Applebaum: Trump admires unchecked power — no courts, no journalists. He’s positively disposed to Russia and personally impressed by Putin.
As a trained KGB officer, Putin would know how to exploit weaknesses. Trump believes Putin is his friend. 1/
Applebaum: Trump shows no empathy. He calls opponents vermin and says immigrants poison the nation's blood — language used by Hitler.
He’s immune to cruelty, unmoved by civilian deaths. 2/
Applebaum: Putin's goals
— rebuild the Russian Empire with himself as its leader, erasing Ukraine’s identity and incorporating it by force or control
— destroy the pro-European, anti-corruption ideals of Ukraine’s 2014 revolution, which he deeply fears. 3/
Applebaum: “Polar” means nothing. In Putin’s usage, it implies a world where might makes right. Where strong countries dominate weaker ones, free from rules, the UN, or U.S. influence.
This is the global order he seeks — personal and political. 4/
Applebaum: Russia helped build up Germany’s AfD and tried to influence elections in Britain and France. The Brexit campaign was mostly British, but Russia supported it.
They invested money, effort, and strategy — actively campaigned for Trump in 2016. 5/
Applebaum: In 1994, Estonia’s president warned of rising Russian imperialism. Putin, then deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, walked out.
His imperial ambitions date back decades, as do his criminal ties. Cynicism and greed have defined his actions from the start. 6/
Applebaum: If you truly want peace, you must arm Ukraine until Putin accepts the war is over. West often miss this.
Putin, from the start, underestimated Ukraine — its elected government, real national identity, and will to fight, even through guerrilla war if needed. 7/
Applebaum: If I led NATO or the EU, I’d have suspended Hungary’s voting rights. Hungary no longer acts as an ally or in good faith. But you don’t expel them — many Hungarians, perhaps a majority, want Orban gone. 8/
Applebaum: Many now understand the threat Russia poses — not just to Ukraine, but to Europe itself.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and others are rethinking defense: not just spending more, but spending smarter in this new high-tech drone war. 9/
Applebaum: China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela lack a shared ideology, but they see Western democratic values as threats: rule of law, free media, independent courts.
That’s what unites them. They aim to undermine these principles at home and abroad to preserve their power. 10X
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FT: Zelenskyy at Munich said he'd hold elections but only after two months of ceasefire and with security guarantees in place.
He's pushing back hard on US pressure to hold votes by May 15. 1/
Washington wants elections and a peace deal by mid-May, with security guarantees contingent on the broader settlement. Kyiv insists security guarantees must come before any peace deal is signed. 2/
White House is pressing — “hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace deal by May 15 or risk losing US security guarantees entirely.” That's the ultimatum hanging over Zelenskyy in Munich. 3/
Xi Jinping purged 5 of 6 generals in China's top military body over past three years. He reaches back to Maoist tactics of "rectification."
Only two members left in Central Military Commission: Xi and Vice Chairman who oversees purges — The NYT. 1/
In January, Xi called on China to remember Yan'an, where Mao transformed guerrilla fighters into disciplined force through campaign of political terror that eliminated rivals and cemented his absolute authority. 2/
Last year 983,000 officials punished for violating party rules — highest number on record.
John Garnaut, Garnaut Global founder: "Xi believes he needs to build foundation of absolute ideological unity and personal loyalty for future battles." 3/
Finland Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen: Russia has most of its biggest strategic capabilities in nuclear, submarines, and long-range bombers in the Kola Peninsula area.
They are building new military facilities along our border, same as in the Cold War — United24. 1/
Kola Peninsula hosts most of Russia's sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal — submarines and long-range aviation assets.
Häkkänen: "It would be wise to watch the Arctic and build Arctic capabilities for deterrence. High North should have been treated as priority years ago." 2/
Finland's forces are "fully Arctic" and ready to share expertise with allies. Finland requested funding under $177.8b EU defense loan scheme.
$1.19b approved by European Commission last month. Big part of money will go to land forces: armored vehicles and drones. 3X
Hodges: Nobody believes that if Russia gets that last bit of Donbas they will be satisfied and stop.
I’ve listened to Putin, Medvedev. They haven’t backed down on anything. Why should anybody think that’s all they wanted? 1/
Hodges: I can’t imagine Putin admitting his war was a huge mistake. Maybe people say, “You are destroying us.” Or maybe he doesn’t know what’s going on.
For years we were told the ex-KGB officer is smart, playing three-dimensional chess. If he doesn’t know, that’s his fault. 2/
Hodges: Casualties don’t matter to Putin. What matters is whether he can stay in power and whether the economy can generate enough money to keep the war going.
That’s why destroying Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure is a good strategy. 3/
At Munich Security Conference world leaders declared post-1945 world order is dead — Ray Dalio.
Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists. We are in a period of great power politics. Freedom is no longer a given". 1/
Macron: Europe's old security structures tied to previous world order don't exist. Europe must prepare for war.
Rubio: We are in a new geopolitics era because the old world is gone. 2/
Ray Dalio: We are in Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from a period where there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers.
This is the stage where international relations follow the law of the jungle. 3/
Russia's foreign intelligence service planned military coup in Senegal.
Leaked documents show Moscow recruited local military figures to seize power and prepared political and logistical support for new regime — United24. 1/
After Prigozhin's death, Russia brought Wagner under direct control of foreign intelligence service.
76 internal documents from 2023-2024 show transfer of Wagner's assets to state structures. Key figures include Sergei Mashkevich, Sergei Klyukin, Artem Gorny. 2/
Russia created "African Political Science" with $750K monthly budget.
Uses St. Petersburg offices to coordinate operations in 30+ countries. Organization divided into political operations for lobbying and media operations for manipulative social media content. 3/