Applebaum: Trump admires unchecked power — no courts, no journalists. He’s positively disposed to Russia and personally impressed by Putin.
As a trained KGB officer, Putin would know how to exploit weaknesses. Trump believes Putin is his friend. 1/
Applebaum: Trump shows no empathy. He calls opponents vermin and says immigrants poison the nation's blood — language used by Hitler.
He’s immune to cruelty, unmoved by civilian deaths. 2/
Applebaum: Putin's goals
— rebuild the Russian Empire with himself as its leader, erasing Ukraine’s identity and incorporating it by force or control
— destroy the pro-European, anti-corruption ideals of Ukraine’s 2014 revolution, which he deeply fears. 3/
Applebaum: “Polar” means nothing. In Putin’s usage, it implies a world where might makes right. Where strong countries dominate weaker ones, free from rules, the UN, or U.S. influence.
This is the global order he seeks — personal and political. 4/
Applebaum: Russia helped build up Germany’s AfD and tried to influence elections in Britain and France. The Brexit campaign was mostly British, but Russia supported it.
They invested money, effort, and strategy — actively campaigned for Trump in 2016. 5/
Applebaum: In 1994, Estonia’s president warned of rising Russian imperialism. Putin, then deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, walked out.
His imperial ambitions date back decades, as do his criminal ties. Cynicism and greed have defined his actions from the start. 6/
Applebaum: If you truly want peace, you must arm Ukraine until Putin accepts the war is over. West often miss this.
Putin, from the start, underestimated Ukraine — its elected government, real national identity, and will to fight, even through guerrilla war if needed. 7/
Applebaum: If I led NATO or the EU, I’d have suspended Hungary’s voting rights. Hungary no longer acts as an ally or in good faith. But you don’t expel them — many Hungarians, perhaps a majority, want Orban gone. 8/
Applebaum: Many now understand the threat Russia poses — not just to Ukraine, but to Europe itself.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and others are rethinking defense: not just spending more, but spending smarter in this new high-tech drone war. 9/
Applebaum: China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela lack a shared ideology, but they see Western democratic values as threats: rule of law, free media, independent courts.
That’s what unites them. They aim to undermine these principles at home and abroad to preserve their power. 10X
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Russia can’t win by force, so it wages cognitive war to confuse, delay, and paralyze decisions in the West.
Its goal: get others to do less so it can do more[and win Ukraine in war], Nataliya Bugayova for Foreign Policy.
1/
Putin knows NATO's economy dwarfs his. If the West backs Ukraine fully, Russia loses. So he pushes false premises:
– Russian victory is inevitable
– Western aid is pointless
– Russia deserves a sphere of influence
2/
Russia hits every platform: state media (TASS, RT), foreign conferences, diplomacy, international bodies, and social media. It links these with cyberattacks, drills, sabotage, and military strikes.
3/
European Pravda explains how much Europe will cut if Ukraine misses deadlines: in Q2 2024, Ukraine failed 3 of 4 reform targets — Brussels cut the €4.48B tranche to €3.05B. If delays continue, Ukraine risks losing another €1B from the next €2B payment.
1/
This cut was not linked to July’s NABU rollback. That law sparked protests, but the EU reduced the tranche due to earlier delays Kyiv had known about since spring.
2/
Missed indicators:
— Vocational education reform
— Selection of High Anti-Corruption Court judges
— Reform of territorial executive power
Only the ARMA law passed, unlocking €500M.
3/
RIA Novosti mocks Ukraine’s army, praises Russia’s, and accuses the West of feeding Ukrainians into a meat grinder for show.
Here’s how their propaganda works, step by step.
1/
RIA calls Western praise of Ukraine a paradox. They say media outlets[The Economist, Atlantic Council] praise Ukraine’s very-very strong army while also reporting collapsing trenches, failed logistics, falling morale, desertions, and encircled positions.
2/
They write that Ukrainian losses already double the mobilization rate. That Ukraine’s army shrinks before your eyes. That Zelenskyy’s allies plan to remove him.
3/
Trump offered Putin Ukraine[in fact]. Putin said no. Why? Atlantic Council explains.
Trump offered Putin a deal: keep occupied Ukrainian regions, block Ukraine from NATO, ease sanctions. He even considered recognizing Russia’s seizure of Crimea. Putin refused.
1/
Putin thinks he’s winning. Russian troops advance. Ukraine runs low on weapons. Western support stays slow and limited. Why stop now?
2/
Russia’s war economy runs hot. Arms factories work 24/7. Soldiers earn big money. Oil and gas exports shift to Global South. Kremlin elites cash in.
3/