Frontelligence Insight estimates that by the end of June 2025, Russian combat fatalities may have reached, or even surpassed, 250,000. The projection is based on a synthetic estimation model that extrapolates from regionally confirmed, by-name casualty records.
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2/ The team drew on confirmed casualty data compiled by Idel.Realities and Baikal Stories, tallying losses by region of origin and comparing them to each region’s working-age male population (defined as ages 16 to 60). The analysis covered 17 Russian regions.
3/ For example, in Buryatia, as of mid-June 2025, 2,924 service members killed in action had been confirmed by name. Official data puts the region’s male population at around 455,000, with ~284,800 (about 62.6%) aged 16 to 60. That gives a 1.03% KIA rate among working-age men
4/ Taking the average of these regional percentages gives roughly 0.6–0.7%
If one applies this loss rate to the estimated total working-age male population of Russia (on the order of ~40 million men aged 16–60), the implied total KIA would be on the order of 250,000–300,000 men
If one applies this loss rate to the estimated total working-age male population of Russia (on the order of ~40 million men aged 16–60), the implied total KIA would be on the order of 250,000–300,000 men
5/ These figures reflect only confirmed regional KIA, while many deaths go unreported or unclaimed. Furthermore, regional contributions to the front vary sharply - poorer, rural areas like Tuva have sent far more men than wealthier centers such as Moscow.
6/ The analysis draws from 17 of Russia’s 85 federal subjects, each with own demographics, and is not intended as definitive. Still, while the extrapolated total isn’t a precise measure, it likely falls within a reasonable range. A major deviation (like factor of 2) is unlikely
7/ For comparison, the U.K. MoD estimated in March 2025 that Russian forces had suffered 200,000 to 250,000 killed since the full-scale invasion began. As of July, Mediazona had confirmed 119,154 deaths by name, with a broader estimate of 165,000 based on probate records.
8/ In February 2025, Mediazona and Meduza estimated Russia’s total military deaths since the full-scale invasion at 165,000, combining confirmed KIA cases with statistical analysis. By July, preliminary figures suggested an additional 50,000 losses, bringing the toll to over 200k
9/ Interestingly, in the Afghan War, where the Soviet Union lost around 15,000 soldiers, Irkutsk Oblast lost 33. In the current invasion of Ukraine, that number is 2,978. While this can't be used for conclusions, it offers an intuitive sense of the loss scale.
10/ We plan to refine our estimates and expand the analysis to include more regions in the future, though that work will take time. If you found this useful, consider liking and sharing the lead post in the thread to support our work
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