Thread by @SanderRegter

1/12
How is it going with ruzzia? Are they winning or loosing or maby they are loosing from theirselfes??

Their figures: you can find them here.
interfax.com/newsroom/top-s…

2/12
But i took the liberty and put their figures in chat GPT and asked to produce sone graphics for me, so here it comes...

3/12
📊 Russia Budget Data, H1 2025
Figure Value (trillion RUB) Percentage of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

4/12
Next one up...

Oil extraction & gas revenues: 4.735 trillion RUB (-16.9%) 😃

5/12
Dont you love it? Budgetted VS real 😂

Budgeted deficit vs. actual deficit
Deficit (trillion RUB)

Jan-May H1 Total Budgeted
Left: Deficit up to and including May (3.393)
Middle: Actual H1 deficit (3.694)
Right: Originally budgeted for 2025 (3.792)

6/12
This visually shows that the deficit in the first half of the year is almost equal to what was originally budgeted for the entire year.

7/12
Interpretation & Context
The total deficit in H1 (3.694 trillion RUB) corresponds to 1.7% of estimated annual GDP, exactly the same as the new estimate after the spring revisions.

8/12
In May, the deficit was still at 1.5% of GDP (3.393 trillion RUB), so between May and June it rose further to the level of 1.7%.

9/12
The cause is largely due to sharply accelerated spending in January (pre-financing of contracts) combined with a sharp decline in oil and gas revenues (-17% y-o-y).

10/12
Summary
The deficit after six months is almost equal to the full-year target—signaling severe fiscal pressure.

The mismatch between the limited revenue growth (+2.8%) and the expenditure growth (+20.2%) largely explains this gap.

11/12
If spending does not slow down or revenue does not increase, Russia will have to borrow or use reserves to cover the year.

12/12
I would say, they are a bunch of loosers

@threadreaderapp please unroll