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Yumi🌸 Profile picture
@samuraipips358
Jul 26 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
What the chart does after you close a position according to your rules is irrelevant to you.🧵

・The price rallied further after you took profit.
・The price moved in your intended direction after you cut your loss.
So what?
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 I understand the frustration of "the price rallying further after taking profit" or "the price moving in my intended direction after cutting my loss," but your trading will fall apart if you start thinking about this.

Let's remember your job as a trader again.
Your job is to repeatedly execute trades according to your rules and extract your edge through the law of large numbers from a large sample size built solely on those rule-based trades.

If your strategy and rules have an edge, all you have to do is keep repeating them.
All chart movements outside of those rules are irrelevant to you.

Don't try to capture every move.
3/5
 It's impossible to catch every price move.

This time the price may have rallied further after you took profit, but there are other times when it doesn't.
If you start getting swayed by results influenced by such one-off random events, you will develop an increasingly short-term perspective and lose your ability to trade consistently.

Above all, thinking in terms of wins, losses, or hindsight is proof that you have absolutely no understanding of probabilistic thinking.
4/5
 I can almost hear you say, "But the price rallies every time after I take profit, and it moves in my intended direction every time after I cut my loss," but is it really "every time"?

Or does it just feel like it's every time; have you actually collected the statistics?
In the first place, did you even test your current rules with proper statistics?
If your current rules were truly tested properly, you should have encountered the same issue during the testing phase.
So why is it that only now you're saying things like, "this happens every time after I close a position"?

It's likely because you decide everything vaguely based on the heat of the moment and experience from a small sample size that you lack confidence in your rules and can't maintain consistency, getting swayed by the results right in front of you.
5/5
 If your rules have an edge, you just have to follow them.
There is absolutely no need for you to worry about events that occur outside of those rules.

If it really bothers you, close your screen after a trade.

All you need to do is keep repeating the same actions and extract the edge your rules possess.

Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.

E-book
payhip.com/YumiSakura/col…

Paperback
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
a.co/d/fXmRhIa

【Trading Psychology】
a.co/d/d0QJMxK

Hope these insights help your trading journey😊

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More from @samuraipips358

Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 23
To you who finds stop-losses painful🧵

When you take a loss, do you think "I made a mistake"?
With every stop-loss, do you regret it, thinking "I did it again..."?

But that very way of thinking is the biggest enemy that destroys your consistency.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 First, what I want you to know is──
that a loss is not "evil".

If it is a loss you took based on a system with an edge and according to the rules, then that is a "correct stop-loss".
Rather, the structure of an edge is that profits ultimately remain "precisely because you have that stop-loss".

Conversely, even if you endure without a stop-loss and end up being saved, that is an "incorrect success experience".
It may feel good in the moment, but it will destroy your future consistency and your account.
3/5
 Many people think of a loss as a "failure" and believe they must learn something from it.

But that's wrong.

What you should learn from is "only when you have broken a rule".

If you executed a stop-loss according to the rules and lost, that is the "right answer".
There is not a single thing that needs to be changed.

The problem is,
・thinking "Maybe this stop-loss wasn't necessary..." and altering the rules,
・changing the conditions according to the outcome and pushing the stop-loss further away,
・making "avoiding a loss" your righteous cause

That is how you destroy "the very structure of the system".
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 22
Do not create "a special trade"🧵

If you think, "This trade is special," you will feel the next one is special as well.
This is because the only thing that ever exists for you is the special moment called "now."
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 To trade with probabilistic thinking means to always trade consistently under the same conditions.

Probability works when you have built a large sample size by repeatedly making consistent trades under the same conditions.
You must not include "a special one" in that sample size.

If you do "something special" for the trade you are making now, you will likely start doing that same action for "every trade" in the future.
Your rules will become a mere formality, reproducibility will be lost, and probability will cease to function.
3/5
 For us, the only thing that ever exists is always "the here and now."
The past and future certainly exist in our minds, but what we are experiencing is always "the here and now."

Even if you break a rule or take a special action and think, "This trade is special. I'll go back to my normal trading from the next one," at that point "the next trade" is a future event in your head, but that moment will come as "the present," just like this special trade has.

If you can vow to follow the rules from the next trade, you should just do it "from now."
If you cannot do that, it means you will not be able to do it next time either.

It is like saying every day, "I will start my diet tomorrow."
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 19
A successful trader is not "a trader who predicts and gets the market right" 🧵

You don't need to predict and get the market right.
Be a weather forecaster in a sunny region, saying every day, "Tomorrow will be sunny."
That's what a trader is.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 "Building a scenario" means having a plan of "if this happens, do this."

You simply build scenarios from the current chart based on your strategy's rules and keep executing "if this happens, do this."

"Predicting the market" and "building scenarios" are completely different things.

Repeating pre-determined actions like "if this happens, enter" or "if this happens, exit," and going through wins and losses while ultimately securing profits is what matters.
3/5
 For example, in a coin toss where heads is more likely or where heads yields a significantly large payout, your job is to "keep betting on heads."

There's no need to predict, "Maybe tails will come up next?"

In the short term, you might get tails repeatedly, but as the sample size grows, the law of large numbers takes effect, and the results converge to the true probability.

In a coin toss where you have an asymmetric bet with a large payout, all you need to do is keep betting on heads.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 18
Continuously execute your plan as designed🧵

Does that sound easy.
Try it.
This is the most difficult thing in trading.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 In trading, "execution" is extremely simple.
It's just a click of the mouse.

But this is incredibly difficult, a difficulty that someone who has never traded will not understand.
This is because just as a trader is about to click, "every thought imaginable" emerges to plague them.

Conversely, if "every thought imaginable" did not emerge, the click would be easy.
Understanding this might make you feel somewhat liberated.

This is why I structure my trading actions into a process.
3/5
 If "every thought imaginable" is what makes the click difficult, then the key is to create a framework where those thoughts cannot influence your actions.

The reason I always talk so much about building scenarios is to eliminate indecision right before the click by deciding in advance, "if this happens, then I do that".
Once you have decided on your "if this happens, then I do that", all that remains is to simply wait for the "conditions" to be met.

In addition:
・Do not watch the monitor constantly during a trade
・Do not look at other traders' opinions
・Do not display monetary amounts
・Create a procedural checklist for how you review the charts
…and so on.

There are many possibilities, but the important thing is to identify and preemptively block the triggers that induce "every thought imaginable" for you.
Start by recording the situations in which "every thought imaginable" emerges, and the specific thoughts that come up.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 16
For those who lose confidence at the time of entry 🧵

Many people feel confident over the weekend, yet suddenly lose that confidence when it's time to actually trade.
That anxiety is an opportunity for you to grow one step further.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 Getting anxious before an entry is a good opportunity to identify what you currently need.
Let's ask yourself two questions to explore the root of that anxiety.

Is it because you're thinking, “I might not win”?
Or is it because you're thinking, “I’m not sure if this follows my rules; I’m hesitating on whether I should take it”?

These two questions will likely reveal where your anxiety is coming from.
3/5
 If your anxiety is about the “outcome,” the cause is likely a lack of understanding of probabilistic thinking, a distrust in your strategy's edge, a mistaken belief that places value on short-term wins and losses, and so on.

On the other hand, if the anxiety is about “not being sure if it follows the rules, or hesitating on whether to take it,” the cause is likely that your entry “conditions” are not clear, or that you haven't built a scenario in advance and are not in a state of “waiting.”

In this way, explore the cause of your anxiety and identify which of your thought processes are creating it.
Your thoughts are always intertwined with your emotions.

Trying to deal only with the emotion is meaningless unless you remove its root cause.
No matter how much you control your breathing, your trading will not be successful if your strategy lacks an edge.
For example, if the cause of your anxiety is a distrust in your strategy's edge, you must address that specific issue.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 14
How to stay motivated until you see results?🧵

Probability needs a large sample size to work.
Don't rely on motivation.
People who rely on feelings will always waver.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 For probability to work, a large sample size is necessary, and we as traders are required to act consistently.

I'm often asked, "How can I stay motivated until I see results?", but you must not rely on motivation.
It's important to "systematize" your actions.

If you rely on motivation or emotions, you will always waver.
The consistency required of you cannot be achieved if you use your emotions as fuel.

You must continue to perform your daily habits as a matter of course, "without the intervention of willpower".
3/5
 When you remain consistent to let probability work, you will inevitably encounter a losing streak.

That is a matter of course, and it is perfectly normal.
The reason we can't maintain consistency is that we encounter a losing streak, doubt our system by thinking, "Has the market changed?" or "Has the system stopped working?", and end up changing our actions.

I will say it again: "A losing streak is normal".

It's easy for us to keep following the rules when we are winning.
The time we lose our consistency is during a losing streak.

To let probability work, we are required to calmly keep following the rules even during a "losing streak", which is when we are at the highest risk of abandoning our consistency.
It comes down to how well you understand and trust that your system has a probabilistic edge, and on how large of a sample size that trust is based.
Read 5 tweets

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