🧵The US-EU trade deal has generated a lot of talk on X about how this is a humiliation for the #EU, how it should be a wake up call for Europe, how Europe must assert itself, etc. My take is that if anything it should finally put paid to all the talk about the EU as “Europe.”1/5
The European Union is a treaty-based organization, not a nation-state that can function as a unitary actor in the international system. It has been remarkably successful as a framework for integrating Europe’s markets and providing regulatory structures (sometimes excessive).2/5
But despite all the talk about EU foreign and security policy, Europe remains a continent of nations with distinct histories and cultures, and with regionally-focused threat perceptions and national interests. This should be the starting point of any discussion of EU policy. 3/5
I have watched with growing bewilderment how since the end of the Cold War various EC/EU leaders talked themselves into believing that hard security no longer mattered in their brave new world of globalization, and that EU institutions would ultimately trump geopolitics. 4/5
The EU-US trade deal should finally end all delusions about the EU as a unitary actor. History has never ended—we are back to geopolitics and hard power, where security remains the irreducible function of the state. The European Union is not a state and can’t act as one. 5/End
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵There is a race among European capitals as to which country will take the point as the lead in relations with the United States. In Europe's capitals one hears plenty of talk about the unified EU, but the Trump administration sees it differently, preferring bilateralism. 1/10
Paris, London and most recently Berlin have registered their desire to take that spot, each country's leader having visited the White House with a message of cooperation and underscoring how important transatlantic relations are, both when it comes to the economy and defense.2/10
This is in stark contrast to contrast to various and sundry declarations about the imperative of Europe's "independence" from the United States heard in Berlin and Brussels, or the perennial talk about "strategic autonomy" heard in Paris in different permutations each month. 3/10
🧵A quick follow-on comment on the story in the @WSJ about @Harvard being the premier educational institution for communist China's party elites. The problem is deeper than US schools simply getting foreign student tuition. It is about how ideologically blinded we've become. 1/10
National security is the irreducible function of the state-without it democracies cannot make independent political and economic choices. For a democracy, ensuring that no policy choice endangers national security must be the guiding principle for every aspect of governance. 2/10
And yet for over 30 years we have allowed our adversaries unfettered access to our best universities and research facilities, all the while asserting that in this "globalized flat world" communist China will modernize and generate a pluralist system. What were we smoking? 3/10
🧵Watching the West stumble from one crisis to the next, I think democratic governance has been hollowed by our inept elites, possibly beyond repair. I see this both as a byproduct of globalization and what has been happening deep inside our nations and our communities. 1/10
This hollowing out of Western democracy is not about electoral processes or counting votes. It’s about the elites believing less and less they actually owe something to their fellow citizens by virtue of being part of a larger community. This core national bond is cracking. 2/10
This hollowing out of Western democracies is caused by the decomposition of the nation—driven by the deconstruction of national identity without which the bond of citizenship no longer rests on the mutuality of obligation among citizens regardless of their wealth or class. 3/10
🧵A few observations from this European trip. BLUF: Our European allies—at least some of the largest ones—do not fully appreciate that we are in an economic war with China. As I wrote here, how Europe rolls on China will define transatlantic relations. 1/8 politico.eu/article/europe…
When I hear that some key allies will not decouple from the PRC, but may actually strengthen those economic relations, I’ve got to ask: What do you want your future to be? Are you ready to decouple from the US and throw your lot with the Chinese Communist Party as your future?2/8
Do you see yourself as a link in the land-baset supply chain network run from Beijing called Belt and Road? Do you believe that your future no longer lies in then Atlantic? If so, please say so loud and clear because right now we are debating what our force posture should be. 3/8
🧵I am still digesting my drive through America's Southwest. There is a sense of sadness and hope when I think about what I saw and the conversations I had. I'm heading to North Carolina in about a week. And with each trip I will try to understand better what is happening. 1/10
I spent the last 7 years in Germany (overall about 12 years living and working there for the US gov't), moving across Europe, speaking at various conferences and meetings. Taken together with my 1.5 years back in DC, I have a profound sense of sadness when I see this change. 2/10
At a recent conference I heard again an economist talk about "jobs going overseas because of comparative advantage," and I couldn't help asking him if comparative advantage existed outside of corporate and government action. Maybe it does in intro to microeconomics textbooks.3/10
🧵I must ask this simple question: Why is Western Europe-especially Germany-so hasty to decouple from the United States. In Munich after the speech at the Munich Security Conference by VP Vance, I heard immediately comments from politicos about how the US abandoned Europe. 1/13
Soon after, the incoming DEU Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on Europe to become "independent" of the United States. And since then, I've heard similar comments from my friends in Western Europe, both private citizens and those who are involved in governments and politics. 2/13
I have to ask if for Europe-especially Germany and France-decoupling form the United States has been on the agenda for some time now, and whether the deepening problems in the relationship are structural and not simply a reaction to the actions of the Trump administration. 3/13