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Rahul Mathur Profile picture
@Rahul_J_Mathur
Jul 26 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
“Don't expect quick commerce to slow down - a conservative estimate is that this will be a ₹3 Lakh crore market by 2030”

These words were spoken by Vipul Parekh, Co-Founder of bigbasket

This is the same bigbasket which was initially dismissed quick commerce; recently they have been forced to do a complete U-turn ⤵️
First, let us look at bigbasket’s journey with QC:

In 2023, while QC really started to take off in India, bigbasket stuck to its orignal scheduled delivery model.

But, they launched BBNow (12 minute delivery)

In Feb 2024, bigbasket responded by launching “Supersaver” across 40 cities which provided delivery within 2 hours.

Hari Menon, the other co-founder of bigbasket said: “We have moved the delivery service from being van-based to bike-based”

At this point in Feb ‘24, scheduled deliveries were still 65% of the annual business.

But, this was set to change:
In Aug 2024, bigbasket announced a major shift - they were going ALL in on Quick Comm - BBNow.

They said: “We're not eliminating slotted delivery, but making quick commerce the default option.”

QC was already 50% of the overall volume 🤯

And, the penny dropped in Feb 2025: Management confirmed that 80% of bigbasket revenue comes from Quick Commerce (!!)🤯🤯

However, this hasn’t flowed into top line numbers as yet
bigbasket’s B2C revenue has been flat for the past 2 yrs:

FY 23 = ₹7,400 crore
FY 24 = ₹7,884 crore
FY 25 = ₹7,673 crore

There are a few reasons for this:

(a) Complete change in operating model; schedule delivers has a very different logistics model versus quick commerce

(b) Intense competition in Quick Comm: This was peak burn period for Zepto, Instamart & Blinkit

(c) Ramping down of certain units e.g. BB Instant - their vending machine business

Btw, I had shared a detailed noted on BB Instant over a year ago - do bookmark the below & return to this thread:

x.com/Rahul_J_Mathur…
And, bigbasket isn’t alone - even Reliance Retail has re-started Quick Commerce

(1) They shut down their 1st attempt in 2023 which was called JioMart Express i.e. 90 minute delivery

(2) The re-started in June 2024 with a 30 minute delivery option

(3) In March 2025, they announced a full pivot to 10-15 minute deliveries

(4) In July 2025 - even Ajio (owned by Reliance Retail) launched a 4-hour quick fashion delivery

RIL also confirmed that it won’t acquire any QC players, it will build its QC capabilities in-house
The message is crystal clear - Quick Commerce is here to stay & will continue to ate market share from all other forms of Commerce.

Every incumbent has woken up to the reality which Jeff Bezos had stated many years ago - “customers want more selection, lower prices, and faster delivery”

Oddly enough, Amazon is the latest to Quick Commerce in India with Amazon Now (2025).

However, I personally believe the winners in this category have already been decided 🙂

Discl: Views are my own. Shared for informational purposes only. DYOR. I am a shareholder of Eternal. Family & affiliates own shares of Swiggy & various listed Tata Group companies.

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More from @Rahul_J_Mathur

Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 22
Maggi is available at 52 Lakh retail outlets across India - we mix everything from veggies to cheese to eggs to make our "2 Minute Noodles"

It is served at weddings, in Manali, at dhabas outside offices & even on 15-min food delivery apps.

Therefore, Maggi’s owner Nestlé launched a franchise business called ‘Retail One Kiosk’ - the 1000th kiosk was opened this month ⤵️
First, let us cover what products Nestlé sells in India:

(1) Snack food : Maggi noodles & soups
(2) Condiments: Maggi magic cube, Maggi ketchup
(3) Chocolates: KitKat, Munch, Milkybar
(4) Coffee: Nescafé Classic, Gold & Sunrise
(5) Beverages: Milo, Nestea
(6) Milk based products: Milkmaid, Everyday

Nestlé ignited India’s coffee craze by launching instant coffee powder in 1963. Btw, my grandmother refuses to have any coffee apart from Nescafé - it has some die hard fans!

Nestlé has a huge portfolio in India - many of these products are consumed by millions daily.

Which brings us to:Image
How has Nestlé performed in India so far?

The company listed in 1962 - and even today the foreign parent Nestlé SA owns ~63% of the company.

It generated ₹5,000 crore of Sales for the March ‘25 quarter.

If you’ve held the stock for 15+ years now - you would have generate an impressive 17% CAGR - beating the index hands down.

But, Nestle’s performance in the last 5 years hasn’t been as great - the share price is up ~43%.

There are several reasons for this which we will cover later; but for now - let’s come back to ground reality:Image
Read 8 tweets
Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 19
The COO of OpenAI said: “You require an incredible level of (human) agency to extract the maximum value from AI.”

In a pre-AI world, the being the “idea guy” wasn’t valuable because action was expensive

In a post-AI world, being the “idea guy” becomes valuable because a lot of action can be offloaded to systems

There are 3 skills which are becoming more prized in our post-AI world ⤵️
OpenAI’s Chief Economist summarizes this incredibly well: “We need people to identify problems - this takes agency. But, it must be combined with the ability to target the right problem & figure out how to activate the systems to work on their behalf”

The 3 skills which are valuable are:
(1) Agency

Initiative is the bottleneck in a post-AI world. The OpenAI Codex team articulates this as “abundance mindset” - if you don’t take action, the AI & human agents at your disposal won’t either.

(2) Pattern recognition

Since AI is lowering execution cost, it raises the premium on discernment. Knowing *what* to do and *why becomes more important.*

People who can articulate clear goals, course correct & assess outcomes will be more valuable.

(3) EQ

Since ‘systems’ will involve AI & human agents, having soft skills (empathy, judgment, and communication skill) lets you direct human agents who in-turn control a larger force of AI agents.
Read 4 tweets
Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 17
In 2023, Parth Jindal bought a 35% stake in MG Motor India which had < 1.25% market share

In one year, MG’s Windsor EV became India’s best selling EV - with 20,000 units sold in FY25.

Now, he’s buying out his JV partner to control 86% of MG Motors India.

35 year old Harvard grad, Parth is quickly emerging as the new king dealmaker in India ⤵️
Parth Jindal has been super active in the past 12 months:

(1) JSW Cements IPO roadshow - the company is expected to raise ₹4,000 crore

(2) JSW Paints acquisition of Akzo Nobel (owner of Dulux); JSW will pay ₹9,000 crore for a 74% stake

(3) Via JSW Sports, anchored a VC fund called Centre Court Capital and began building a new Bengaluru FC stadium.

Note: These are JSW entities where he is leading the show, as a Jindal family member, he also has an indirect role to play in other group entities like JSW Defense, Infra etc

What is the secret to making these deals? Parth is focused on relationships:
Let us take the example of the JSW Paints acquisition of Akzo Nobel:

JSW was the highest bidder but there was a last-minute 7-8% higher counter-offer for the entire business from Advent International…

What did Parth do? He flew directly to meet the Akzo Nobel top brass. His family also hosted the Akzo Nobel global CEO in their home.

Whatever Parth did worked - because the CEO of Akzo Nobel said: “Finding the right home for the business and having the right long-term partner is also invaluable”

And, words were followed by action on BOTH sides:

AkzoNobel will relinquish the 3.5% royalty to free up an additional ₹80 crore a year for marketing

Parth has pledged to add another ₹100 crore to boost the marketing budget.

He said: "We will compete with the no. 1 player (Asian Paints) and whoever comes up against it (Birla Opus)"Image
Read 6 tweets
Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 16
Last month, BYD sold 500 units in India - which is ~0.1% of its global sales (3.8 Lakh units)

With a 5 minute charge, the newest BYDs in China offer 500+ km range - this is almost x50 faster than the time it takes for my 2022 MG ZS to charge up for the same range!!

Wang Chuanfu, Chairman of BYD said: “Our goal is to make charging as fast as refueling petrol cars.”

There is a reason why Buffett bought 9.99% of this company and has made 15x return on BYD ⤵️
Every journey begins with the founder:

Wang Chuanfu, BYD Chairman, grew up as an orphan. He studied chemical engineering and started working in 1990 - he became a GM at a local battery company in 1993.

He took a loan of ~$2.500 in 1995 from his cousin to start the BYD - Build Your Dreams - battery company

The late Charlie Munger described Wang Chuanfu as “a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch”

Wang is worth $30bn today - but he isn’t the typical billionaire:

(a) He drives himself around
(b) Works 70+ hours per week
(c) Shows up on the factory floor in the BYD employee outfit
(d) Stays walking distance from the factory

An early BYD investor said: “His life is all about BYD; nothing else. This guy is cheap - he’s saving money (all the time) for you (the shareholder / customer).”

Founder obsession → company succession:Image
About BYD 🔋

Today, BYD has a MCap of ~$135bn and employs 9 Lakh people

BYD was initially a battery manufacturer, it entered the automobile manufacturing business in 2003 when it acquired Xi’an Qinchuan Automobile; its first EV was the e6 launched in 2009

Berkshire Hathway bought 9.99% of BYD for ~$230M in 2008 - it is widely believed that Wang drank some of the battery fluid during an investor meeting to show how safe it was 😂

The company’s vehicle output has skyrocketed from 5 Lakh vehicles in 2017 to 40 Lakh vehicles in 2024

BYD is all about efficiency: Their 1st overseas plant (Thailand) went from groundbreaking to operations (1.5 Lakh units per year) in ≤ 16 monthsImage
Read 7 tweets
Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 11
Zomato has re-entered the credit card business with 2 new partners: HDFC Bank and Tata Neu

Zomato had a previous unsuccessful partnership with RBL Bank which lasted 3 years.

You can now get a 10% cashback on Zomato orders via the HDFC Tata Neu credit cards!

There is SO much to unpack here: HDFC Bank has taken ICICI Bank had on, it now powers 10% discounts for both Zomato & Swiggy ⤵️
Zomato’s previous credit card 💳

March 20: Launched two variants Classic (5% cashback) and Black (10% cashback); powered by RBL Bank

Doomed to fail, there were no caps on spending… cards were nerfed in Sept ‘22 and in April ‘23, the co-brand partnership ended…

Swiggy, on the other hand, learned all the right lessons - capped cashback at ₹1.5K per month from Swiggy spends and a few more which are detailed below (bookmark & revisit):

x.com/Rahul_J_Mathur…
The ‘neu’ 10% cashback with Tata & HDFC

HDFC & Tata Neu have 2 credit cards:
(1) Neu Infinity - 10% Zomato cashback
(2) Neu Plus - 5% Zomato cashback

Now, you can read everything on the website - I want to draw your attention to some of the fine print:

(a) Sometimes you won’t see the discount auto-applied, you would have to use the code NEUCARD5 or NEUCARD10

(b) Like the Swiggy card, there is a spending cap per month for F&B:
₹8K per month for Infinity
₹3.5K per month for Plus

The discounts are slightly nerfed (in my opinion) compared to the Swiggy HDFC card (check end of the thread for details of the same)Image
Read 7 tweets
Rahul Mathur Profile picture
Jul 8
Today, you can buy a 2 carat diamond necklace from True Diamond for ~₹80,000 - this would have cost you over ₹3 lakh just 10 years ago

Lab grown diamonds are indistinguishable from natural diamonds and now, 52% of US engagement rings are LGDs…

But, what about India? And, the impact on our natural diamond industry? ⤵️
The story of diamonds is closed linked with our history:

(1) Golconda (modern day Telangana) was the 1st place where diamonds were discovered in 400 BC

(2) Our artisans produced the 1st diamond engagement ring in 1477 AD for Mary of Burgundy

(3) In the year of our independence 1947, DeBeers launched the legendary "A Diamond is Forever" advertising campaign which changed how we perceive diamonds.

India processes 90% of all natural diamonds used in jewelry; the sector employs 13 lakh people - 9 lakh of whom are based in Surat…

So, when did this LGD story begin?
Remember: We associate diamonds with jewelry, diamonds also have commercial use-cases e.g. cutting

Rewind to 1954 - General Electric (GE) create the 1st ever synthetic diamond as part of “Project Superpressure” - these were too ugly, hence could only be used for industrial use

GE had a clear motive - reduce dependency on natural diamonds

R&D continued, by the 1970s - GE had now started to create synthetic diamonds which were gem grade i.e. could be set in jewelry BUT it was still too expensive.

GE created a process HPHT (High Pressure High Temp) - but by early 2010s, CVD (Chemical Vapour Deposition) was superior for creating jewelry focused LGDs.

And, in 2010, Pure Grown Diamonds (then called Gemesis) launched the jewelry sets with LGD

A LOT has happened since then:
Read 8 tweets

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