Thread by @leckie_cameron

1. In trying to draw out lessons that 🇦🇺 should heed in developing its next National Defence Strategy, @WarInTheFuture has produced a classic example of why, for the sake of our national security, his analysis should be ignored

lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

2. Ryan claims that "democracies face a sustained, multi-generational confrontation with the major authoritarian powers" & suggests that understanding the vulnerabilities of the 'authoritarian' powers is important so they might be targeted to degrade

3. their aggression, resources and influence

This is empire evangelism 101, a thinly veiled attempt to justify the re-establishment of 🇺🇸 hegemonic power, aka the 'rules based order'

4. Note the mantras, 'democracy' versus 'authoritarian', or IOW good vs evil

Exposing the underlying justification for what I call the West's 'Crusade against Multipolarity'

For democracy & authoritarian are largely meaningless terms if applied literally

5. The so-called democracies are now more accurately described as plutocracies & increasingly authoritarian, as the responses to protests against genocide amply demonstrate

(Note how Ryan has never compared civilian casualty rates in 🇺🇦 from 🇷🇺 missile strikes to 🇮🇱 in Gaza)

6. Meanwhile the major authoritarian powers, 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺 are, on the whole, demonstrably providing better outcomes for their people than Western governments are for theirs

7. Ryan rightly points out that this is a multi-generational confrontation, but from the opposite direction

The leading Western powers have been attempting to maintain hegemonic power for decades (the Wolfowitz doctrine was released in 1992) & have shown no sign of slowing down

8. despite ever growing failure, as encapsulated by the phrase 'no reverse gear'

Of course, the non Wesern powers are well aware of the West's objectives (which are openly & extensively documented, for example RANDs 'Extending 🇷🇺" or Brookings 'Which Path to Persia')

9. Ryan frames this euphemistically, when he states "targeted to degrade their aggression, resources and influence" which could be seen as both an admission of defeat (resources & influence), & a call to arms (to target)

10. The omissions in Ryan's analysis are glaring. There is no acknowledgement of the West's actions that have led to either the war in 🇺🇦, nor the broader confrontation

The West as victim... 🤦‍♂️

Nor any acknowledgement of how weak the West is across all dimensions of power

11. An example being when he speaks of Trump's ultimatum to 🇷🇺, as if the 🇺🇸 has any leverage

Or suggesting that increased weapons to 🇺🇦 may follow even though it is abundantly clear that NATO lacks the industrial capacity to match 🇷🇺 , let alone 🇨🇳

12. Nor has Ryan ever, to my knowledge, examined why the multi-polar world has gained so much influence, for if he were to do so, it would undermine his own anachronistic views & prejudices

13. Let's hope that the team developing 🇦🇺 National Defence Strategy has a less blinkered, less ideological, more realistic view of the world than Ryan does

For Ryan's proscription will see 🇦🇺 sacrifice its future at the altar of the 'rules-based order' just as 🇺🇦s has been