Brief Update: Pokrovsk Operational Direction
The Pokrovsk area remains the most active, with over a third of the 174 combat engagements recorded along the frontline in the past 24 hours taking place in this area, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
The Pokrovsk area remains the most active, with over a third of the 174 combat engagements recorded along the frontline in the past 24 hours taking place in this area, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
2/ Russian forces continue pressing to cut the T0515 Pokrovsk – Dobropillia road, particularly around Rodynske and Bilytske. This route, once a logistical route for Ukrainian troops, has seen reduced use due to sustained drone threats
3/ Logistics are only part of the concern. Should Ukrainian forces be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk, a safe passage would be vital to avoid a repeat of Bakhmut, where retreat routes were reduced to narrow corridors exposed to Russian artillery and ATGM fire
4/ The push is led by the elements of Russia’s 51st Army, formerly the 1st Army Corps from the occupied Donetsk oblast. These forces, while not fresh, are still relatively capable, after three years of war
5/ In recent days, Russian forces advanced into Zvirove, a southern suburb of Pokrovsk. As of July 23–24, Ukrainian troops were still conducting clearance operations to remove sabotage groups, which sneaked via gaps in local defenses
6/ As I noted last week, the situation for Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk area is critical. Deep pushes on the flanks, increasing pressure on supply and rotation routes, and infiltration into southern outskirts signal about deteriorating situation, and even operational situation.
7/ That said, I agree with the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate’s assessment: while the situation is difficult, Russian forces are unlikely to meet the Kremlin’s objective of seizing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025.
8/ Still, recent Russian adaptations, particularly improved counter-drone effortsled by the “Rubikon” unit, have eroded one of Ukraine’s key advantages. With drone teams increasingly targeted, Ukrainian lines have grown more porous
9/ Manpower shortages persist, limiting Ukraine’s ability to fully seal gaps in its defenses. Compounding this, Ukrainian reserves are also committed in Sumy and the southeastern sectors, restricting Kyiv’s flexibility to reinforce the Pokrovsk front.
10/ While the situation is far from hopeless, it remains risky if left unaddressed - and will likely require both serious adjustments and resource allocations to shift the balance in the coming weeks.
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