Cameron Leckie Profile picture
Jul 23 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1. In trying to draw out lessons that ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ should heed in developing its next National Defence Strategy, @WarInTheFuture has produced a classic example of why, for the sake of our national security, his analysis should be ignored

lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreteโ€ฆ 2. Ryan claims that "democracies face a sustained, multi-generational confrontation with the major authoritarian powers" & suggests that understanding the vulnerabilities of the 'authoritarian' powers is important so they might be targeted to degrade
Jul 7 โ€ข 7 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1. @JAParker29 via @ASPI_org offers a truly abysmal analysis on so many levels

"if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests"

Not the least of which is conflating the fate of ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ with ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ vital interests

aspistrategist.org.au/dont-kid-yoursโ€ฆ 2. The focus of the entire article is an invasion of ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ by ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

But never considers the obvious trigger for any conflict being the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ efforts to contain, disrupt & ultimately defeat ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ is just a tool for the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ to bring about such an occurrence, just as ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ was for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ
Jul 2 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1. @stephendziedzic via @abcnews
Creates a fake setback for ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ PM "has delivered a blow to ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ security ambitions in the Pacific"

โš ๏ธ ๐Ÿšจ ๐Ÿ˜ฒ

The PM said ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ bases aren't welcome but

abc.net.au/news/2025-07-0โ€ฆ 2. "also stressed he doesn't believe that ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is actively looking for such a security foothold in the Pacific"

So if ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ isn't looking for a military bases in the Pacific, how does ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ not supporting ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ having bases equate to a "blow"?

In an admittedly quick search, I can't
Apr 16 โ€ข 7 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1. Why I am ๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธ reason #2

#AUKUS

AKA as the 'worst deal of the century', it is a symptom of everything wrong with ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ defence policy

An anachronism to times past

A wealth transfer to the Military Industrial Complex

A loss of sovereignty

It's got to be stopped #auspol โœ‹๏ธ Image 2. As both a retired Army officer & soil scientist, I am far more concerned about the state of our environment than any credible military threat ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ faces. Image
Dec 30, 2024 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1. @TheLyonsDen end of year geopolitical review ๐Ÿ‘‡

Some Q's, some comments, and some curious omissions

abc.net.au/news/2024-12-3โ€ฆ 2. Lyons:

Hamas killed 1,200 people on October 7 (stated twice)

But did they John?

Even @abcnews has covered the widespread allegations that many of the victims on that day were killed by ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ ๐Ÿ‘‡

Why state as fact something that is clearly not certain?

abc.net.au/news/2024-09-0โ€ฆ
Dec 8, 2024 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
I'm confused

Didn't we fight a 20 year '๐ŸŒŽ War on Terror' against al Qaeda, Islamic State, Al Nusra & their off shoots, including HTS?

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ even has a clasp for the Active Service Medal for the 'International Coalition Against Terror' Image 2. A war on terror that resulted in millions of deaths, tens of millions displaced - creating ongoing refugee crises, & multiple countries ruined

Now we are seeing a secular sovereign state ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ being over run by a well trained & equipped terrorist organisation/s
Nov 8, 2024 โ€ข 10 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1. Jon Anderson, via @johnmenadue, suggests that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ being provoked by NATO expansion doesnโ€™t stand up to scrutiny.

I would suggest that his reasoning doesnโ€™t stand up to scrutiny.

johnmenadue.com/?p=406247 2. Anderson's rebuttal of a recent Eugene Doyle piece ๐Ÿ‘‡ is replete with omissions, inaccuracies & spurious arguments.

It deserves a complete rebuttal, but I will just cover a few.

johnmenadue.com/?p=405544
Oct 21, 2024 โ€ข 18 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1. An amazing experience!

I have just returned from a week in ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ visiting Lanzhou (Gansu Province) and Yangling (Shaanxi Province)

Link๐Ÿ‘‡explains what the trip was about

This๐Ÿงตdescribes my, admittedly anecdotal, observations

linkedin.com/pulse/some-refโ€ฆ 2. Infrastructure.

The scale and general quality of the infrastructure was quite incredible.

Whether that be roads, urban development, airports and rail, there has, and continues to be a huge investment in infrastructure of all kinds, that is quite remarkable.
Aug 24, 2024 โ€ข 14 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
1. #auspol's Senate (& @abcnews) appears to have lost its mind

The question for me always comes back to in whose interests are they governing

It is hard to see how the answer, as ๐Ÿ‘‡ suggests, is the ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ people

What benefit do we gain from this motion?

abc.net.au/news/2024-08-2โ€ฆ 2. The motion that stated that UN Resolution 2758 of 25 Oct 1971 does not establish the ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ sovereignty over ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ and does not determine the future status of ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ in the United Nations, nor Taiwanese participation in UN agencies or international organizations
Aug 8, 2024 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1. Security 'from' Asia it is apparently.

At least according to this @ASPI_org 'senior analyst'

"๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ foreign policy tilt under Anwar naturally raises questions about its long-term value as a bilateral and multilateral security partner to ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ"

2. "Anwar has recast ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ non-aligned, hedged foreign policy with his repeated embrace of neutrality as his preferred setting for ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ"

What is wrong with that?

Anwar's "visceral reactions to the ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€“Hamas conflict"

Visceral - a normal response to a genocide I would suggest
Aug 4, 2024 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1. Two @abcnews articles on the "cost of living" crisis.

What is the ๐Ÿ˜ in the room missing?

๐Ÿค”

Energy. Or more specifically surplus energy


abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0โ€ฆ
abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0โ€ฆ 2. The energy cost of energy is gradually but relentlessly rising

Hence Dr Tim Morgan's assessment that:

"the prosperity of the ๐ŸŒŽ average person has already stopped growing"

The trend will/can only get worse over time.

surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/
Feb 29, 2024 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1. Some excerpts from Putin's lengthy address. The address mostly focused on domestic issues but in the context of the SMO.

"What can I say, indeed, Russophobia, like other ideology of racism, national superiority and exclusivity, blinds and deprives one of reason" 2. "We ... will continue to create efficient and secure logistics corridors and build a new global financial architecture, free from political interference, on an advanced technological basis"

The West "they are sawing off the branch on which they have been sitting for decades"
Jan 13, 2024 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Sent ๐Ÿ‘‡ as an email to my local #auspol MP this morning.

Subj: ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ: Complicity in Breaching International Law

I am writing to express my deepest concerns over ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ's involvement in supporting the recent attacks by the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ & ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง against the Houthis in ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช. I express these concerns on multiple levels.

The most direct is ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บโ€™s complicity in a breach of international law. The United Nations Security Council Resolution did not authorize military action against the Houthis.
Feb 14, 2023 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
1/ Haven't seen much of @WarintheFuture on @abcnews or @smh recently.

Thought they might have ditched him, but alas not.

A critique of his latest ๐Ÿ‘‡

2/ Starting with the headline:

'A year after ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invaded ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, Putin is beginning new offensives โ€“ and he desperately needs a victory'

Where is the evidence that he is desperate?

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is solid as a rock, hardened by the external pressure. It is methodical not desperate
Feb 13, 2023 โ€ข 10 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
1/ Dave Sharma's piece for the @LowyInstitute is a prime example of the 'stoned state' that results from the 'inhalation of our own propaganda' as Chas Freeman so eloquently describes it.

All the usual tropes about evil ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ, none of the context.

2/ Sharma claims that the 'ultimate outcome remains in the balance'

Highly optimistic if not plain misleading.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ is running out of trained troops, weapons systems and ammunition.

Meanwhile ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is getting stronger as its mobilisation nears completion and its MIC ramps up.
Jan 17, 2023 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
1/ @abcnews reports ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ troops deploying to ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง to train ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ troops. ๐Ÿ‘‡

Let's do some mathematactics

Using Von Der Leyen's figures, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ casualties ~10K KIA/month.

Operation INTERFLEX will train 20K ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 'recruits' this year.
abc.net.au/news/2023-01-1โ€ฆ 2/ So a years worth of training will cover just 2 months of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ KIA, even less if we consider wounded.

Does that sound sustainable?

Now if we consider that

a. these poor sods are receiving only a few weeks training to get them 'as "combat ready" as possible'
Jan 17, 2023 โ€ข 18 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
1/ @WarInTheFuture is at it again ๐Ÿ‘‡

The longer this war progresses, the greater the divergence between his analysis and the real ๐ŸŒŽ

abc.net.au/news/2023-01-1โ€ฆ 2/ Ryan is still claiming ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Kharkiv successes as being recent.

It should be clear by now that any momentum ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ achieved has now been lost and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is unlikely to be caught out again, particularly with its 'partial mobilisation' now nearing completion.
Dec 29, 2022 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
1/ This @smh OP is an example of how the Western ๐ŸŒŽ, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ included, has become locked into its own rhetoric, which as Patrick Lawrence has pointed out:

โ€˜this degree of surreal detachment from reality simply cannot be sustained indefinitelyโ€™

A thread

smh.com.au/world/europe/uโ€ฆ 2/ The author claims that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is targeting civilians. Whilst ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ civilians are of course dying from ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ missile strikes (and its corollary โ€“ from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ air defence), if ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ was actually targeting civilians the number of casualties would be orders of magnitude higher.
Oct 27, 2022 โ€ข 16 tweets โ€ข 6 min read
1/ Dear @AlboMP @SenatorWong @RichardMarlesMP

I have some questions on your decision to send ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ tps to train ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆtps in the ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง

Q1 What is the intelligence assessment of the progress of the war?

The media narrative suggests that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€˜is winning.โ€™ This appears implausible. 2/ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has significantly outnumbered ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ throughout the war, yet ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has captured/annexed significant areas. It is true that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has recaptured some areas but has come nowhere close to landing a knockout blow.

Itโ€™s offensive has all but run out of steam with ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ defences hardening.
Oct 18, 2022 โ€ข 10 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
A brief critique of another terrible article by an ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ academic, this time by @ANUBellSchool Fellow Matthew Sussex

Another example where the hatred of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ precludes lucid analysis

theconversation.com/vladimir-putinโ€ฆ First, look at the sources. Every one that is critical of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ comes from a Western source (e.g. BBC, Guardian, WaPo, Reuters) none of whom could claim to be unbiased or an anti-๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ source (e.g. Meduza).

If you were looking for an echo chamber, then Sussex has found one...
Oct 11, 2022 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
@SenatorWong highlights the degeneracy, hypocrisy & ahistoricism of #auspol foreign policy.

We must do much better if ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ is to navigate the unfolding changes in the ๐ŸŒŽ & the resulting security & economic changes.

A short thread
Targeting civilians?

Selective outrage-o-meter:
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ bombs ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - 0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ bombs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ/Palestine - 0
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ drones kill 90% civilians - 0
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ bombs Donbass - 0
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ bombs ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - apopopletic

Selective outrage is not a defensible approach to foreign policy

Dozens of missiles fired but