Applebaum: Trump admires unchecked power — no courts, no journalists. He’s positively disposed to Russia and personally impressed by Putin.
As a trained KGB officer, Putin would know how to exploit weaknesses. Trump believes Putin is his friend. 1/
Applebaum: Trump shows no empathy. He calls opponents vermin and says immigrants poison the nation's blood — language used by Hitler.
He’s immune to cruelty, unmoved by civilian deaths. 2/
Applebaum: Putin's goals
— rebuild the Russian Empire with himself as its leader, erasing Ukraine’s identity and incorporating it by force or control
— destroy the pro-European, anti-corruption ideals of Ukraine’s 2014 revolution, which he deeply fears. 3/
Applebaum: “Polar” means nothing. In Putin’s usage, it implies a world where might makes right. Where strong countries dominate weaker ones, free from rules, the UN, or U.S. influence.
This is the global order he seeks — personal and political. 4/
Applebaum: Russia helped build up Germany’s AfD and tried to influence elections in Britain and France. The Brexit campaign was mostly British, but Russia supported it.
They invested money, effort, and strategy — actively campaigned for Trump in 2016. 5/
Applebaum: In 1994, Estonia’s president warned of rising Russian imperialism. Putin, then deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, walked out.
His imperial ambitions date back decades, as do his criminal ties. Cynicism and greed have defined his actions from the start. 6/
Applebaum: If you truly want peace, you must arm Ukraine until Putin accepts the war is over. West often miss this.
Putin, from the start, underestimated Ukraine — its elected government, real national identity, and will to fight, even through guerrilla war if needed. 7/
Applebaum: If I led NATO or the EU, I’d have suspended Hungary’s voting rights. Hungary no longer acts as an ally or in good faith. But you don’t expel them — many Hungarians, perhaps a majority, want Orban gone. 8/
Applebaum: Many now understand the threat Russia poses — not just to Ukraine, but to Europe itself.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and others are rethinking defense: not just spending more, but spending smarter in this new high-tech drone war. 9/
Applebaum: China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela lack a shared ideology, but they see Western democratic values as threats: rule of law, free media, independent courts.
That’s what unites them. They aim to undermine these principles at home and abroad to preserve their power. 10X
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Russia gave its main security agency legal power to shut down internet and phone service nationwide. Like in Iran: cut the web when protests erupt.
If crowds fill Moscow’s streets, the switch is ready — United24.
1/
The State Duma passed the law on Jan. 27.
The UK Ministry of Defence says it lets the FSB order total communication blackouts for vaguely defined “security threats,” with no clear limits and no oversight.
2/
The order takes effect immediately.
Telecom operators must cut internet, mobile, landline, and messaging services the moment the FSB demands it — no court order, no appeal.
3/
Russian soldier came to Ukraine as occupier in 2022. Now he evacuates Ukrainian soldiers under fire in Avdiivka and serves as a tank gunner in the Russian Volunteer Corps.
Russia still pays child support for his three kids back home — Ukrainian Witness. 1/
“Chornyi” was mobilized in 2022. Airborne troops. Father of three. Could have avoided service.
Сhornyi: "I went to war out of stupidity. To prove to someone that they were wrong. I was sure I could come home." He couldn't. 2/
He was deployed to the 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade. Sent to Dzhankoy, then to a village near Armyansk. They did nothing.
Dug trenches. Mined beaches near Energodar. The mines floated away. Exploded near the nuclear plant. 3/
A Polish general says Poland has a backup plan for a Russian invasion scenario if the US steps back.
Błazeusz: You always need to have the main plan and branch plans in case things go differently. Boots on the ground may shrink, but their critical capabilities stay in place. 1/
Błazeusz: Ukraine is only a milestone for Russia.
In the ultimatum sent to Western countries in December 2021, Ukraine was mentioned only twice.
They demanded NATO never expand again and that NATO forces withdraw from countries that joined after 1999. 2/
Błazeusz: If Russia decides to take on Europe, the US will respond with force.
Washington understands that a Russian success in Europe, combined with China, would quickly turn into a direct threat to the United States. 3X
Kyiv School of Economics advocates another way to hit Russian oil revenues: completely blocking oil tankers from key sea routes and ports unless they have proper international P&I insurance — Brookings
This would cut Russia’s oil export tax revenues from the Baltic by 5.6–14% 1/
If a tanker is stopped, the pressure shifts to the country whose flag it sails under.
Russia registers its tankers in poor states and insures them there.
If the EU forces those states to enforce real insurance rules, former flag countries won’t give these ships insurance.
2/
This is also beneficial for Europe.
Currently, if an accident with a tanker from shadow fleet occurs, European taxpayers pay for it. In a new approach, the tanker will simply not be allowed to go to sea.
But if an accident does occur, the country of registration will pay.
3/