Thread by @SpencerGuard

Hamas has refused to negotiate the return of hostages or discuss disarmament. President Trump responded: “It got to a point where you’re gonna have to finish the job.” So what does finishing the job in Gaza actually look like? What options remain? What’s likely? What would help? 🧵 1/18
cnn.com/2025/07/25/pol…

War is inherently uncertain, so no one can say with confidence what will happen in Gaza. It is also up to Israel and Israel's society. But in my view, “finish the job” means continuing military operations to return the hostages, dismantle Hamas as an armed force, eliminate its political control in the Gaza Strip, and ensure Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. I highly recommend the recent podcast featuring Ambassador Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs, where he clearly outlines Israel’s goals and the end state it envisions in Gaza. 2/18 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one…

1) Global recognition of Israel’s legitimate and just war aims must be the baseline. As I’ve written before x.com/SpencerGuard/s…
Many who call for a “ceasefire now” implicitly argue that the war can end without dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities or removing it from power in Gaza. Their view often suggests that if Hamas simply returns the hostages, typically in exchange for an unbalanced release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the war should stop. That is not accurate. Any position that falls short of Hamas’s full military and political removal effectively endorses its continued rule in Gaza. It is a position that allows Hamas to regroup, rearm, and continue the cycle of violence in the near future. 3/18

2) Flood Gaza with humanitarian aid centered on methods that do not accept the cost Hamas imposes for feeding the population, which only serves to prolong the war. The U.S.–Israeli initiative known as the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation @GHFUpdates launched in May, has been extremely successful. In just five weeks, it has delivered nearly 100 million meals directly to civilians, feeding between one and two million Gazans each day. 4/18 x.com/GHFUpdates/sta…

Because the disconnection of aid posed a serious threat to Hamas’s power, they attacked the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Hamas had long weaponized food, controlling every sack of flour and every morsel to maintain power and profit. In response to GHF bypassing that control, Hamas created chaos in the aid distribution process. They disrupted feeding lines, shot at civilians on their way to receive aid, and approached IDF security positions to provoke clashes. These incidents sparked confusion and disinformation that quickly spread through international media. Stories lacking critical context were circulated widely, often originating from questionable Gaza-based sources, while ignoring the roles of GHF and the IDF in responding to these events. 5/18 x.com/GHFUpdates/sta…

These attacks, along with the accompanying misinformation campaign, coincided with the United Nations halting its aid deliveries into the Gaza Strip, citing security concerns. At the same time, the UN also refused to allow Israeli authorities or even the civilian-led Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to deliver food directly inside Gaza. As a result, nearly 1,000 aid trucks piled up inside the Strip. It was only after growing international attention and pressure that the UN finally resumed picking up and distributing the stalled shipments. 6/18 x.com/LTC_Shoshani/s…

More food is now flowing into Gaza, though it receives far less media attention than the chaos Hamas created at GHF sites or the headlines focused on starvation. Hundreds of United Nations trucks are now being picked up daily for distribution, and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation continues to deliver up to two million meals a day across its four main sites. In addition, GHF has established a system that allows approved groups to collect aid and deliver it to the most vulnerable areas. The foundation is also developing plans to expand its operations further. Air drops will also restart in Gaza. 7/18 x.com/IDF/status/194…

3) Do not accept the status quo. For example, the single most impactful action that could accelerate the effort to finish the job against Hamas is the creation of an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp or humanitarian zone a few kilometers inside the Sinai, on the Egyptian side of the Egypt–Gaza border. This should be a central topic at the United Nations. In nearly every major war I have studied, civilian populations are moved out of harm’s way to locations where they can receive shelter, food, and medical care. This is not only a humanitarian necessity, but a strategic one. 8/18

Despite some early talk of this happening. It was rarely mentioned again in the war. 9/18

https://x.com/Sinaifhr/status/1757879298940149921

In early 2024 Egypt began constructing a new massive 16-foot-high razor wire topped wall along the entire 8-mile border with Gaza to keep civilians in the Gaza strip during the war. 10/18

To be clear, creating a humanitarian area just inside the Sinai is very different from simply saying “in Egypt.” The Sinai is a vast region, approximately 23,500 square miles in eastern Egypt, and is far from major population centers. A designated area could be set up in a secluded location, providing safety and access. This would allow the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to deliver food, water, medical care, and other essential services to civilians from Gaza without interference. With international support, such a site could realistically be established within a week or two. 11/18

Those who claim this would be forced displacement are clearly not listening to the actual proposals. Even Ambassador Ron Dermer has said the solution could include a United Nations Security Council resolution guaranteeing that any civilians who temporarily relocate to the designated area will have the ability to return. 12/18

4) Continue to notify and encourage civilians to leave major combat zones. Even without the Sinai solution, the IDF will maintain its policy of issuing evacuation notices to help civilians move out of areas where fighting is expected. This remains a critical part of minimizing harm to noncombatants. 13/18

5) Continue the search and destruction of Hamas and its infrastructure. War is the use of force to compel the enemy to submit to your will. The IDF will continue systematically targeting Hamas militants and clearing Gaza of their military capabilities, one area at a time. This is not a quick or easy process, and no party should expect it to be. From close combat to locating and destroying Hamas’s tunnel networks, there are only so many ways to enter contested, dense urban terrain and eliminate both the enemy and their infrastructure. 14/18

6) Continue supporting groups that are not affiliated with Hamas and are either actively fighting Hamas or establishing areas free from its control. This has historically been an effective way to accelerate the destruction of an opposing force. Supporting such actors does not conflict with the eventual goal of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip once Hamas is removed from power. 15/18 x.com/SpencerGuard/s…

7) Mobilize and prepare for disinformation. In my view, Israel should be ready to confront the wave of disinformation that will grow as military operations continue. This includes false claims about aid distribution, battlefield activity, and even repeated accusations of genocide. Israel could hold daily press briefings that cover developments across all fronts - military, humanitarian, and political.

Every disinformation campaign could be countered quickly and consistently. For example, the recent surge in false genocide accusations should have been met with daily rebuttals and deconstruction as the narrative began to spread. 16/18 x.com/SpencerGuard/s…

8) Call out the double standards applied to Israel in its war against Hamas. Every aspect of Israel’s campaign in Gaza has been met with inconsistent and often hypocritical standards. These include distortions of the history and laws of war that apply to a nation defending itself after being attacked, the use of unreliable casualty data provided by Hamas to wage statistical warfare, and unrealistic expectations around Israel’s ability to move civilians out of harm’s way. Even the basic right to continue a war after suffering a major attack has been questioned in Israel’s case - something no other country would be expected to forfeit. 17/18

9) Bring solutions. Many individuals and organizations have attempted to offer answers to various aspects of the war and the goal of ending the fight against Hamas in Gaza. President Trump, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, and others have taken meaningful steps. They are often attacked when they do. But if the baseline conditions of the war are accepted, including the removal of Hamas’s military and political power, then the only responsible course of action is for individuals, groups, or nations to bring forward solutions that help achieve that endstate. 18/18