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Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Mar 12

A $2 trillion financial market is suddenly showing signs of stress

The largest private credit firms are now down by more than 30%

What happens next is going to catch a lot of investors off-guard

A thread 🧵

2/ This is what it looks like when a $2 trillion industry collapses in real time.

Together these companies make up 2/3rd of the entire private credit market.

All of them are down more than 30% from their highs.

Blue Owl Capital has permanently halted redemptions on its private credit fund.

3/ Many economists are already comparing this to the lead up to the great financial crisis.

Private credit firms face similar risks as commercial banks.

Investors provide capital to these firms and they loan out this capital with leverage.

Meaning they extend far more in loans than the actual cash investors contributed.

Read 24 tweets

Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Feb 26

The US now spends more money on interest payments than defense.

And this could get worse with 50% of government debt maturing by 2028.

This leaves the US government with only 1 option…

A thread 🧵

2/ In the next 12-months, nearly $10 trillion worth of US government debt is coming due.

That is approximately $830 billion required to be paid back every single month, representing 34% of all outstanding debt.

3/ In fact, over 50% of the entire US government debt will reach maturity by 2028.

That’s almost the size of China's GDP!

Obviously, the government won't actually be paying back this debt, they will be refinancing it.

This is when they borrow new debt specifically to pay back the old debt.

Read 26 tweets

Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Feb 20

Leverage on gold has just hit RECORD levels

This has often preceded major gold crashes

Is this time different?

A thread 🧵

2/ Since the start of 2026, gold has added roughly $4 trillion to its market capitalization.

That’s more than the entire GDP of the UK, flowing into an asset that offers essentially 0 yield.

3/ At the same time, retail investors have been participating aggressively.

The volume of call options to put options on gold has surged to the highest level seen in over 20 years of data.

So, retail investors are going all in on leveraged instruments to bet on a continuation of gold's meteoric rise.

Read 26 tweets

Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Feb 17

The yield curve has now steepened by 150 basis points in 3 years

This has historically marked a MAJOR turning point for the US economy

A thread 🧵

2/ Something quite rare has been happening on the US treasury market.

For more than 2-years, the short-term government bond yields stayed above longer-term yields.

3/ But in July 2025, short-term yields flipped back below longer-term yields.

And has now been diverging away from it over the last 2-months.

This may sound complex, but it’s a well-known phenomenon called yield curve steepening.

Historically, this signal has preceded major turning points for the US economy.

Read 26 tweets

Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Feb 10

This time is NOT different.

A thread 🧵

2/ The National Bureau of Economic Research has 3 specific conditions to define an asset bubble:

- The asset needs to rise by >100% over a 2-year period.

- It needs to outperform the broader market by at least 100% over that same period.

- It needs to deliver a 5-year return of >50%.

3/ Railways in the 1840s, Dow Jones in 1920s, and Japan's stock market in 1980s, all of these melt-ups were officially bubbles.

And in each case the bubble eventually burst, triggering economic downturns, including the Great Depression.

Today, the media consensus is that we are in a tech bubble.

Read 25 tweets

Bravos Research

@bravosresearch

Feb 6

Japan’s $10 TRILLION debt meltdown is about to hit the US

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵

2/ For years, Japan was seen as the epicenter of global sovereign debt risk, but this has now changed.

In just the past few weeks, we’ve seen a major shift, with currency and debt risk moving from Japan to the US.

3/ This is showing up clearly in the US dollar index breaking a structural uptrend that’s been intact since 2011.

The playbook we’ve been outlining for months is now playing out.

And we’re witnessing the most coordinated policy shift since the Plaza Accord of 1985.

Read 26 tweets

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