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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jul 27 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Given what happened to DoD procurement after the 2nd Clinton Adm. annihilation of military specifications, which killed the configuration mgt, systems engineering & production engineering disciplines in defense contractors.

I shudder to see what DOGE's AI will do.

Mil-spec🧵
1/
I've written about this issue for seven years starting on the Chicagoboyz weblog with a post titled:

"The 737 MAX and the Death of MIL-STD-499A SYSTEM ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
March 24th, 2019"

2/
In 2020 I was talking how the decay of systems engineering skills are affecting US Navy nuclear sub safe programs due to the lack of good systems engineering talent in Defense contractors.

3/
In 2021 I was calling out how the lack of Boeing systems engineering talent was affecting the Boeing KC-767 program.

4/
 Image
How China was showing signs of better systems engineering talent than Boeing in 2021.

5/
And also in 2021, how the collapse of the US Navy's two LCS designs, the Ford class CVN EMALS, "automation" & elevators, and the Zumwalt DDG were also down stream of the 2nd Clinton Adm cancellation of Mil-STD-499.

6/
In 2022 I was pointing out how that lack of Mil-STD-499 crippled US Defense contractors' ability to compete in a rapidly evolving Drone technology sector due to a lack of systems engineering talent.

7/
In Oct 2023 I again pointed out how the lack of systems engineering talent post the 1995 cancellation of MIL-STD-499 handicaps US defense contractors in competing with either Ukraine or China for drone tech.

8/
And how the lack of competent Boeing systems engineers pole axed the KC--767m 737-MAX and STARLINER crew capsule procurements.

9/
The lack of US, and the rise of Chinese, systems engineering was proved with a hypersonic bullet in 2023.

When China debuted, a fractional/orbital bombardment system (F/OBS) delivering a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), that was a US radar coverage dodging first strike nuclear EMP weapon.
10/Image
Image
And in 2024 Tyler Rogoway showed how the loss of Mil-Std-499 Systems Engineering in the 2nd Clinton Administration was a really bad policy choice everywhere with an article titled:

"Northrop Grumman Loses A Billion Dollars On The B-21 Program"

11/
The absolute best & common-sense thing DOGE AI could do for the Defense Department would be to force the issuance of MIL-STD-499B (DRAFT) 24 AUG 1993.

I don't expect anything 'common sense' to come from any AI looking at DoD Mil-Specs or regulations.

12/12 Image
P.S.

You can download a PDF copy of MIL-STD-499 B DRAFT 24AUG1993 SYSTEM ENGINEERING at the following link:

everyspec.com/MIL-STD/MIL-ST…
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 29
What is interesting for me is that the pre-2022 Western intelligence assessments of the Russian Army credited it with lots of tactical pipelines to move fuel.

Those would be far more useful in moving water than trucks...yet...where are they?

1/
These pipelines seem to have fallen into that same logistical 'assume they exist but don't' black hole as Russian truck D-rings & pallets, tactical truck trailers, and Russia's "superior" tooth to tail ratio that acts more like 1863 Union Army where...

2/
..."every soldier is a logistical manual laborer when not in combat".

Water is heavy. Pipelines are more efficient that trucks. Yet all we are seeing is Russian water trucks?

Who stole the Russian Army tactical pipelines? Or were they nothing but disinformation?

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 29
Russia is showing signs of being at "end run production."

It has run out of serious motor transport & even the smallest scale we are seeing kludged together trailers to make ends meet.

Note also: Water bottles & potatoes are the high priority transport items⬇️

End run🧵
1/
While we are getting Western intelligence assessments that continue to point out Russia's vast increases in production of military materiel, especially tanks, IFVs and APCs (from the same people who claimed Russia would over run Ukraine in 3-to-5 days)

2/
...claiming Russia is "obviously winning."

We are at the same time seeing economic signs of Russian "End Run Production."

The Russian wartime economy is functioning hand to mouth with oil sales revenues because all of the foreign exchange reserves are spent or frozen.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 24
So, the Thai Army is now ahead of the US Army in using heavy multi-copter drones?

This underscores the vulnerability of the West to drones due to its bureaucratically bloated and infinitely slow military procurement systems.

1/
The snail like pace of Western military procurement versus the Ukrainian fielding of an all-aspect stealth shaped OWA drone in less than a couple of years is very noticeable.

2/
We are here.⬇️

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
On the morning of 20 July 2025, a AFGSC airman at Minot AFB took his M18, still inside it's issued holster; and placed it on a desk.

It then went off, struck him in chest, and killed him

AFGSC issued a halt order on 21 July 2025 for use of M17/18 Modular Handgun System.

1/ Image
As an ex-DoD procurement official, that letter is a procurement killing hammer.

This is going to hit SIG Sauer like a moderate sized asteroid in terms of DCMA corrective actions requests or "CAR."

2/ Image
This AFGSC halt use order letter will be grounds for a level three corrective action request (CAR).

A DCMA level III CAR is defined as follows:

"A Level III Corrective Action Request (CAR) issued by the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) is a serious action taken when there are significant contractual nonconformities.

It is directed to the supplier's top management and is just one step below the possibility of contract suspension or termination.

This type of CAR serves as a management tool to address critical issues that need immediate attention."

3/Image
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
During WW2's combined bomber offensive, unitary incendiary bombs were found to be five times as effective as high explosive, mass for mass, at destroying buildings & structures.

But the bomber barons were hung up on the tonnage delivered, not their effects.

Success Metrics🧵
1/
A single 100lb M47 bomb (left) was as effective as a M65 500lb general purpose HE bomb.

The Bomber Mafia in ETO fought incendiaries, as their bombers lacked the bomb station multiple release modifications for most of WW2, as the mass of bombs dropped was a 'success metric.'

2/ Image
Image
After the bomber barons -finally- surrendered to the realty of incendiaries operational effectiveness.

Avoiding any USAAF responsibility for the horror that was Dresden cemented the burying of the effectiveness of USAAF firebombs used in the ETO.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 18
This:

"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."

Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.

Russian Railway🧵
1/ Image
Low friction roller bearings are a major technological strength of the West. 

They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.

Rail roller bearings are different in their application

2/
...but the computer control software for SKF & Amsted co-production machine tooling that Russia used is proprietary. That software left Russia in April/May 2022.

Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game

3/
Read 13 tweets

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