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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jul 29, 2025 • 12 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/12

PMC estimates 400,000 new daily infections. 1 in 118 people actively infectious.

Weekly stats:
🔹2.8 million infections (>40x reported cases)
🔹>140,000 resulting #LongCOVID cases
🔹>1,000 resulting excess deaths Heat map Very High: Louisiana, Guam High: Hawai'i, Florida
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/12

Please excuse any typos and delays. Any time Mimal's boot turns deep red, we're doing local outreach in addition to dashboard work, etc.

If you don't know Mimal yet, you won't be able to unsee them.
es.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIMALDeep red boot = Louisiana
Minnesota (M), Iowa (I), Missouri (M), Arkansas (A), Louisiana (L) = Mimal Louisiana is the boot. Sometimes depicted with Kentucky fried chicken on a Tennessee pan.
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/12

It's HOT COVID SUMMER in the Deep South. No geographic/political prejudices, see next.

Covid is burning through Guam, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas (underestimate due to sites down). Louisiana: 1 in 32, Very High (CDC)
Texas: 1 in 98, Moderate (underestimate, CDC)
Guam: 1 in 25, Very High (CDC)
Florida: 1 in 59, High (CDC)
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵4/12

It's also HOT COVID SUMMER out West. No geographic/political prejudices, see previous.

California and Hawai'i have unrelenting transmission. Hawai'i: 1 in 43, High (CDC)
California: 1 in 82, Moderate (CDC), with High/Very High in many areas
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵5/12

New York State is mostly in the dark on COVID transmission. The CDC has most sites offline. The NYS dashboard includes the most recent estimates. It was getting bad in NYC before lights out.

NY Links: pmc19.com/data/index.php…New York: 1 in 203, but many sites offline. CDC says "Low" but too little data to say
NY State has many sites offline but has most recent data mapped geospatially and shows "high" transmission in the NYC area
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵6/12

Texas has fallen from High to Moderate, but it appears to be an artifact with many sites going offline this week.

High transmission sites going offline adds noise to the forecast. Uncertain times. Texas: 1 in 98, but many sites fell offline
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵7/12

Today you experienced a typical day in the last 5.5 years of the pandemic, with transmission higher than 47% of days, and lower than 53%.

Typical means that in a room of 35 people, there's a 1 in 4 chance of exposure. Current Levels for Jul 28, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 118) New Daily Infections 406000 New Weekly Infections 2842000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 142,000 to 568,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,000 to 1,700 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.4% (1 in 72) Average New Daily Infections 659733.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 19792000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 990,000 to 3,958,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 7,100 to 11,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 89130000 Average Number o...
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵8/12

The year-over-year graph shows that current transmission (red line) is similar to that of 2 years ago (yellow line) and 4 years ago (blue line).

The forecast formally models year-over-year trends and recent transmission. We are estimated to soon reach 500,000 daily infections, but with low real-time data quality, regional variation, and much uncertainty.Forecast for increasing transmission with considerably uncertainty
year over year graph, Covid rising, like past summers
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵9/12

Spain offers an illustrative example of uncertainty ahead. Wastewater data are limited to sites (albeit many) in the Barcelona area and reported monthly. XFG took off with limited warning.

The U.S. sites have much better representation and report more frequently so can spot a surge with greater warning.

Note: The variant-naming system (XFG) is not community-centered. It's jargon. Even the nickname, "stratus," is unhelpful jargon. For communities dealing with this jargon, we recommend the following memory tip:

XFG = X-FG, X-FoG, or eXtra brain FoG.

Each reinfection increases the cumulative chances of brain fog and other neurologic, vascular, and multisystemic damage.
x.com/michael_hoerge…
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵10/12

It's a good time to stock up on masks and tests. WellBefore is my go-to brand for disposable kids' masks. I've made 2 major purchase orders the past month to donate to local kids.

I receive no preferential discounts, kickbacks, or other financial benefit from any company, including in the COVID space. I talk to many company leaders regularly and worked out the 10% discount.

Let me know if the discount code works or if you need any help with sizing.WellBefore, discount code: HOERGER10 10% off masks and tests
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵11/12

Serious people continue to take COVID very seriously. We distributed 1,000 tests in 90 minutes today.

Serious folks mask, vax, test, and clean the air. Top health systems require universal masking. We distributed >1,000 tests in 90 minutes. Musicians, restaurant workers, bar tenders, churchgoers, patients, & families were well represented. These are more than test kits! We include web addresses for CDC state-level data & the PMC dashboard. #CommunityCare
Over 75% of PMC Covid Dashboard viewers note using 4 layers of mitigation (masks, vax, tests, air quality) in the past 6 months. 95% use at least 3 out of 4 layers.
JAMA-NO Today: Masking is a new indicator of healthcare quality. >80% of top #cancer centers have strict masking policies during #Covid waves. #KeepMasksInHealthcare #YallMasking #SaltingTheVibes
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵12/12

If you found this thread helpful, please RT the first Tweet, like each post to boost, use/improve the images here and on the dashboard, and share across platforms.
pmc19.com/data

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections 941,000 Infections the Past Week 6,020,000 Infections in 2026 18,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.01 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 47,000 to 188,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 301,000 to 1,200,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 270 to 450 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 10
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.

We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.

🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27

Quick 🧵 1/4 Heat map and PMC estimates, 1 in 55 infectious and 892,000 new daily infections for Jan 12. We expedited the report to release it two days early.
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.

We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4 Alabama Moderate Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas High* California Very Low Colorado Low Connecticut Very High Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very High Indiana Very High Iowa High Kansas Very High Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine High Maryland High Massachusetts Very High Michigan Very High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi Low* Missouri Very High* Montana High Nebraska High Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Moderate New Jersey Low New Mexico Moderate New York High* North Ca...
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.

Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4 12 waves of COVlD Pandemic barometer: Higher than 88% of the past 100 days, 73% of the past year, 68% of the entire pandemic. Year over year graph Forecast of slowly declining transmission.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 8
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.

We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.

Let me walk you through it...

🧵1/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates noted: -Maine 1 in 38 actively infectious with COVlD -New Hampshire 1 in 35 (limited data) -Vermont 1 in 75 -New York 1 in 44 (limited data) -Pennsylvania 1 in 44 -Massachusetts 1 in 36 -Connecticut 1 in 24 -Rhode Island 1 in 41 -New Jersey 1 in 82
Notice that #Connecticut has excellent SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance. It's "Very High" across much of the state, per CDC.

Based on wastewater levels, we estimate 1 in 24 residents are actively infectious w/COVlD. That's a 66% exposure risk in a room of 25 people.

🧵2/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC estimate of prevalence
The CDC reports "Very High" levels in #Massachusetts.

The surveillance is less robust, but we estimate 1 in 26 residents are actively infectious, similar to our estimate in CT where coverage is better.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 62% chance of an exposure.

🧵3/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates provided
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 8
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave in the U.S., with transmission particularly high in the Midwest and Northeast.

The CDC announced this week that COVlD continues to kill more Americans than breast and prostate cancer combined.

Get boosted & #MaskUp 💉💪😷
1/4🧵 Heat map of CDC data with PMC prevalence estimate
Levels are "Moderate" to "Very High" in 26 states.

However, data reporting is slow, and about 1/3 of states have low-quality data this week due to the holidays and illness.

2/4🧵 National estimates: Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.5% 2 3.0% 3 4.5% 4 6.0% 5 7.4% 10 14.3% 15 20.7% 20 26.5% 25 32.0% 30 37.0% 50 53.8% 75 68.6% 100 78.6% 200 95.4% 300 99.0%
Barometer: Higher transmission than 90 of the past 100 days (perhaps higher still, due to low data reporting quality)
State CDC Level Actively Infectious Alabama Moderate 1 in 48 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 152 (0.7%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 201 (0.5%) Arkansas High* 1 in 36 (2.8%) California Very Low 1 in 484 (0.2%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 49 (2.0%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Delaware Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,835 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 284 (0.4%) Georgia Low 1 in 90 (1.1%) Guam Very Low 1 in 687 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 874 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 169 (0.6%) Illinois Moderate* 1 in 56 (1.8%) Indiana High* 1 in 34 (2.9%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Kansas...
State CDC Level Actively Infectious Missouri Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) Montana High 1 in 34 (2.9%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 26 (3.9%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 138 (0.7%) New Hampshire High* 1 in 35 (2.9%) New Jersey Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) New Mexico Low 1 in 87 (1.2%) New York Moderate* 1 in 44 (2.3%) North Carolina Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) North Dakota High* 1 in 34 (3.0%) Ohio Very High 1 in 27 (3.7%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 170 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Rhode Island Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) South Carolina Moderate 1 in 54 (1.9%) South Dakota Very High 1 in...
If like years 1-4 of the pandemic, the winter wave has peaked. If like last year, we could hover near peak levels for a month.

Forecasting quality is low with 1/3 of states having data issues. Hopefully, we'll know a lot more in a few days.

3/4🧵 12 waves
Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 65 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 749,000 Infections the Past Week 5,390,000 Infections in 2026 3,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.88 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 150,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 270,000 to 1,080,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 220 to 370 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
year over year graph
forecast
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 5
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.

Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later).
1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5
Read 6 tweets

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