1⃣One week from now, Trump’s 50% tariffs on Brazil are set to take effect—marking the deepest crisis in decades in the relationship between the Western Hemisphere’s two largest nations. A few thoughts: 🧵
2⃣Past trade talks Trump and other countries offer limited guidance this time. The rationale behind the Brazil tariffs not only economic, but also political—making this a different kind of standoff altogether.
3⃣Trump’s tariffs are a textbook case of autocracy promotion: he’s punishing Brazil for prosecuting a former strongman who tried to cling to power illegally.
4⃣Trump and Bolsonaro have much in common: both attacked electoral legitimacy, lost reelection, refused to concede, and their supporters stormed government buildings to complicate the transition of power.
5⃣Trump sees Lula’s government and Brazil’s judiciary as one monolithic enemy of Bolsonaro. But Lula doesn’t control the courts—so Trump’s demands to drop charges against Bolsonaro are dead on arrival and not up for negotiation.
6⃣Regardless of what’s negotiated this week, the next flashpoint is likely just months away—when Bolsonaro is expected to be convicted and imprisoned for his role in the alleged coup attempt.
7⃣That means any temporary deal struck now could collapse quickly. All of this is toxic for investors and damaging to U.S.-Brazil trade relations.
8⃣Given how limited the dialogue between both governments is, Brazil’s best chance is pressure from U.S. companies that rely on Brazilian exports—orange juice, steel, coffee, cement—urging Trump to back down.
9⃣One thing bears repeating: even if a deal emerges, Washington's influence in Brazil will take a hit and Brazilian attempts to hedge and diversify away from the US will accelerate. China, meanwhile, just has to sit back and watch it all unfold.
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