Thread by @Mylovanov

Russia is losing control over post-Soviet states.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan sign deals, push out Russian troops, and cut Moscow from talks, while Putin pulls forces to fight in Ukraine, Jeffrey Mankoff for Foreign Affairs. 1/

In early 2025, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a border deal for the Fergana Valley without Russian mediation.

In March, they met Uzbekistan in Khujand for their first trilateral summit. 2/

In 2023, Azerbaijan reconquered Nagorno-Karabakh. Its troops fired on Russian peacekeepers. Russia stood down.

Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators later agreed on a draft peace treaty with no foreign peacekeepers. 3/

Armenia stopped buying Russian weapons. In 2022–23, it ordered $1.5B in Indian arms. It’s now turning to Western and Indian suppliers.

Gulf states are funding solar and farm projects across the Caucasus. 4/

China’s trade with Central Asia hit $94.8B in 2024, over 2x their trade with Russia. Beijing builds pipelines, rail lines, and ports. China’s paramilitary police now operate in Tajikistan. 5/

Turkish drones are everywhere. All Central Asian states except Tajikistan own Bayraktars. In 2024, Baykar launched a drone factory in Kazakhstan.

Ankara is training, advising, and arming regional militaries. 6/

The Middle Corridor, a rail link from China to Europe via the Caspian, boomed after sanctions hit Russia’s routes.

Chinese container trains on this route jumped 33x from 2023 to 2024. Caspian port freight rose 21%. 7/

Despite the shift, Russia keeps leverage:

- Migrant remittances,
- Rosatom’s nuclear plant in Kazakhstan,
- Transit deals via Iran & Azerbaijan.

But it’s losing monopoly control. 8/

Putin wants suzerainty. The region wants options.

Every drone sale, rail link, and pipeline helps states resist Russian pull. 9X

Source: foreignaffairs.com/russia/russia-…