Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 24 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The White House just released a really good executive order on cleaning up America's streets, re-institutionalizing insane people, and ending open air drug abuse and the problems it creates.

Here's a quick overview🧵 Image
The first section is the one I'm most excited for. An alternative name for it could be "Bring Back The Asylums"

It instructs the administration to make it possible to involuntarily commit crazy people again

That crazy hobo pushing a cart full of urine bottles? He's going away! Image
The next section is one that you'll need to familiarize yourself with if you're interested in 'what happens next'.

This was a never achieved goal in Trump-I.

The idea is to compel cities to do what you want by withholding, barring, and giving discretionary funds for compliance. Image
So, for example, one idea that has made its way through the whisper networks is to compel cities to adopt housing plans and to build more homes by taking away all possible federal funds if they don't

Upzone? Here, have money

Stagnate? No soup for you

Downzone? Fighting words
This will be the first attempt at actually making this happen.

The grantees who will be preferred by this program will be those that

Don't let people use drugs in public, don't let hobos set up tents and mill about, don't let people squat in homes that aren't theirs... Image
Preferred grantees will be those who try to lock up insane hobos, and

Actually comply with using sex offender registries.

You might not have known, but a lot of hobos are sex offenders with criminal histories. You won't find their 'address' listed though, since they lack one. Image
This section also instructs the AG to make federal criminals subject to evaluation as sex pests who can be involuntarily committed

It also says to start doing things to stop the catch-and-release game that's played with crazy people, where they're let out due to 'lack of space' Image
The next section cuts off the infinite spigot of pointless funding for so-called "harm reduction" programs that keep people using drugs 'safely' instead of seeking real treatment

This section also funds assistance for commitment, comprehensive services, and crisis interventions Image
You might ask yourself:

Where's the court capacity to do all of this?

Not a worry: The EO funds the expansion of drug and mental health courts. Image
The last section begins by calling for an end to "Housing First" programs.

These are programs that seek to get homeless people into homes prior to getting them into treatment for their mental health and drug abuse issues.

They often lead to wasted public funds.Image
A recurring theme in all this is that the administration wants homelessness programs to be more effective.

For too long now, programs have failed to push people into treatment. But now that's required. Image
The Order also calls for prosecuting people who run programs that facilitate drug use.

This admin wants a cold turkey stop to drug use, no more excuses and partial-measures that don't resolve the issue. They want people to toughen up and end soft approaches. Image
The final part of the order demands recipients of grants for homelessness provide data where requested to make programs work better.

And this part, which shouldn't need to be said: stop sex offenders from being housed with unrelated children.Image
This Order is bound to make a lot of people upset

People have terrible theories about homelessness that signal all sorts of perverse psychodrama and mandate programs fail in predictable ways

The administration is saying 'no more'

Good!

Bring back asylums, end public disorder
If you want to read the Order, you can here: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Oct 7
What predicts a successful educational intervention?

Unfortunately, the answer is not 'methodological propriety'; in fact, it's the opposite🧵

First up: home-made measures, a lack of randomization, and a study being published instead of unpublished predict larger effects. Image
It is *far* easier to cook the books with an in-house measure, and it's far harder for other researchers to evaluate what's going on because they definitionally cannot be familiar with it.

Additionally, smaller studies tend to have larger effects—a hallmark of publication bias! Image
Education, like many fields, clearly has a bias towards significant results.

Notice the extreme excess of results with p-values that are 'just significant'.

The pattern we see above should make you suspect if you realize this is happening. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 6
Across five different large samples, the same pattern emerged:

Trans people tended to have multiple times higher rates of autism. Image
In addition to higher autism rates, when looking at non-autistic trans versus non-trans people, the trans people were consistently shifted towards showing more autistic traits. Image
In two of the available datasets, the autism result replicated across other psychiatric traits.

That is, trans people were also at an elevated risk of ADHD, bipolar disorder, depression, OCD, and schizophrenia, before and after making various adjustments. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6
Across 68,000 meta-analyses including over 700,000 effect size estimates, correcting for publication bias tended to:

- Markedly reduce effect sizes
- Markedly reduce the probability that there is an effect at all

Economics hardest hit: Image
Even this is perhaps too generous.

Recall that correcting for publication bias often produces effects that are still larger than the effects attained in subsequent large-scale replication studies.Image
A great example of this comes from priming studies.

Remember money priming, where simply seeing or handling money made people more selfish and better at business?

Those studies were stricken by publication bias, but preregistered studies totally failed to find a thing. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 5
Neat new article from @Scientific_Bird.

It argues that one of the reasons there was an East Asian growth miracle but not a South Asian one is human capital.

For centuries, South Asia has lagged on average human capital, whereas East Asia has done very well in all our records. Image
It's unsurprising when these things continue today.

We already know based on three separate instrumental variables strategies using quite old datapoints that human capital is causal for growth. That includes these numeracy measures from the distant past.

Image
This makes a lot of sense, too.

Where foreign visitors centuries ago thought China was remarkably equal and literate (both true!), they noticed that India had an elite upper crust accompanied by intense squalor.

Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4
The results are in and 58.3% of the almost 7,500 responses said...

Men tend to get more steps in a day!

Sources say...

Yes. Wherever we have large-scale, representatively sampled data, men tend to get a few more steps in compared to women. Image
Step counts tend to vary by area.

For example, New York—thanks to New York City—has the highest average step count.

Colorado—due in part to its selected active, athletic population—also manages a high step count.

You'll also notice that moderate temps mean more steps. Image
What's up with these location effects? Are they causal?

As it turns out, the answer is partially in the affirmative.

That is, some places actually encourage people to walk more!

How do we know? Simple.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 1
Stats on the homeless population are abysmal.

One-in-two has a disability and/or a traumatic brain injury. One-in-five has psychosis. One-in-ten is schizophrenic. One-in-four is mentally retarded.

These facts have major consequences! Image
As I noted recently, the White House wants to bring back involuntary commitment.

They're probably in the right to call for that, since so many homeless are incapable of taking care of themselves, or at the very least, not hurting others.

Image
This risk can be through no fault of their own.

Some people are mentally downtrodden because of injuries to the head.

Among the homeless, over half have suffered a TBI, compared to 12% of Americans. Just over 20% have a TBI-related disability, compared to about 2% of Americans.
Read 10 tweets

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