth zero.

I think they give pretty cheap exposure to a violent move to the upside in the market. If RIOT has a similar move to what it’s done in the past, these could be worth multiple 7 figures (if I’m crazy enough to hold them that long)
But also if you’ve followed me for any extended period of time - you know that I’ve had several of these degens high conviction options bets that I’ve made, and that I’ve won.
Read 17 tweets
K A L E O Profile picture
Nov 18, 2024
I lost around $500K last week.

I want to share the story rather than hide it so hopefully a few of y’all who are going through something similar can learn from it, and maybe also help keep a few of you who haven’t experienced a big L yet from doing the same thing.

It started with several big wins riding the market up the last month. I had good discipline with where I was building my positions, what my stops were, overall game plan, etc. on the front end. As the pace of the market picked up, a few things happened:

1.Rather than taking a bit of profit riding the positions up, I doubled down and continued to size them up.
2.I began opening new positions in names where I felt FOMO, but not as much conviction.

Both of these things work fine on the way up, but when the market starts to tilt the other direction, you lose X amount more.

3.I hadn’t had a run like this in a while. I was so obsessed with managing what I had, I stopped sleeping. The more sleep deprived you are, the worse your decision making is.
4.I began to throw risk tolerance out the window, and used *where I was* when I was up as my new standard for where I felt like *I needed to be* when I was down. So after taking an L, I would size up to a point completely outside of my risk tolerance and make poor decisions because of it.

At this point, I was fully tilted. I wasn’t thinking rationally. My emotions had taken over.

5.I felt insane FOMO because of where Bitcoin is, and how bullish I am on where we’re heading over the next couple of years.
6.I felt embarrassed if I wasn’t able to claw out of this, because of the size of my account, the number of followers I have, the highs of where my account has been in the past and how successful some of my friends on here are.

I started selling positions I didn’t want to touch to get more capital to try and fight my way back. E.g. I sold my initial ARENA airdrop, which thankfully is only 15% of my total allocation, but it’s still so early in its lifespan and I’m so bullish on where it’s headed it hurt to touch it. It’s also a stake in a community, where although you believe you are doing it for the right reason at the time (your mind tilt justifies if you don’t do it, you won’t be able to have the $ you need to support them the way you want to) it comes off as a lack of belief in the project and community (which it isn’t). It’s only when you’ve had a bit of time to decompress and get untitled that you realize just how stupid you were.

When it’s all said and done, I was completely humbled by the market, again.

The issue is this a recurring theme for my time on here. Hard and fast runs up, followed by even harder and faster falls down.

I came across a passage in the end of the book of Job in the Bible recently where after Job has lost EVERYTHING he humbles himself before God and acknowledges he’s nothing without Him. He trusts His plan. And it follows by saying “And the Lord restored the fortunes of Job, when he had prayed for his friends. And the Lord gave Job twice as much as he had before.”

It made me realize I have been trusting my own plan for far too long. Every up and down I’ve ever had, I’ve been able to tell myself it’ll be alright because I have the ability to turn nothing into something via trading. In the pursuit of this, I have sacrificed so much. I haven’t worked nearly as hard at other things because I’ve been so focused on this singular purpose, that in essence has trended toward degenerate gambling.

It’s time for a change.

(Continued below)
After years of insane ups and downs, I’m giving up touching any leverage trading moving forward. I’ve talked about this passively with friends in the past, but I’ve never had the courage to take the step and say anything and cement it on here. I want to hold myself accountable and let y’all know where I am in my journey.

This has been a hard step to take because of how much it’s been a part of my identity. There’s also a part of me that actually believes I can hit X amount of millions doing it and I’m just one big move away from having it happen again. I accept this means I might have to rebuild more slowly and won’t be where I want to overnight and that’s fine. I accept some of y’all might not look at me the same way as you did before and that’s fine too. I’d rather be transparent and open with who I am and where I am than try and live up to something I’m not.

I might not ever have the same type of sexy PnL posts I’ve had in the past, but I also trust God has a plan for me in this. While I’m thankful I woke up to this before losing everything, I trust that like the Lord did for Job, he has the power to restore fortunes in His way. It may not be with wealth in the way it’s perceived and portrayed on here, but if it’s allowing me to grow closer with family and friends and make a bigger impact in a helpful way contributing to this community than just worrying about what the next massive W I can flex is, then that’s enough for me.

I know this is a long post and the majority of y’all probably didn’t take the time to read through it all, but for those of you who did - thank you. Hopefully this is helpful for a few of you. I’m sorry for not being the best version of myself on here in the past, and I recognize I won’t be perfect moving forward, but I’m excited to continue this journey of figuring everything out together from here.

We’re in an industry that I truly believe will be the highest growth sector out of any global market for decades to come. Be more bullish.
Fwiw - a lot of this stems from post FTX.

Was in a huge hole and the mindset since has always been I need to risk X amount more to make X amount more back or I’ll be stuck here.

Because of that risk, it’s led to me being stuck in that position even longer.

I’ll share the full story another time soon.

It’s pretty insane. Think you’ll find it entertaining and will probably be beneficial for me to just get everything out there too.
Read 4 tweets
K A L E O Profile picture
Nov 9, 2023
Here's my playbook for $DOGE:

Sometime in the next week or two, Dogecoin finally starts to move.

When DOGE starts moving higher, it usually moves pretty fast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a daily from here to somewhere in the 9 - 10 cents range, chop there for a bit, then another daily to ~15 cents. It'll be a fast move... maybe churn a bit higher from there, but as much as I'd love for it to go to $1+, I honestly don't see it getting too much past twenty cents on this rally.

I'm just looking for a touch of HTF resistance on the BTC pair around 550 sats (where I'm getting the 20 cents figure depending on what the price of Bitcoin is)

I don't think the real DOGE rally starts until later in 2024, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun before then.
Image
$DOGE is at nearly the exact same USD price it was when it started to giga-send in the Spring of 2021, price action before the breakout looks eerily similar too.

Long it with me here: partner.bybit.com/b/KaleoArmy

Image
Image
Didn’t realize that the SpaceX mission coming up at the end of the year was announced over two years ago now

That’s insane Image
Read 12 tweets
K A L E O Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
After careful thought and consideration, I am officially announcing my career move to an AI thought leader and analyst.
Make sure to follow me on LinkedIn for my first seminar next week!
The topic will be ChatGPT: how to use ChatGPT to teach AI, for beginners
Read 4 tweets
K A L E O Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
Daily trading competition top 10 update: currently need >32% to crack it.

Competition lasts through the end of March.

Join it for free here ➡️ bybit.com/en-US/bybitgam…
And yes you can trade Bitcoin, shitcoins, whatever your heart desires
and for transparency lol I've been a degen

I will make my comeback though
Read 5 tweets
K A L E O Profile picture
Jan 31, 2023
A short story
Another short story
Ladies and gentleman, may I introduce you to the new Jim Cramer
Read 4 tweets

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