1. @TheLyonsDen end of year geopolitical review 👇

Some Q's, some comments, and some curious omissions

abc.net.au/news/2024-12-3… 2. Lyons:

Hamas killed 1,200 people on October 7 (stated twice)

But did they John?

Even @abcnews has covered the widespread allegations that many of the victims on that day were killed by 🇮🇱 👇

Why state as fact something that is clearly not certain?

abc.net.au/news/2024-09-0…

I'm confused

Didn't we fight a 20 year '🌎 War on Terror' against al Qaeda, Islamic State, Al Nusra & their off shoots, including HTS?

🇦🇺 even has a clasp for the Active Service Medal for the 'International Coalition Against Terror' 2. A war on terror that resulted in millions of deaths, tens of millions displaced - creating ongoing refugee crises, & multiple countries ruined

Now we are seeing a secular sovereign state 🇸🇾 being over run by a well trained & equipped terrorist organisation/s

1. Jon Anderson, via @johnmenadue, suggests that 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 being provoked by NATO expansion doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

I would suggest that his reasoning doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

johnmenadue.com/?p=406247 2. Anderson's rebuttal of a recent Eugene Doyle piece 👇 is replete with omissions, inaccuracies & spurious arguments.

It deserves a complete rebuttal, but I will just cover a few.

johnmenadue.com/?p=405544

1. An amazing experience!

I have just returned from a week in 🇨🇳 visiting Lanzhou (Gansu Province) and Yangling (Shaanxi Province)

Link👇explains what the trip was about

This🧵describes my, admittedly anecdotal, observations

linkedin.com/pulse/some-ref… 2. Infrastructure.

The scale and general quality of the infrastructure was quite incredible.

Whether that be roads, urban development, airports and rail, there has, and continues to be a huge investment in infrastructure of all kinds, that is quite remarkable.

1. #auspol's Senate (& @abcnews) appears to have lost its mind

The question for me always comes back to in whose interests are they governing

It is hard to see how the answer, as 👇 suggests, is the 🇦🇺 people

What benefit do we gain from this motion?

abc.net.au/news/2024-08-2… 2. The motion that stated that UN Resolution 2758 of 25 Oct 1971 does not establish the 🇨🇳 sovereignty over 🇹🇼 and does not determine the future status of 🇹🇼 in the United Nations, nor Taiwanese participation in UN agencies or international organizations

1. Security 'from' Asia it is apparently.

At least according to this @ASPI_org 'senior analyst'

"🇲🇾 foreign policy tilt under Anwar naturally raises questions about its long-term value as a bilateral and multilateral security partner to 🇦🇺"

https://x.com/ASPI_org/status/1821461344522276894?t=EaLooIVbqYs8IXa-DjoQTA&s=19

2. "Anwar has recast 🇲🇾 non-aligned, hedged foreign policy with his repeated embrace of neutrality as his preferred setting for 🇲🇾"

What is wrong with that?

Anwar's "visceral reactions to the 🇮🇱 –Hamas conflict"

Visceral - a normal response to a genocide I would suggest

1. Two @abcnews articles on the "cost of living" crisis.

What is the 🐘 in the room missing?

🤔

Energy. Or more specifically surplus energy


abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0…
abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0… 2. The energy cost of energy is gradually but relentlessly rising

Hence Dr Tim Morgan's assessment that:

"the prosperity of the 🌎 average person has already stopped growing"

The trend will/can only get worse over time.

surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/

1. Some excerpts from Putin's lengthy address. The address mostly focused on domestic issues but in the context of the SMO.

"What can I say, indeed, Russophobia, like other ideology of racism, national superiority and exclusivity, blinds and deprives one of reason" 2. "We ... will continue to create efficient and secure logistics corridors and build a new global financial architecture, free from political interference, on an advanced technological basis"

The West "they are sawing off the branch on which they have been sitting for decades"

Sent 👇 as an email to my local #auspol MP this morning.

Subj: 🇦🇺: Complicity in Breaching International Law

I am writing to express my deepest concerns over 🇦🇺's involvement in supporting the recent attacks by the 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 against the Houthis in 🇾🇪. I express these concerns on multiple levels.

The most direct is 🇦🇺’s complicity in a breach of international law. The United Nations Security Council Resolution did not authorize military action against the Houthis.

1/ Haven't seen much of @WarintheFuture on @abcnews or @smh recently.

Thought they might have ditched him, but alas not.

A critique of his latest 👇

https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1625202023993073669?s=20&t=k1d8VDM53wRPU7HoFpIcOQ

2/ Starting with the headline:

'A year after 🇷🇺 invaded 🇺🇦, Putin is beginning new offensives – and he desperately needs a victory'

Where is the evidence that he is desperate?

🇷🇺 is solid as a rock, hardened by the external pressure. It is methodical not desperate

1/ Dave Sharma's piece for the @LowyInstitute is a prime example of the 'stoned state' that results from the 'inhalation of our own propaganda' as Chas Freeman so eloquently describes it.

All the usual tropes about evil 🇷🇺, none of the context.

https://twitter.com/LowyInstitute/status/1624958461908754434?t=IihKacRUmknV75Yx-v-_5w&s=19

2/ Sharma claims that the 'ultimate outcome remains in the balance'

Highly optimistic if not plain misleading.

🇺🇦 is running out of trained troops, weapons systems and ammunition.

Meanwhile 🇷🇺 is getting stronger as its mobilisation nears completion and its MIC ramps up.

1/ @abcnews reports 🇦🇺 troops deploying to 🇬🇧 to train 🇺🇦 troops. 👇

Let's do some mathematactics

Using Von Der Leyen's figures, 🇺🇦 casualties ~10K KIA/month.

Operation INTERFLEX will train 20K 🇺🇦 'recruits' this year.
abc.net.au/news/2023-01-1… 2/ So a years worth of training will cover just 2 months of 🇺🇦 KIA, even less if we consider wounded.

Does that sound sustainable?

Now if we consider that

a. these poor sods are receiving only a few weeks training to get them 'as "combat ready" as possible'

1/ @WarInTheFuture is at it again 👇

The longer this war progresses, the greater the divergence between his analysis and the real 🌎

abc.net.au/news/2023-01-1… 2/ Ryan is still claiming 🇺🇦 Kharkiv successes as being recent.

It should be clear by now that any momentum 🇺🇦 achieved has now been lost and 🇷🇺 is unlikely to be caught out again, particularly with its 'partial mobilisation' now nearing completion.

1/ This @smh OP is an example of how the Western 🌎, 🇦🇺 included, has become locked into its own rhetoric, which as Patrick Lawrence has pointed out:

‘this degree of surreal detachment from reality simply cannot be sustained indefinitely’

A thread

smh.com.au/world/europe/u… 2/ The author claims that 🇷🇺 is targeting civilians. Whilst 🇺🇦 civilians are of course dying from 🇷🇺 missile strikes (and its corollary – from 🇺🇦 air defence), if 🇷🇺 was actually targeting civilians the number of casualties would be orders of magnitude higher.

1/ Dear @AlboMP @SenatorWong @RichardMarlesMP

I have some questions on your decision to send 🇦🇺 tps to train 🇺🇦tps in the 🇬🇧

Q1 What is the intelligence assessment of the progress of the war?

The media narrative suggests that 🇺🇦 ‘is winning.’ This appears implausible. 2/ 🇺🇦 has significantly outnumbered 🇷🇺 throughout the war, yet 🇷🇺 has captured/annexed significant areas. It is true that 🇺🇦 has recaptured some areas but has come nowhere close to landing a knockout blow.

It’s offensive has all but run out of steam with 🇷🇺 defences hardening.

A brief critique of another terrible article by an 🇦🇺 academic, this time by @ANUBellSchool Fellow Matthew Sussex

Another example where the hatred of 🇷🇺 precludes lucid analysis

theconversation.com/vladimir-putin… First, look at the sources. Every one that is critical of 🇷🇺 comes from a Western source (e.g. BBC, Guardian, WaPo, Reuters) none of whom could claim to be unbiased or an anti-🇷🇺 source (e.g. Meduza).

If you were looking for an echo chamber, then Sussex has found one...

@SenatorWong highlights the degeneracy, hypocrisy & ahistoricism of #auspol foreign policy.

We must do much better if 🇦🇺 is to navigate the unfolding changes in the 🌎 & the resulting security & economic changes.

A short thread

https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1579573347775836161?t=KE1eVnTdcV7iorTK8LmvpQ&s=19

Targeting civilians?

Selective outrage-o-meter:
🇸🇦 bombs 🇾🇪 - 0
🇮🇱 bombs 🇸🇾/Palestine - 0
🇺🇸 drones kill 90% civilians - 0
🇺🇦 bombs Donbass - 0
🇷🇺 bombs 🇺🇦 - apopopletic

Selective outrage is not a defensible approach to foreign policy

Dozens of missiles fired but

1/ A critique of @WarintheFuture latest @smh article arguing for more 🇦🇺 support to 🇺🇦.

Firstly, he is not an unbiased 'military strategist' openly acknowledging that he is involved in the info ops against 🇷🇺

This influences his analysis of events/

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1577180481698742272?s=20&t=8YvVcuwRykXSJ80Lmvhq5wRykXSJ80Lmvhq5w

2/ He raises 🇦🇺 Govt expenditure of $388M or 0.06% of spending as being too small.

Yet, in comparison the Govt is only spending $200M/yr on 'Prevent, Prepare, Rebuild' for disaster readiness.

Huge opportunity costs to 🇦🇺 for ongoing support to 🇺🇦.

1/

This article highlights the utter incompetence, arrogance & delusional thinking of the leaders of the Western 🌎.

abc.net.au/news/2022-06-2… 2/

Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin 'had failed to break the unity of the G7'

Yet '🇩🇪 also expected its proposal for a temporary waiver on biofuel mandates, designed to combat soaring food prices, would fail to secure G7 backing due to 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇦 resistance.'

G7 unity?