Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 24 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The White House just released a really good executive order on cleaning up America's streets, re-institutionalizing insane people, and ending open air drug abuse and the problems it creates.

Here's a quick overview🧵 Image
The first section is the one I'm most excited for. An alternative name for it could be "Bring Back The Asylums"

It instructs the administration to make it possible to involuntarily commit crazy people again

That crazy hobo pushing a cart full of urine bottles? He's going away! Image
The next section is one that you'll need to familiarize yourself with if you're interested in 'what happens next'.

This was a never achieved goal in Trump-I.

The idea is to compel cities to do what you want by withholding, barring, and giving discretionary funds for compliance. Image
So, for example, one idea that has made its way through the whisper networks is to compel cities to adopt housing plans and to build more homes by taking away all possible federal funds if they don't

Upzone? Here, have money

Stagnate? No soup for you

Downzone? Fighting words
This will be the first attempt at actually making this happen.

The grantees who will be preferred by this program will be those that

Don't let people use drugs in public, don't let hobos set up tents and mill about, don't let people squat in homes that aren't theirs... Image
Preferred grantees will be those who try to lock up insane hobos, and

Actually comply with using sex offender registries.

You might not have known, but a lot of hobos are sex offenders with criminal histories. You won't find their 'address' listed though, since they lack one. Image
This section also instructs the AG to make federal criminals subject to evaluation as sex pests who can be involuntarily committed

It also says to start doing things to stop the catch-and-release game that's played with crazy people, where they're let out due to 'lack of space' Image
The next section cuts off the infinite spigot of pointless funding for so-called "harm reduction" programs that keep people using drugs 'safely' instead of seeking real treatment

This section also funds assistance for commitment, comprehensive services, and crisis interventions Image
You might ask yourself:

Where's the court capacity to do all of this?

Not a worry: The EO funds the expansion of drug and mental health courts. Image
The last section begins by calling for an end to "Housing First" programs.

These are programs that seek to get homeless people into homes prior to getting them into treatment for their mental health and drug abuse issues.

They often lead to wasted public funds.Image
A recurring theme in all this is that the administration wants homelessness programs to be more effective.

For too long now, programs have failed to push people into treatment. But now that's required. Image
The Order also calls for prosecuting people who run programs that facilitate drug use.

This admin wants a cold turkey stop to drug use, no more excuses and partial-measures that don't resolve the issue. They want people to toughen up and end soft approaches. Image
The final part of the order demands recipients of grants for homelessness provide data where requested to make programs work better.

And this part, which shouldn't need to be said: stop sex offenders from being housed with unrelated children.Image
This Order is bound to make a lot of people upset

People have terrible theories about homelessness that signal all sorts of perverse psychodrama and mandate programs fail in predictable ways

The administration is saying 'no more'

Good!

Bring back asylums, end public disorder
If you want to read the Order, you can here: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Jul 26
I don't think people realize just how wacky things have gotten.

First: The White TFR is ~1.55 and the Black TFR is ~1.53.

Second: Even the stereotypically extreme Hispanic TFR is now below-replacement, at ~1.98. Image
It's hard to overstate just how much things do not stay the same.

It's not even just in the U.S. where fertility rates are now shocking.

This graph shows Saudi Arabia. They're Muslims, so they must be having kids, right? No, they're barely above-replacement.Image
Even the Mormons aren't having kids!

In fact, we're approaching a decade of Utahan fertility being below-replacement! Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 24
What comes after GLP-1RAs make everyone skinny?

What comes after myostatin inhibitors make everyone buff?

One new candidate is:

Safe, cheap, and easily-administered injections that locally remove fat. A new drug that just passed through phase 2 seems to do just that🧵 Image
The new drug is called CBL-514.

It has a counterpart on the market in the form of deoxycholic acid injections—brand name Kybella.

Kybella is FDA-approved, and it works: it helps people to get rid of their double chins. But there's a catch. Image
Kybella, unfortunately, is not all that safe, and though many patients swear by it, there are notable side effects.

This is predictable, since the way Kybella works is through cytolysis: causing cells to die by rupturing them, releasing their contents, causing inflammation. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 23
Pancreatitis is a commonly mention potential side effect of GLP-1RAs, but the evidence for it is poor.

In trials, it doesn't tend to show up more often than in placebo groups, and in high-quality comparisons, risk typically isn't notably elevated.

Risk might even be reduced! Image
There's generally bupkes for pancreatic cancer risk and the evidence for increased pancreatitis risk is similarly poor.

Here's a summary of evidence from before the study whose result I plotted up there: Image
Remember this trial?

It used very high doses of semaglutide and still failed to find any elevation of pancreatitis risk:
Read 8 tweets
Jul 22
Many Founding Fathers wrote under pseudonyms

Pseudonyms afforded the protection needed to write things that were controversial, to engender debate over things they didn't themselves believe in, and to encourage focus on ideas over reputations

Thread of their known pseudonyms🧵 Image
Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay all wrote under the name Publius, after the Roman consul Publius Valerius Poplicola.

This shared authorship became known after Hamilton died, but the individual authors of the Federalist Papers Publius entries remain debated. Image
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John Jay and John Stevens, Jr. shared the Americanus pseudonym when writing various Federalist essays. Image
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Read 20 tweets
Jul 22
One of my favorite papers in recent years included this diagram.

It shows the impact of controlling for three different types of variables: confounders, colliders, and mediators.

With confounders, control is good. With the others, you ruin your result by controlling. Image
If you have variables with measurement error, you can run into another problematic variable: the proxy.

Proxy variables can make all of these distortions much worse and much more difficult to deal with. Image
The paper makes this simple observation: statistical control requires causal justification. That's actually the title.

They gave several DAG-based examples. Consider this one: is edutainment a confounder or a mediator? Should you control for it, or would that bias your estimate? Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
It's so good to see more gene therapies getting worked on.

This one is particularly amazing because it's effectively a one-shot, permanent Exenatide—making humans produce a version of the compound in Gila monster venom like lifelong Ozempic!

But is it safe?

Probably! Short🧵 Image
In the picture I posted above, you can see the effects of having variants that increase the effect of the gene GLP1R.

This was relevant when I was discussing compositional effects of GLP-1RAs. As you can see, bodyfat *percentage* declines with higher natural GLP-1R agonism.
I went ahead and checked the effects of the same SNPs and an extended set of SNPs on the effects of GLP1R on colorectal cancer risk.

It seemed to reduce it (pic is an excerpt from one of my subscriber-only posts). Image
Read 9 tweets

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