In 2023, Parth Jindal bought a 35% stake in MG Motor India which had < 1.25% market share

In one year, MG’s Windsor EV became India’s best selling EV - with 20,000 units sold in FY25.

Now, he’s buying out his JV partner to control 86% of MG Motors India.

35 year old Harvard grad, Parth is quickly emerging as the new king dealmaker in India ⤵️ Parth Jindal has been super active in the past 12 months:

(1) JSW Cements IPO roadshow - the company is expected to raise ₹4,000 crore

(2) JSW Paints acquisition of Akzo Nobel (owner of Dulux); JSW will pay ₹9,000 crore for a 74% stake

(3) Via JSW Sports, anchored a VC fund called Centre Court Capital and began building a new Bengaluru FC stadium.

Note: These are JSW entities where he is leading the show, as a Jindal family member, he also has an indirect role to play in other group entities like JSW Defense, Infra etc

What is the secret to making these deals? Parth is focused on relationships:

Last month, BYD sold 500 units in India - which is ~0.1% of its global sales (3.8 Lakh units)

With a 5 minute charge, the newest BYDs in China offer 500+ km range - this is almost x50 faster than the time it takes for my 2022 MG ZS to charge up for the same range!!

Wang Chuanfu, Chairman of BYD said: “Our goal is to make charging as fast as refueling petrol cars.”

There is a reason why Buffett bought 9.99% of this company and has made 15x return on BYD ⤵️ Every journey begins with the founder:

Wang Chuanfu, BYD Chairman, grew up as an orphan. He studied chemical engineering and started working in 1990 - he became a GM at a local battery company in 1993.

He took a loan of ~$2.500 in 1995 from his cousin to start the BYD - Build Your Dreams - battery company

The late Charlie Munger described Wang Chuanfu as “a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch”

Wang is worth $30bn today - but he isn’t the typical billionaire:

(a) He drives himself around
(b) Works 70+ hours per week
(c) Shows up on the factory floor in the BYD employee outfit
(d) Stays walking distance from the factory

An early BYD investor said: “His life is all about BYD; nothing else. This guy is cheap - he’s saving money (all the time) for you (the shareholder / customer).”

Founder obsession → company succession:

Zomato has re-entered the credit card business with 2 new partners: HDFC Bank and Tata Neu

Zomato had a previous unsuccessful partnership with RBL Bank which lasted 3 years.

You can now get a 10% cashback on Zomato orders via the HDFC Tata Neu credit cards!

There is SO much to unpack here: HDFC Bank has taken ICICI Bank had on, it now powers 10% discounts for both Zomato & Swiggy ⤵️ Zomato’s previous credit card 💳

March 20: Launched two variants Classic (5% cashback) and Black (10% cashback); powered by RBL Bank

Doomed to fail, there were no caps on spending… cards were nerfed in Sept ‘22 and in April ‘23, the co-brand partnership ended…

Swiggy, on the other hand, learned all the right lessons - capped cashback at ₹1.5K per month from Swiggy spends and a few more which are detailed below (bookmark & revisit):

x.com/Rahul_J_Mathur…

Today, you can buy a 2 carat diamond necklace from True Diamond for ~₹80,000 - this would have cost you over ₹3 lakh just 10 years ago

Lab grown diamonds are indistinguishable from natural diamonds and now, 52% of US engagement rings are LGDs…

But, what about India? And, the impact on our natural diamond industry? ⤵️ The story of diamonds is closed linked with our history:

(1) Golconda (modern day Telangana) was the 1st place where diamonds were discovered in 400 BC

(2) Our artisans produced the 1st diamond engagement ring in 1477 AD for Mary of Burgundy

(3) In the year of our independence 1947, DeBeers launched the legendary "A Diamond is Forever" advertising campaign which changed how we perceive diamonds.

India processes 90% of all natural diamonds used in jewelry; the sector employs 13 lakh people - 9 lakh of whom are based in Surat…

So, when did this LGD story begin?

Tata 1mg has 110 offline stores right now - it has plans to grow to 3,000 stores in the next 5 years

Why is India’s leading online pharmacy player going offline in such an aggressive way?

The answer is simple: 95% of India’s ₹2.4 Lakh crore pharmacy market is offline i.e. sales happening at local medical stores.

E-pharmacy might be a graveyard, but omni-channel pharma is the new hot thing ⤵️ Tata 1mg is a turning out to be a turnaround success post the Tata acquisition in 2021:

(1) Pole position: It overtook PharmEasy in Nov 2023 to take 1st position in the e-pharma industry (has ~21% market share)

(2) Offline is working: Revenue in FY25 is expected to be ₹2,500 versus ₹309 crore in FY21; the offline store rollout started post COVID.

(3) Operating efficiency has kicked in: Net loss was ₹1,255 crore in FY21 - it was down to ₹414 crore in FY24

Tata 1mg infact deployed ₹180 Crore in FY25 solely to open new offline stores.

But, omni-channel isn’t just stores - it is also Quick Commerce now:

My AI agent heard ~50 episodes of the No Priors podcast this weekend

I used Aida (a browser AI agent) and ChatGPT Projects to help me synthesize ALL discussions regarding AI.

In total I spent ~7 hours this weekend asking questions, taking notes & thinking about what I was reading.

Sharing my top 5 takeaways below ⤵️ Ep.82: “Agents are the new websites”

“In 1995, existing digitally meant a website. In 2025, it will mean having a branded AI agent.”

Bret Taylor - ex Co-CEO of Salesforce founded Sierra to build branded customer-facing agents for clients.

Bret explains there are 3 types of agents:

(1) Personal Agents – TBD | ChatGPT with memory is slowing getting here!

(2) Persona Agents – for specific verticals e.g. legal and coding tools

(3) Company Agents – Sierra’s domain: digital brand representatives built with LLMs and connected to internal systems

This is an excellent metaphor - if your website is your digital storefront, then an agent is your digital sales rep. CX is 80% sales rep, 20% storefront - hence the agent matters a LOT!

If you hear a lot of podcasts, yes, I know - Bret is a pod hopper - but his words carry weight - there is always a message behind the metaphor.

2 weeks ago, Coatue (~$50bn AUM) shared that AI could capture 75% of US market cap in the next decade

Coatue has deployed $1.5bn into AI (CoreWeave, Norm AI, Hugging Face, Cerebras etc) and is apparently raising another $1bn dedicated AI fund.

Last decade: Software ate the world - every company either uses software or is a software biz.

Now, it is AI’s turn to eat software & the world…

I read Coatue’s 102 page EMW 2025 report - sharing 3x interesting takeaways for both public & private market investors ⤵️ 1⃣History may not repeat - but it sure does rhyme

- Analyst comments on AI CAPEX concerns are the mirror image of their prev. cloud CAPEX concerns

- A new supercycle will come to replace the current SaaS/Cloud one: Historic ones were: Mainframe, PCs, Networking, Desktop Internet, Mobile Internet, SaaS/Cloud - maybe now AI?

- Leaders in MCap will change (like always) → 25% of Top 25 co’s by MCap changes every 5 years 🤯

India’s largest cinema PVR is having a tough time - it lost ₹280 crore in FY25 which is almost x8 what it lost in FY24

Ultimately, the cinema business is ALL about occupancy (i.e. seats filled in the cinema); low occupancy means no F&B sales - which means no revenue!

PVR occupancy is down to 16% in FY25, a sharp decline from the pre-COVID high of 36% in 2019

So, is PVR alone in trouble? Or, is the cinema industry as a whole doomed? ⤵️ In May 2023, ~450 single-screen cinemas in Telangana shut down for a month due to a lack of "good releases"

A typical such cinema was incurring losses of ~₹7,000 daily with ticket + F&B sales of ~₹4,000.

This is odd given that Telugu audiences watch 9 films/year on average compared to national avg of 6.

Btw, PVR itself cited lack of quality releases in Bollywood - so it has re-released 287 films in cinema since the pandemic.

"A bad carpenter blames his tools" is what my grandfather taught me.

He also said: "an entrepreneur spots opportunities":

Bata shoes are “Made In India” today, but Bata was created in the Czech Republic 130+ years ago!

Bata started operations in India 40 years after its founding.

It appointed an Indian as its CEO for the 1st time in 2020 (125 years after founding!).

For many of us who went to school in the 80s, 90s and 2000s - Bata was the shoe brand you HAD to wear. Of course it is an Indian brand, right?

Turns out, not at all. ⤵️ 1️⃣ Bata’s humble beginnings

On 21 September 1894 in the town of Zlín (modern day Czech Republic), Tomáš, Antonín and Anna Baťa put up ~$12,000 (in today’s money) to buy 2 sewing machines and hire 10 workers to launch the Bata Shoe Company.

They quickly pivoted from leather shoes to canvas shoes (the white ones we wore in school in India!)

1914: Turning point was Govt contracts in WW1 - they started to build “Baťaville” factory towns

I’ll skip all the European tragedy & jump straight from Zlín to Calcutta:

ICICI Bank’s former CEO recently launched her own YouTube channel (under the radar with with just 7K subs)

In her most episode, Chanda Kochhar interviewed Deepak Parekh (ex Chairman HDFC) and what he said on her show made me jump off my seat ⤵️ Deepak Parekh: “It's never been talked in public but I'm willing to share it now, (you asked me) why don't you come back home?”

i.e. Chandha Kochhar had proposed a merger between ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd

Important historical context: ICICI served as the “sponsor” to help Hasmukh Thakordas Parekh (HDFC’s founding chairman) secure the license. Exact details of financial help if any, are unknown. But suffices to say - HDFC’s roots were indeed from ICICI.

Hence, Kochhar’s comment “come back home” is very valid

Deepak Parekh clarified: “I thought it won't be fair. It won't be proper with our name (HDFC) and the bank and all…” So, it didn’t happen and later the HDFC Bank <> HDFC merger took place

We (India’s youth) are very different from our parents

They have a savings mindset - gold, real estate, no credit card, home loan etc. Money was saved for tomorrow’s betterment (retirement, children’s education etc).

We have a spending mindset - MFs, many credit cards, fancy sneakers, international travel. Money is spent for today’s experiences & indulgences.

These are anecdotes.

Here’s some data which shows how India’s youth spends money ⤵️ 1️⃣Where are we spending? Hint: 40% on EMIs

Discretionary spending in India is a luxury.

40% of our spends are towards (financial) obligations e.g. home loan, car loan, education loan.

Btw, obligation spending is is HIGHER than necessities - utilities, groceries, medical.

Necessities is ~ 32% of spending. Discretionary comes in at the end with ~29% of spending.

Note: If you can’t relate to the above, consider yourself very privileged.

Jio will be launching 3 Mutual Funds in India shortly which are using Blackrock's ALADDIN model.

ALADDIN literally stands for Asset, Liability, and Debt and Derivative Investment Network

In total, ~200 global institutions use the analytics platform which represents ~₹1,750 lakh crore in AUM.

First time that ALADDIN will be launched in India by any institution: Jio Financial Services got off to a slow start post the spin-out from RIL Industries but it is slowly gathering momentum:

1. Converted to a Core Investment Company from regular NBFC
2. Launched Jio Finance super app
3. Launching Jio Blackrock AMC
4. Launching Jio Blackrock MF

I read the entire 340 page "AI Trends" report by legendary investor Mary Meeker which was released 48 hours ago.

Mary used to publish the famous annual “Internet Trends” before most of us were born - her insights are invaluable.

Sharing 10 takeaways from this report ⤵️ Index for this post

(1) About Mary Meeker
(2) About Bond Capital
(3) Fav Quote from report
(4) India’s AI usage --“Jai Jio”
(5) Innovators Dilemma RIP
(6) ChatGPT use - Engagement Trap
(7) ChatGPT is under attack
(8) AI has low APRU (for now)
(9) Goodbye Vertical SaaS?
(10) Next Billion Users will be AI native?

LIC owns ~4.9% of CSK — a 30X return over a 18 year holding period (>> 20% XIRR) — the story behind this is quite fascinating:

India Cements paid ~₹395 crore (over 10 years) to buy the CSK franchise — it is probably their best capital allocation decision to date: CSK is now worth as much as India Cements 😉

Quick history before we cover how LIC landed up with the stake ⤵️

(1) In Feb ‘08, India Cements offered $91M for CSK — $1 = ₹43.4 then — i.e. ~₹395 crore price

(2) This was to be paid over 10 years (from 2008 to 2017)

(3) MCap (Feb ‘25) of CSK = ₹7,400 crore as per InCred Money unlisted shares feature

👌Works out to >> 20% XIRR*** — beats the Nifty hands down during this period (~13.5% CAGR | even after excluding the ‘08 - ‘09 drawdown) 💡Here’s how LIC got the CSK stake

(a) CSK was originally a division of India Cements

(b) In 2015, India Cements spun CSK out as a separate company

(c) As on 9th Oct ‘15, if you were an India Cements shareholder, you would have got 1:1 CSK shares for our India Cements shareholding

(d) LIC was an India Cements shareholder as on that date w/ ~5% ownership

(e) The shares were warehoused in an entity called India Cements Shareholder Trust

(f) Shares were distributed to India Cements shareholders in FY23

I now have stupid % of cash net worth in Zomato & Swiggy (after the post correction buying) based on my Quick Commerce thesis.

The biggest discussion point with my grandfather* has been Blinkit v/s a global comp Instacart (US listed | $12.53bn MCap | IPO in Sept ‘23)

Zomato (Eternal) MCap is ~$24bn today — per Analysts, Blinkit is approx. 50% of that ($12bn MCap) i.e. like-for-like — Blinkit has the same MCap as Instacart… So, we tend spend time looking at Instacart’s public filings

Instacart generated ~$450M in profit for 2024 — just goes to show how powerful at an scale consumer commerce platform can be!!

Few notes below ⤵️ 👍 of course, Instacart is NOT the same biz as Blinkit:

(1) US is different from India
(2) Instacart does store pick-ups v/s Blinkit’s dark store model
(3) Instacart focuses on ‘stock-up’ orders v/s QC in India is still ‘top up’ orders focused
(4) Instacart is grocery heavy (~85%) v/s QC in India is expanding categories beyond grocery

🤔But, what are Instacart’s metrics viz Blinkit?

Gross Order Value (GOV): $33.46bn v/s Blinkit’s annualized $3.5bn

Avg Order Value (AOV): $112 v/s Blinkit’s ₹707 (~$8)

Paid subscribers: 5.1M Instacart+ users ($99 p.a.) v/s 0 for Blinkit

No. of orders: 294M v/s Blinkit’s annualized 380M

Avg order frequency: 2-4 orders per month v/s Blinkit’s 5-10

Look @ difference in AOV & subscription income which drives Instacart profit.

India is short of 50 Lakh medical professionals right now. The majority of medical staff (> 60%) aren’t doctors or nurses — they are AHPs (Allied Health Professionals).

Due to a global shortage of ~ 1.8 crore AHPs, many countries ‘import’ AHPs who are trained in India…

Traditionally, these roles have not been seen as the preferred career path but this is fast changing:

In the past 2 years, a few startups have been founded to capture a slice of the $200bn annual opportunity in Healthcare training, staffing & recruitment: This is a “big money business” i.e. these startups are founded by experienced (repeat) founders who raise big war chests —

BorderPlus raised a $7M Seed round yday
Emversity raised a $11M Seed round in 2024
Virohan raised $7M in 2023.

Even RED Health (the 10-minute emergency ambulance business which raised $20M+) has floated a new venture called RED Versity in the AHP training space.

The core of what these companies do is Upskill India’s talent to provide healthcare services globally — our people are our most valuable resource & one of our largest exports ($129bn in inward remittances for 2024).

Zepto’s meat brand Relish is already larger than Licious on quick commerce — Relish was launched in Oct’23 whereas Licious was launched in Oct ‘15.

Zepto last reported ~ ₹30 crore in monthly Sales from Relish (excluding eggs — which would add ~₹10 crore extra per month). As usual, distribution trumps product (to some extent).

Data: Licious does ~20% of its ~₹750 crore of Sales via QC & other 3P online channels.

As a regular Licious customer, I personally found this data quite contradictory so I decided to dig into the Zepto private label strategy: 1️⃣ Zepto has 2 private label brands

Relish (meats & eggs) launched in Oct 2023

Daily Good (dried fruits, oil, dals, millets etc) launched in March 2024

2️⃣ As QC goes mainstream, we should expect ALL QC players to do more private label based on what we have seen across commerce in History:

DMart’s private label contribution = ~ 5.16% of GMV | last known stat FY 23

Amazon Basics = ~4% of GMV | last known stat from 2018

BB owns Fresho (meat brand); Swiggy had its own meat marketplace.

Per BluSmart’s founder, 90% of trips are single passenger. This one key insight has led to the creation of Gensol Ezio (a 2 seater fleet vehicle) designed by Gensol Engineering.

I’ve been tracking Gensol Engineering for over 18 months now — the company has expanded beyond solar EPC into EV mobility (via its affiliate BluSmart Cabs) and has now entered EV manufacturing.

I first came across the company because of BluSmart Cabs but have been continually impressed by their ecosystem development strategy around their core solar EPC biz⤵️ Jan ‘19 → entered EV charging via BluSmart Charge Pvt Ltd (subsidiary)

Jan ‘19 → entered EV mobility via BluSmart (affiliate)

July ‘22 → entered EV manufacturing by acquiring Strom Inc

Sept ‘24 → entered green hydrogen via a JV with Matrix Gas Ltd

💡Coming to their EV manufacturing push, the story & stats are super interesting:

As 10 minute food delivery becomes the battleground — there is a parallel $ bn opportunity which some founders are pursuing.

The opportunity → Building the next Dominoes or McDonalds out of India (our 2nd Quick Commerce investment thesis)

To understand this, we need to rewind the clock.

History tells us that each time a new distribution channel emerges (e.g. print media, linear cable TV, Internet, E-Comm) — new Consumer Brands emerge to take advantage of the channel arbitrage.

This happened with Consumer Brands and Quick Commerce in India — fast movers emerged like Go Zero (70% of revenue from QC) & Slurrp Farm (30% of revenue from QC). And, some incumbents like Nestle (35% of revenue from QC) also played the channel arb.

Now, as 10-minute food delivery is taking off, there are 2 models being pursued: (1) Brand (i.e. full stack) ← Zepto Cafe, Swish, Zing, SNACC by Swiggy, Bistro by Blinkit etc

(2) Platform (i.e. aggregation) ← Bolt by Swiggy, Zomato Express, MagicNow by Magicpin etc

The brand play is full stack i.e. kitchen + delivery + customer exp.

The platform play is aggregation i.e. delivery + customer exp. but with partner restaurants

🔁When Swiggy & Zomato 1st took off — it created an opportunity for Rebel Foods type cloud kitchen businesses to grow via their platform (CAC was being off-loaded along with delivery).

🚀Now, as Bolt etc take off — there is a limited time opening to build a dark kitchen business catering to this 10 to 15 minute delivery window (which requires a VERY different config)

Herein lies the opportunity:

The M&A landscape for Consumer Brands in India is on absolute 🔥🔥 right now.

1️⃣July 2020 — Zivame (founded 2016 | Lingerie) acquired by Reliance Retail for ₹1,200 crore

2️⃣Oct 2021 – The Moms Co (founded 2016 | baby products) acquired by Good Glamm Group for ₹500 crore in cash & stock equivalent

3️⃣March 2022 — Clovia (founded 2012 | Lingerie) acquired by Reliance Retail @ ₹1067 crore valuation (89% stake bought for ₹950 crore)

4️⃣Dec 2022 — OZiva (founded 2016 | supplements) exited to HUL @ ₹517 crore valuation (51% stake bought for ₹264 crore)

5️⃣July 2023 — Plix (founded 2018 | supplements) exited to Marico @ ₹636 crore valuation (58% stake bought for ₹369 crore)

And, now, the blockbuster ⤵️ 💣January 2025: Minimalist Skincare (founded 2020 | BPC) rumored to be selling to HUL at a ₹3,000 crore valuation.

As a side note: Minimalist was a online heavy brand, it began a major offline push via EBOs in March 2024; offline retail was ~10% of the biz back then.

Commendable execution throughout! And kudos for being profitable right through the journey.

Every time someone says that “outcomes for Consumer Brands in India are capped”, it seems that the “known” cap gets lifted 😆

⚠️Note: Above, I have only have mentioned new-age consumer brands (i.e. founded post 2010) where valuation @ exit is ≥ ₹500 crore. There have been almost 100 consumer brand exits since 2020 (!!)

Bajaj Finance employs 53,000+ staff today across 4,145 locations in India.

PAT has grown from ₹30 crore to ₹ 19,000 crore over a 17 year period since inception.

Last week, Bajaj Finance held an Analyst meeting & released a terrific set of slides on the history, present & future of Bajaj Finance.

Sharing my 3 takeaways from the report — it has laid out its vision to become a “FinAI” company⤵️ (1) The 17 year retrospective ⏳

💸PAT has grown 644x → from ₹30 crore to ₹19,300 crore

💪 Credit quality has improved → Net NPAs down from 7% to 0.37%

🎚️Operating leverage has kicked in → OPEX as % of NII is down from 58.1% to 34%

🤯 Bajaj Finance market share (as % of India overall credit market) is just 2% today. Lending is a LARGE, fragmented & fast growing market.

Even a behemoth like Bajaj Finance is a small fish in the big pond!