Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 24 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
What comes after GLP-1RAs make everyone skinny?

What comes after myostatin inhibitors make everyone buff?

One new candidate is:

Safe, cheap, and easily-administered injections that locally remove fat. A new drug that just passed through phase 2 seems to do just that🧵 Image
The new drug is called CBL-514.

It has a counterpart on the market in the form of deoxycholic acid injections—brand name Kybella.

Kybella is FDA-approved, and it works: it helps people to get rid of their double chins. But there's a catch. Image
Kybella, unfortunately, is not all that safe, and though many patients swear by it, there are notable side effects.

This is predictable, since the way Kybella works is through cytolysis: causing cells to die by rupturing them, releasing their contents, causing inflammation. Image
The main thing that makes CBL-514 so much better than Kybella is that instead of the chaotic, damaging cytolysis process that frequently leads to necrosis, ulceration, neuropraxia, and infections...

CBL-514 causes programmed cell death, or apoptosis: it's clean and controlled! Image
The action of CBL-514 seems to be entirely local: no systemic side effects, and no adverse effects beyond what you'd expect from giving people large injections

To be sure, almost everyone in the sample had an injection site side effect like pain or warmth. But they resolved fast Image
Participants were injected with CBL-514 up to four times, in four-week intervals.

They were then followed while being told they had to maintain their weight within a narrow range.

Even with weight maintenance, participants still had considerable fat spot reduction. Image
Hust saying this probably doesn't give you a good idea of what this means.

So, let's look at one of the participants.

This is from Participant B, a 46-year-old woman. At baseline (left), she had severe fat accumulation warranting intervention. Much-improved by visit 7 (right)! Image
With just a handful of injections, someone went from fat to still fat, but far less concerningly fat.

If we look at how that fat loss occurred, you can see that virtually all of it was exactly where the injections happened.

This is not what you expect from typical fat loss.Image
You might be gathering something right about now:

With typical, massive fat loss, you see saggy skin that might even need surgery.

With this, "participants exhibited little or no skin laxity following fat loss".

That's right: targeted weight loss, no skin removal required.
Keep an eye on that, though, because maybe with really large fat loss, we'll still see skin sagging. But at least in typical use, it seems hopeful.

What's more, this might even be usable to help manage saggy skin in a noninvasive way.

CBL-514 helps with cellulite!Image
CBL-514 also has non-cosmetic uses that are being explored.

In fact, the FDA has fast-tracked CBL-514 for clinical use combatting Dercum's disease, a condition where people develop painful fatty bulbs under their skin.

And guess what: for that outcome, it also seems to work. Image
The company behind this product has shown remarkable results in Phase II trials for non-surgical spot fat removal, Dercum's disease, and cellulite, and they're now looking into combining their drug with GLP-1RA therapy.

In that case, it seems to prevent weight rebound! Image
In addition to preventing weight rebound by eliminating rather than depleting fat cells, the company also thinks that its product can be used to contour GLP-1RA weight loss, so as people's weights fall, they lose where they want to:

That means losing more belly and less butt. Image
And the most amazing part of all of this is that this product is a small molecule drug.

It's going to be cheap to manufacture in bulk, so consumers will be able to get all the benefits of liposuction, without scarring, on the cheap.

Expect low, low prices and no shortages. Image
Frankly, I expected all products like this to be trash that had tons of adverse effects in phase 1 trials.

The fact that it's succeeded in so many phase 2s suggests this is a drug that's likely to come out soon, and it could end up being a revolutionary cosmetic enhancer.
So now we have:

1. Ways to lose weight, quickly, safely, and easily (you are here)

2. Ways to maintain and gain muscle, quickly, safely, and easily (coming soon)

3. A way to sculpt the body's fat distribution, quickly, safely, and easily (coming soon)

America will get hotter. Image

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Jul 24
The White House just released a really good executive order on cleaning up America's streets, re-institutionalizing insane people, and ending open air drug abuse and the problems it creates.

Here's a quick overview🧵 Image
The first section is the one I'm most excited for. An alternative name for it could be "Bring Back The Asylums"

It instructs the administration to make it possible to involuntarily commit crazy people again

That crazy hobo pushing a cart full of urine bottles? He's going away! Image
The next section is one that you'll need to familiarize yourself with if you're interested in 'what happens next'.

This was a never achieved goal in Trump-I.

The idea is to compel cities to do what you want by withholding, barring, and giving discretionary funds for compliance. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jul 23
Pancreatitis is a commonly mention potential side effect of GLP-1RAs, but the evidence for it is poor.

In trials, it doesn't tend to show up more often than in placebo groups, and in high-quality comparisons, risk typically isn't notably elevated.

Risk might even be reduced! Image
There's generally bupkes for pancreatic cancer risk and the evidence for increased pancreatitis risk is similarly poor.

Here's a summary of evidence from before the study whose result I plotted up there: Image
Remember this trial?

It used very high doses of semaglutide and still failed to find any elevation of pancreatitis risk:
Read 8 tweets
Jul 22
Many Founding Fathers wrote under pseudonyms

Pseudonyms afforded the protection needed to write things that were controversial, to engender debate over things they didn't themselves believe in, and to encourage focus on ideas over reputations

Thread of their known pseudonyms🧵 Image
Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay all wrote under the name Publius, after the Roman consul Publius Valerius Poplicola.

This shared authorship became known after Hamilton died, but the individual authors of the Federalist Papers Publius entries remain debated. Image
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John Jay and John Stevens, Jr. shared the Americanus pseudonym when writing various Federalist essays. Image
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Read 20 tweets
Jul 22
One of my favorite papers in recent years included this diagram.

It shows the impact of controlling for three different types of variables: confounders, colliders, and mediators.

With confounders, control is good. With the others, you ruin your result by controlling. Image
If you have variables with measurement error, you can run into another problematic variable: the proxy.

Proxy variables can make all of these distortions much worse and much more difficult to deal with. Image
The paper makes this simple observation: statistical control requires causal justification. That's actually the title.

They gave several DAG-based examples. Consider this one: is edutainment a confounder or a mediator? Should you control for it, or would that bias your estimate? Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
It's so good to see more gene therapies getting worked on.

This one is particularly amazing because it's effectively a one-shot, permanent Exenatide—making humans produce a version of the compound in Gila monster venom like lifelong Ozempic!

But is it safe?

Probably! Short🧵 Image
In the picture I posted above, you can see the effects of having variants that increase the effect of the gene GLP1R.

This was relevant when I was discussing compositional effects of GLP-1RAs. As you can see, bodyfat *percentage* declines with higher natural GLP-1R agonism.
I went ahead and checked the effects of the same SNPs and an extended set of SNPs on the effects of GLP1R on colorectal cancer risk.

It seemed to reduce it (pic is an excerpt from one of my subscriber-only posts). Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 12
This is not true, but remember:

Premodern society was hyper-violent by modern standards.

Almost half the fighting-aged males in late Neolithic Europe showed skeletal evidence of violence and at least 10% died from it.

For comparison, the 2022 U.S. homicide rate was 7.5/100k. Image
This isn't even the most violent prehistoric society, it's one of the more peaceful ones known. Image
Communist states have killed a lot of people historically, but they had nothing on non-state societies.

I cannot recommend trying out any sort of statelessness, let alone communism.

Image
Read 4 tweets

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