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Bravos Research Profile picture
@bravosresearch
Jul 24, 2025 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Credit card interest rates have risen very aggressively

They have gone from 14.56% to 21.16% in just 3.5 years

This chart is one for the history books Image

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More from @bravosresearch

Bravos Research Profile picture
Jan 15
The US bond market is beginning to break

Long-term yields are still rising

While short-term yields are falling

History shows this is a MAJOR warning signal

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ 1 of the most fundamental relationships in financial markets is breaking right now.

In the last 1-year, the 30-year Treasury yield has been rising while the 3-month Treasury yield has been falling.

This divergence signals that the monetary policy is breaking. Image
3/ The 3-month yield is effectively set by the US Federal Reserve.

And the 30-year bond yield is primarily influenced by private investors or foreign governments.

These private investors are often called bond vigilantes.

History shows that their actions can work against what the US central bank is trying to achieve.Image
Read 24 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Jan 9
Truck sales are collapsing, but stocks are hitting record highs

The last 3 times this happened were in 2000, 2008, & 2020

All of them saw an economic recession and a major market crash

Is this time different?

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ This chart shows the aggregate economy index.

When we mark the exact peaks and troughs, they line up precisely with the official start and end dates of recessions. Image
3/ On average, the stock market peaks several months before an economic recession begins.

By the time most people feel economic stress, the stock market is usually already far below its highs.

This leads many to think that stocks are perfect forward indicators of the economy. Image
Read 23 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025
Japanese bond yields have just hit 20-year highs

This could trigger a Global Debt Crisis…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ The yield on Japan’s 30-year bond is starting to close in on the yield of the US 30-year bond.

This narrowing gap could be 1 of the most important global macro developments right now.

Many believe the moment these 2 lines cross could be the trigger that sets off the global debt bubble.Image
3/ Japanese yields are spiking to the highest level in 10 years, making this a major shift in Japan's economic system.

Japan is 1 of the most indebted developed nations, carrying roughly $10 trillion in debt.

That makes it a prime candidate to set off a broader global debt crisis.

And this doesn’t stop with Japan.Image
Read 25 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Dec 11, 2025
Every bull market in the past 70 years has been ended by 1 key Macro factor

This should NOT be overlooked

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ Something unusual is happening in the stock market right now.

The total daily volume of options traded on the US stock market just hit $3.5 trillion.

That is roughly equal to the entire value of the Russell 2000, meaning all US small-cap companies combined. Image
3/ This surge in leveraged bets has been building steadily since 2020.

And it marked the beginning of the S&P 500’s melt-up.

First 2x in market size following the pandemic and then 2x yet again since 2022.

When markets deliver returns this high, investor confidence grows just as fast, and investors naturally take on more risk.Image
Read 21 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Dec 9, 2025
Cash on the sidelines has just hit 25% of US GDP

History shows this does NOT end well…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ This chart shows us the share of total US GDP comprised of cash.

Right now, 25% of the economy, or roughly $7.5 trillion, is invested in money market funds.

This is the money sitting on the sidelines.

That’s the highest level since April 2020, before that January 2009 and October 2001.Image
3/ These dates mark 3 of the biggest economic downturns of the last 20 years.

Coinciding with the 3 largest stock market crashes of the last 20 years.

Once these economic and market crashes ended, the sidelined cash got reinvested back in the markets.

Leading to long periods of economic stability and strong financial markets.Image
Read 24 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Dec 2, 2025
The yield curve has now been steepening from an inversion

This has historically been a very reliable recessionary signal

It’s pointing to a MAJOR economic turning point in just 3 months

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ The yield curve has officially begun a countdown that will bring the economy to a major turning point in 3-months.

You see, exactly 1 year ago the yield curve did what we call a steepening.

It came out of one of the longest inversions on record, crossing back above the 0-lineImage
3/ This same pattern showed up in 2020 and was followed by a recession within a year.

It also happened in 2007, 2001, 1989 and even in 1929.

Yet here we are in 2025, a year after the steepening with:

- No NBER-declared recession.
- Stocks near all-time highs.
- Real GDP growth at 2–3%.Image
Read 25 tweets

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