Have a degen options experiment I want to run:

Put $20K and picked up a bunch of OTM $RIOT calls, mostly for January but with a few September ones mixed in.

If Bitcoin does what I think it will through the end of the year, I’m betting we see another major squeeze in miners.

The last major moves for RIOT aligned with BTC entering into price discovery above the previous cycles ATHs (similar to where we are now). When it moves - it moves fast.

I’m considering adding and possibly doubling my position if we get another week or two of RIOT trading within the current price channel.

Could easily see it pulling a 10x+ in a world where BTC is trading in the hundreds of thousands range (current mcap is only $3.8B).

I’ll keep y’all posted on this throughout the year.

Wish me luck.
FWIW - I’m going into this with the full expectation these could end up being worth zero.

I think they give pretty cheap exposure to a violent move to the upside in the market. If RIOT has a similar move to what it’s done in the past, these could be worth multiple 7 figures (if I’m crazy enough to hold them that long)

I lost around $500K last week.

I want to share the story rather than hide it so hopefully a few of y’all who are going through something similar can learn from it, and maybe also help keep a few of you who haven’t experienced a big L yet from doing the same thing.

It started with several big wins riding the market up the last month. I had good discipline with where I was building my positions, what my stops were, overall game plan, etc. on the front end. As the pace of the market picked up, a few things happened:

1.Rather than taking a bit of profit riding the positions up, I doubled down and continued to size them up.
2.I began opening new positions in names where I felt FOMO, but not as much conviction.

Both of these things work fine on the way up, but when the market starts to tilt the other direction, you lose X amount more.

3.I hadn’t had a run like this in a while. I was so obsessed with managing what I had, I stopped sleeping. The more sleep deprived you are, the worse your decision making is.
4.I began to throw risk tolerance out the window, and used *where I was* when I was up as my new standard for where I felt like *I needed to be* when I was down. So after taking an L, I would size up to a point completely outside of my risk tolerance and make poor decisions because of it.

At this point, I was fully tilted. I wasn’t thinking rationally. My emotions had taken over.

5.I felt insane FOMO because of where Bitcoin is, and how bullish I am on where we’re heading over the next couple of years.
6.I felt embarrassed if I wasn’t able to claw out of this, because of the size of my account, the number of followers I have, the highs of where my account has been in the past and how successful some of my friends on here are.

I started selling positions I didn’t want to touch to get more capital to try and fight my way back. E.g. I sold my initial ARENA airdrop, which thankfully is only 15% of my total allocation, but it’s still so early in its lifespan and I’m so bullish on where it’s headed it hurt to touch it. It’s also a stake in a community, where although you believe you are doing it for the right reason at the time (your mind tilt justifies if you don’t do it, you won’t be able to have the $ you need to support them the way you want to) it comes off as a lack of belief in the project and community (which it isn’t). It’s only when you’ve had a bit of time to decompress and get untitled that you realize just how stupid you were.

When it’s all said and done, I was completely humbled by the market, again.

The issue is this a recurring theme for my time on here. Hard and fast runs up, followed by even harder and faster falls down.

I came across a passage in the end of the book of Job in the Bible recently where after Job has lost EVERYTHING he humbles himself before God and acknowledges he’s nothing without Him. He trusts His plan. And it follows by saying “And the Lord restored the fortunes of Job, when he had prayed for his friends. And the Lord gave Job twice as much as he had before.”

It made me realize I have been trusting my own plan for far too long. Every up and down I’ve ever had, I’ve been able to tell myself it’ll be alright because I have the ability to turn nothing into something via trading. In the pursuit of this, I have sacrificed so much. I haven’t worked nearly as hard at other things because I’ve been so focused on this singular purpose, that in essence has trended toward degenerate gambling.

It’s time for a change.

(Continued below) After years of insane ups and downs, I’m giving up touching any leverage trading moving forward. I’ve talked about this passively with friends in the past, but I’ve never had the courage to take the step and say anything and cement it on here. I want to hold myself accountable and let y’all know where I am in my journey.

This has been a hard step to take because of how much it’s been a part of my identity. There’s also a part of me that actually believes I can hit X amount of millions doing it and I’m just one big move away from having it happen again. I accept this means I might have to rebuild more slowly and won’t be where I want to overnight and that’s fine. I accept some of y’all might not look at me the same way as you did before and that’s fine too. I’d rather be transparent and open with who I am and where I am than try and live up to something I’m not.

I might not ever have the same type of sexy PnL posts I’ve had in the past, but I also trust God has a plan for me in this. While I’m thankful I woke up to this before losing everything, I trust that like the Lord did for Job, he has the power to restore fortunes in His way. It may not be with wealth in the way it’s perceived and portrayed on here, but if it’s allowing me to grow closer with family and friends and make a bigger impact in a helpful way contributing to this community than just worrying about what the next massive W I can flex is, then that’s enough for me.

I know this is a long post and the majority of y’all probably didn’t take the time to read through it all, but for those of you who did - thank you. Hopefully this is helpful for a few of you. I’m sorry for not being the best version of myself on here in the past, and I recognize I won’t be perfect moving forward, but I’m excited to continue this journey of figuring everything out together from here.

We’re in an industry that I truly believe will be the highest growth sector out of any global market for decades to come. Be more bullish.

Here's my playbook for $DOGE:

Sometime in the next week or two, Dogecoin finally starts to move.

When DOGE starts moving higher, it usually moves pretty fast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a daily from here to somewhere in the 9 - 10 cents range, chop there for a bit, then another daily to ~15 cents. It'll be a fast move... maybe churn a bit higher from there, but as much as I'd love for it to go to $1+, I honestly don't see it getting too much past twenty cents on this rally.

I'm just looking for a touch of HTF resistance on the BTC pair around 550 sats (where I'm getting the 20 cents figure depending on what the price of Bitcoin is)

I don't think the real DOGE rally starts until later in 2024, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun before then.
$DOGE is at nearly the exact same USD price it was when it started to giga-send in the Spring of 2021, price action before the breakout looks eerily similar too.

Long it with me here: partner.bybit.com/b/KaleoArmy

After careful thought and consideration, I am officially announcing my career move to an AI thought leader and analyst. Make sure to follow me on LinkedIn for my first seminar next week!

Daily trading competition top 10 update: currently need >32% to crack it.

Competition lasts through the end of March.

Join it for free here ➡️ bybit.com/en-US/bybitgam…

https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1631028996463816704

And yes you can trade Bitcoin, shitcoins, whatever your heart desires

A short story

https://twitter.com/BtbJesse/status/1620238238194728960

Another short story

https://twitter.com/BtbJesse/status/1566273467506376704?s=20&t=0sddufOdS8cdXwMF_2WhZw

Yooo I know it’s early but can we end the @SorareNBA contest for this week right now? Because this would be my best ranking finish ever in any Champion league so far

sorare.pxf.io/KaleoArmy Alright 52 after the game ended gotta save it before it’s gone 🫡

(1/12) Whether you realize it or not, the next mini NFT bull market is here.

All of the necessary catalysts are in place, and the fuse to ignite the rally has already been lit.

Here's why: (2/12) Contrary to the narrative circulating that NFTs have always sold off into ETH strength - the first major ETH NFT bull run in July - Sept of '21 coincided with ETH having a major rally from $1.7K to $4K off its summer lows.

Why I believe SorareNBA has the opportunity to be one of the next big things in NFTs: 🧵 In 2021, we saw the rise and fall of NBA TopShot – a platform issuing collectibles that were meant to capture extraordinary moments in time from the NBA game.

They started out as an incredible success, onboarding thousands of people into NFTs.

BEEN A PENG FOR LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND GETTING READY TO UNSEAT @notthreadguy @notthreadguy HOW ARE THESE TWEETS PER DAY NUMBERS REAL???

(1/27) It would have been impossible for SBF / FTX to have been ignorant to the $10B hole in their balance sheet much earlier than their November 8th insolvency.

Here’s why: (2/27) You might have seen my previous thread comparing the FTX Insolvency to what happened to Mango Markets.

https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1598812761538134016?s=20&t=xRT_dzNFNE5-KhNiLwoIEA

You want to know what's insane?

Using the real weight of the "collateral" FTX had on their books, Alameda should have been liquidated much closer to ~June along with 3AC.

They were struggling well before the credit crunch that hit the industry after the LUNA collapse. This assumes the "liabilities" outlined by SBF's email has some semblance of truth, and that Alameda accounted for the majority of FTX's liabilities.

It uses calculations from FTX's books shared post insolvency.

1) How FTX really ended up with a $10 Billion hole: 2) Nov 8th, FTX froze withdrawals due to a lack of collateral. What was one of the titans of the industry less than a month before the fall, seemingly overnight turned into a headline for one of the largest cases of fraud and financial mismanagement in over a decade.

Oil / energy might be the most bullish market sector in 2023.

Why? 🧵 The Biden administration tapped into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a means of suppressing prices to help provide some sense of relief to the American people at a time when inflation rates were the highest we've seen in decades.

LET’S GOOOO Also snagged a new cooling pad for the laptop - makes a surprisingly significant performance improvement

#Bitcoin / $BTC

Squeeze it back to $18K. #Bitcoin / $BTC

NOT A BAD START

I’ve started to explore the realm of crypto YouTube - and this shit is ridiculous.

Who in their right minds makes a video w/ a title

“$100 to $10K Binance Futures Day Trading Strategy Guide FOR BEGINNERS”

That’s unconscionable. Zero beginners to trading should ever attempt Futures Day Trading to begin with, but to put out a guide w/ a “here’s how YOU can do a 100X if you’re a beginner!” is insane.

#Bitcoin / $BTC

If I had zero clue about what was happening with the FTX unwind and contagion and just looked at the charts, this is what I would expect. #Bitcoin / $BTC

Zooming in, a continuation lower before any type of bounce is the most likely scenario.

We've already seen the inverse pennant break lower, & the next solid support level converges at the retest of the HTF trend breakout & support from 2019-2020 base range highs

The past 24 hours have been extremely difficult.

I took a huge loss, and an exchange I trusted for years is at the center of one of the largest bank runs we’ve witnessed in crypto.

I know I’m not the only impacted by this, & my heart goes out to others in a similar situation. Last night I was completely in the dark. I wanted to comment on everything happening, but I was stuck processing it myself.

I thought the most prudent thing to do was sit on the sidelines until more facts were uncovered.

Interesting. Just said the word interesting. Wanted to see the reactions.

fwiw - don't believe there's actually anything here.

Showing how easy is it to look at this type of shit and draw unfounded inferences.

BNB is centralized so think the real damage was limited to a little over $100M.

I still think Bitcoin has another month or two of accumulation beneath $25K before the market really ramps up.

Now is the time to buckle down and work your ass off to get yourself ready for the mini bull run back to $40K - $50K that happens next. It’s actually laughable to think how many people in the replies think this is crazy.