Jason Furman Profile picture
Jul 30 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Two Governors dissented from the Fed's move today, first time since 1993.

I have mixed feelings.

Committees function better with open dissents & 25bp cut is perfectly reasonable.

But unfortunate that the Biden & Trump appointees lined up on opposite sides of this vote.
And I would add:

1. Waller & Bowman MUCH closer to majority's 4.25-4.5% rate than Trump's 1% rate.

2. Waller has been thoughtful about his thinking.

3. Is possible in another world one of the Biden appointees would have wanted 25bp cut. So this isn't all about Bowman & Waller
This is happening under an unprecedented assault on the Fed by the President.

Would make me tempted to circle the wagons and show defiance.

But defiance should be stubborn about independence not keeping rates higher just to send a message. (And I don't think they are.)

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More from @jasonfurman

Jul 31
A big pop in core PCE inflation in June. Annual rates:

1 month: 3.1%
3 months: 2.6%
6 months: 3.2%
12 months: 2.8%

No matter what horizon you're looking at this is too high. (Although there is a case that it is transitory due to tariffs.) Image
Here are the full set of numbers. Image
Services excluding housing is the one slice that is muted. But that is what we were counting on to get inflation back to 2%. The problem is goods inflation of this magnitude was not expected (prior to tariffs). Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 30
Q2 GDP came in at a 3.0% annual rate.

There were massive timing shifts that shifted reported growth from Q1 to Q2. The much better way to look at the data is averaging the two which is a 1.2% annual rate. That is well below the pace in 2024 or the Nov 2024 forecast for 2025-H1. Image
Here are the GDP numbers. In Q1 inventories added 2.6pp but imports subtracted 4.6pp. In Q2 it was the reverse, with inventories subtracting 3.2pp and imports adding 5.0pp. These are volatile categories and inventories, in particular, have large measurement error. Image
Here are those import and inventory numbers. In Q1 firms imported a lot to get ahead of tariffs. Then in Q2 imports fell back down to a more normal pace (about the same as in 2024). A lot of those imports went into inventories in Q1 and came out of them in Q2. Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 15
Inflation rose in June, with core CPI at an annual rate of:

1 month: 2.8%
3 months: 2.4%
6 months: 2.7%
12 months: 2.9%

You can see signs of tariffs in these numbers and that is only likely to grow. Image
Here are core goods and core services. The service increase is relatively normal (even muted as shelter was low this month). Goods was unusually high including increases in tariffs sensitive items like appliances and apparel. Image
Here are the full set of numbers. Notably everything ex housing is worse for the month of June, a reversal of the pattern we had seen earlier. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 8
Senator's Cassidy and Kaine outline a plan to "rescue" Social Security. Both Senators are very thoughtful, bipartisanship on this issue is essential, but unfortunately I'm mostly skeptical on this proposal.

This 🧵 outlines some of the major considerations: Image
They propose the government borrowing $1.5 trillion to invest in stocks..

Simultaneously general revenue would cover full Social Security full benefits.

After 75 years, they argue, the premium on stock investments could repay that initial borrowing. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTING

The way the government, or at least the Social Security acturies, does its accounting their plan works. Eg assume a 5% borrowing cost & 9% stock return then after 75 yrs govt hedge fund has net ~$640T, or ~$25T NPV--same as Social Security shortfall.
Read 14 tweets
Jul 3
The extraordinary U.S. economy continues to be extraordinary. 147K jobs added in June with upward revisions to April and May. Unemployment rate ticks down to 4.1%. Some contrary signs: participation rate down and hours down + weak wage growth. Image
Note all of this while the Federal government continues to shed jobs--although the job reductions (averaging 11k per month this year) are still small compared to underlying private sector job trends. (And in June state and local education increases overwhelmed federal cuts.) Image
And here is private job growth. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 27
Core PCE inflation came in just as expected. It has been very tame for the last three months--but shouldn't think of them in isolation but as part of a noisy process where inflation was much higher before.

Annual rates:
1 month: 2.2%
3 months: 1.7%
6 months: 2.9%
12 months: 2.7% Image
Here are the full set of numbers. Most of the measures lined up at this point. Image
Market-based core may be more useful. Image
Read 6 tweets

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