Writing about the frontline situation and changes in Ukraine is hard, because I feel there has been very little new to say for a long while.
The same patterns repeat.
The Russians creep forwards at varying rates, the Ukrainians suffer from manpower issues.
Sometimes a flank gets weakened enough that the Russians form a pocket or threathen a city.
Ukrainians use up resources to withdraw from an area they should've left a while ago.
The Russians won't create larger operational success.
Ukrainian counterattacks remain tactical.
The situation looks largely stable from Western capitals, but in actuality it slowly worsens for Ukraine. It's just at such a rate that it doesn't raise red flags.
The Russian rate of advance slowly rises, more gaps appear in Ukrainian lines...
New aid or sanctions or long range strikes or other political decisions don't seem to change the situation one way or another.
I've used "bad but slowly getting worse" to describe the situation for longer than I remember now.
Even the loudest supporters and critics of Ukraine are sort of aligned in a collective shrug about the prospect of Pokrovsk falling because the impact will be limited.
Mind you, it's all much better than a catastrophic situation for Ukraine.
It's just hard to say alot about it
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Over the past 10 days, a Russian offensive pushed Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk salient, ending a 7-month operation.
What happened? Why did Ukraine withdraw? What’s next? 🧵
You can read a longer version on our Substack
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In August a Ukrainian offensive captured over 1200 km² of Russia's Kursk oblast.
The claimed goals were to draw Russian forces from Pokrovsk, capture leverage for negotiations and spoil a Russian operation from Sumy. It was likely also meant to shift the discourse.
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However, the Ukrainians failed to expand & secure their flanks and over the next 6 months the Ukrainian perimeter in Kursk diminished steadily. By the beginning of March the Ukrainians only held a bit over 300 km² of terrain in a narrow salient around the town of Sudzha.
I think there is some flawed logic here. In general the article fail to compare and contrast the Ukrainians and the Russians on similar grounds.
To an outside observer it feels like picking and choosing talking points instead of a completely honest assessment of the situation.
For example, the authors engage with assessments of Russian casualty numbers, yet fail to mention how Ukrainian officials have multiple times now published UA casualty numbers that indicate, at best, a 1:2 overall casualty ratio.
Current ratios may, naturally, differ from that.
It also ignores the enduring Ukrainian manpower issue that Ukraine has seemingly been unable to solve, while Russian recruitment is, according to Ukrainian intelligence, able to replace the casualties it's taking in Ukraine.
One needs to consider that when talking of attrition.
After breaching Selydove and Hirnyk early in the week, the Russians started offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction on Friday..
Due to these developments the situation on the South Donetsk frontline has turned very difficult.
Dark red = 20. OCT
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Vuhledar front:
On Friday the Russians began large scale attacks towards Shakhtarske and Bohoiavienka.
They gained ground quickly, advancing almost 7km towards Shakhtarske.
These attacks were supported by large scale artillery and air bombardments.
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In Bohoiavienka the Russians had managed to advance within 3km of the town before Friday.
Although the initial attacks may have been repelled, video footage from Bohovienka and reports from Shakhtarske indicate that Russians have a strong foothold in both villages.
After a few weeks of (relatively) lower intensity actions, the Russians have resumed offensive operations in the Selydove-Hirnyk area, south of Pokrovsk.
In the past few days, we've seen the Russians make tactical gains throughout the AO.
Selydove direction, a thread.
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As said, after an operational pause and transfer of reinforcements, the Russians have restarted offensive operations.
They are taking advantage of Ukrainian lack of manpower and using infiltration tactics, sending small infantry units through gaps in the Ukrainian line.
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The Russian advance here has been relatively rapid, over the past three days. Pictured is the confirmed change since monday.
According to unconfirmed reports, the Russians may control much of the grey area.
Confirmed advance is up to 2,6 kilometers, but likely further.
Just a reminder, at least a part of the 59th is in the salient north of Krasnohorivka.
We've repeatedly seen the willingness of the Ukrainians to spend lives over territory, but in recent months these sort of complaints from the front have become increasingly common
With the experienced brigades being drawn to Kursk and getting replaced with greener ones, and with increased pressure, it seems the UA high command is expecting to do more with less. If the line doesn't hold it seems the blame is pinned on the soldiers, not the orders.
Some have blamed the increase in these sort of orders and repercussions on Syrskyi, and I there may be some truth to it.
However, we also saw these style of stubborn static defense actions in Bakhmut and under Zalushnyi.