1. Can this thread outperform a CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY 'influence operation'?

16K views and 29 reposts - that all we need folks!

For according to @ASPI_org, @CGTNOfficial & @globaltimesnews amplified Beijing's talking points!

Shocking - I know!

aspistrategist.org.au/the-digital-ba… 2. The drama is all about 'flare-gate', the PLA releasing flares in proximity to a RAAF P8

Somewhere in the South China Sea on 19 Oct 2025

The cyber sleuth's at ASPI, detected an 'influence operation' lasting from 20 - 24 Oct 2025

@AlboMP met the 🇨🇳 Premier on 27 Oct

1. This is truly deranged from @Dr_M_Davis

🇦🇺 not being ready for 'war' is a function of 🇦🇺 not facing a credible threat

Other than those which we create through the 🇺🇸 alliance & being a vassal of the empire

Look at the example he uses

🇹🇼

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ 2. 🤡 🌎 stuff, unless you're a nihilistic #EmpireEvangelist

'If' 🇨🇳 decided to do something militarily about 🇹🇼, the most likely trigger being a declaration of independence at the behest of the 🇺🇸 as a casus balli for war with 🇨🇳, what could 🇦🇺 do?

Any military effort would

1. Another must 📚 contribution by @baoshaoshan

"While the 🇺🇸 struggles to rebuild the factories of yesterday, 🇨🇳 is building the industrial geography of tomorrow"

At this point, it should be clear that the 🇨🇳 'operating system' has won

open.substack.com/pub/warwickpow… 2. Not only has it won, but the gap is & will grow wider as @baoshaoshan highlights

The rational steps for the 🇺🇸 & collective West is not to try & build an alternate to the 🇨🇳 system to 'decouple' or achieve 'supply chain resilience' (e.g. 👇)

aspistrategist.org.au/without-supply…

1. It's worth remembering that the Trump-Putin negotiations, at least to 🇷🇺, are about much than whether a particular Oblast in 🇺🇦 becomes 🇷🇺 or not

🇷🇺 primary objectives were outlined in the draft treaty proposed by 🇷🇺 in December 2021

comw.org/pda/fulltext/R… 2. Article One:

"The Parties shall cooperate on the basis of principles of indivisible,
equal and undiminished security and to these ends:

- shall not undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party"

1. Improving 🇦🇺 🇨🇳 relations

One step at a time

I had the opportunity to listen to @RuanZongzeCGBne 🇨🇳 Consul General (CG) at @unisqaus today

A very interesting talk & discussion on 🇨🇳 perspective on 🌎 affairs & 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations 2. The CG started by reflecting on how facism was defeated 80 years ago, including 🇨🇳 significant role, yet we are now at a crossroads:

Peace vs War

Openness vs division

Win-Win vs Zero Sum

1. In trying to draw out lessons that 🇦🇺 should heed in developing its next National Defence Strategy, @WarInTheFuture has produced a classic example of why, for the sake of our national security, his analysis should be ignored

lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete… 2. Ryan claims that "democracies face a sustained, multi-generational confrontation with the major authoritarian powers" & suggests that understanding the vulnerabilities of the 'authoritarian' powers is important so they might be targeted to degrade

1. @JAParker29 via @ASPI_org offers a truly abysmal analysis on so many levels

"if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests"

Not the least of which is conflating the fate of 🇹🇼 with 🇦🇺 vital interests

aspistrategist.org.au/dont-kid-yours… 2. The focus of the entire article is an invasion of 🇹🇼 by 🇨🇳

But never considers the obvious trigger for any conflict being the 🇺🇸 efforts to contain, disrupt & ultimately defeat 🇨🇳

🇹🇼 is just a tool for the 🇺🇸 to bring about such an occurrence, just as 🇺🇦 was for 🇷🇺

1. @stephendziedzic via @abcnews
Creates a fake setback for 🇨🇳

🇫🇯 PM "has delivered a blow to 🇨🇳 security ambitions in the Pacific"

⚠️ 🚨 😲

The PM said 🇨🇳 bases aren't welcome but

abc.net.au/news/2025-07-0… 2. "also stressed he doesn't believe that 🇨🇳 is actively looking for such a security foothold in the Pacific"

So if 🇨🇳 isn't looking for a military bases in the Pacific, how does 🇫🇯 not supporting 🇨🇳 having bases equate to a "blow"?

In an admittedly quick search, I can't

1. Why I am 🏃‍♂️ reason #2

#AUKUS

AKA as the 'worst deal of the century', it is a symptom of everything wrong with 🇦🇺 defence policy

An anachronism to times past

A wealth transfer to the Military Industrial Complex

A loss of sovereignty

It's got to be stopped #auspol ✋️ 2. As both a retired Army officer & soil scientist, I am far more concerned about the state of our environment than any credible military threat 🇦🇺 faces.

1. @TheLyonsDen end of year geopolitical review 👇

Some Q's, some comments, and some curious omissions

abc.net.au/news/2024-12-3… 2. Lyons:

Hamas killed 1,200 people on October 7 (stated twice)

But did they John?

Even @abcnews has covered the widespread allegations that many of the victims on that day were killed by 🇮🇱 👇

Why state as fact something that is clearly not certain?

abc.net.au/news/2024-09-0…

I'm confused

Didn't we fight a 20 year '🌎 War on Terror' against al Qaeda, Islamic State, Al Nusra & their off shoots, including HTS?

🇦🇺 even has a clasp for the Active Service Medal for the 'International Coalition Against Terror' 2. A war on terror that resulted in millions of deaths, tens of millions displaced - creating ongoing refugee crises, & multiple countries ruined

Now we are seeing a secular sovereign state 🇸🇾 being over run by a well trained & equipped terrorist organisation/s

1. Jon Anderson, via @johnmenadue, suggests that 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 being provoked by NATO expansion doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

I would suggest that his reasoning doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

johnmenadue.com/?p=406247 2. Anderson's rebuttal of a recent Eugene Doyle piece 👇 is replete with omissions, inaccuracies & spurious arguments.

It deserves a complete rebuttal, but I will just cover a few.

johnmenadue.com/?p=405544

1. An amazing experience!

I have just returned from a week in 🇨🇳 visiting Lanzhou (Gansu Province) and Yangling (Shaanxi Province)

Link👇explains what the trip was about

This🧵describes my, admittedly anecdotal, observations

linkedin.com/pulse/some-ref… 2. Infrastructure.

The scale and general quality of the infrastructure was quite incredible.

Whether that be roads, urban development, airports and rail, there has, and continues to be a huge investment in infrastructure of all kinds, that is quite remarkable.

1. #auspol's Senate (& @abcnews) appears to have lost its mind

The question for me always comes back to in whose interests are they governing

It is hard to see how the answer, as 👇 suggests, is the 🇦🇺 people

What benefit do we gain from this motion?

abc.net.au/news/2024-08-2… 2. The motion that stated that UN Resolution 2758 of 25 Oct 1971 does not establish the 🇨🇳 sovereignty over 🇹🇼 and does not determine the future status of 🇹🇼 in the United Nations, nor Taiwanese participation in UN agencies or international organizations

1. Security 'from' Asia it is apparently.

At least according to this @ASPI_org 'senior analyst'

"🇲🇾 foreign policy tilt under Anwar naturally raises questions about its long-term value as a bilateral and multilateral security partner to 🇦🇺"

https://x.com/ASPI_org/status/1821461344522276894?t=EaLooIVbqYs8IXa-DjoQTA&s=19

2. "Anwar has recast 🇲🇾 non-aligned, hedged foreign policy with his repeated embrace of neutrality as his preferred setting for 🇲🇾"

What is wrong with that?

Anwar's "visceral reactions to the 🇮🇱 –Hamas conflict"

Visceral - a normal response to a genocide I would suggest

1. Two @abcnews articles on the "cost of living" crisis.

What is the 🐘 in the room missing?

🤔

Energy. Or more specifically surplus energy


abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0…
abc.net.au/news/2024-08-0… 2. The energy cost of energy is gradually but relentlessly rising

Hence Dr Tim Morgan's assessment that:

"the prosperity of the 🌎 average person has already stopped growing"

The trend will/can only get worse over time.

surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/

1. Some excerpts from Putin's lengthy address. The address mostly focused on domestic issues but in the context of the SMO.

"What can I say, indeed, Russophobia, like other ideology of racism, national superiority and exclusivity, blinds and deprives one of reason" 2. "We ... will continue to create efficient and secure logistics corridors and build a new global financial architecture, free from political interference, on an advanced technological basis"

The West "they are sawing off the branch on which they have been sitting for decades"

Sent 👇 as an email to my local #auspol MP this morning.

Subj: 🇦🇺: Complicity in Breaching International Law

I am writing to express my deepest concerns over 🇦🇺's involvement in supporting the recent attacks by the 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 against the Houthis in 🇾🇪. I express these concerns on multiple levels.

The most direct is 🇦🇺’s complicity in a breach of international law. The United Nations Security Council Resolution did not authorize military action against the Houthis.

1/ Haven't seen much of @WarintheFuture on @abcnews or @smh recently.

Thought they might have ditched him, but alas not.

A critique of his latest 👇

https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1625202023993073669?s=20&t=k1d8VDM53wRPU7HoFpIcOQ

2/ Starting with the headline:

'A year after 🇷🇺 invaded 🇺🇦, Putin is beginning new offensives – and he desperately needs a victory'

Where is the evidence that he is desperate?

🇷🇺 is solid as a rock, hardened by the external pressure. It is methodical not desperate

1/ Dave Sharma's piece for the @LowyInstitute is a prime example of the 'stoned state' that results from the 'inhalation of our own propaganda' as Chas Freeman so eloquently describes it.

All the usual tropes about evil 🇷🇺, none of the context.

https://twitter.com/LowyInstitute/status/1624958461908754434?t=IihKacRUmknV75Yx-v-_5w&s=19

2/ Sharma claims that the 'ultimate outcome remains in the balance'

Highly optimistic if not plain misleading.

🇺🇦 is running out of trained troops, weapons systems and ammunition.

Meanwhile 🇷🇺 is getting stronger as its mobilisation nears completion and its MIC ramps up.

1/ @abcnews reports 🇦🇺 troops deploying to 🇬🇧 to train 🇺🇦 troops. 👇

Let's do some mathematactics

Using Von Der Leyen's figures, 🇺🇦 casualties ~10K KIA/month.

Operation INTERFLEX will train 20K 🇺🇦 'recruits' this year.
abc.net.au/news/2023-01-1… 2/ So a years worth of training will cover just 2 months of 🇺🇦 KIA, even less if we consider wounded.

Does that sound sustainable?

Now if we consider that

a. these poor sods are receiving only a few weeks training to get them 'as "combat ready" as possible'