Thread by @MattooShashank

Donald Trump is breaking the India-US relationship

A massive crisis now threatens one of the world's most important strategic partnerships

🧵on the Trump-India saga

So if you're just tuning in, welcome!

The India-US relationship is in free fall

Yesterday, Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on India (plus an unspecified "penalty" for buying Russian energy)

This was just the latest in a series of jolts to the relationship

In May, Trump caused serious political controversy in India when claimed the credit for securing a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after Operation Sindoor

He even invited PAK Army Chief Asim Munir (whom India blamed for instigating the Pahalgam terror attacks) for lunch

The US is now improving ties with PAK across the board

Trump has threatened companies like Apple - which is expanding iPhone production in India- with tariffs

Trump has refused to sign a trade deal with India until it opens up its politically sensitive agricultural market

There are also larger challenges

For the last decade, the shared challenge posed by China has been THE strategic glue binding the two

Now, India doesn't even know what Trump's China policy is

This is concerning since India has bet on US support in case of a crisis with China

For example, during India's border standoff with China in 2020, the US backed New Delhi up

Washington provided intelligence & cold weather clothing for troops (among other things)

It was a crisis that built trust between India and America

But this bond is under serious strain

But how did things get so bad?

Part of this is undeniably a failure of Indian diplomacy

Prashant Jha argued earlier this year that India made a big analytical mistake in dealing with Trump

India assumed it was in a stronger position than most countries when it came to Trump

PM Modi has had a strong personal relationship with the American leader

And the first Trump administration saw a strengthening in the India-US relationship

But Jha argues that India was surprised by how easily and often Trump crossed New Delhi's diplomatic red lines

Just one example was Trump declaring that India and Pakistan would hold talks on Kashmir

Jha also says that India did not do enough ground work to get into the MAGA ecosystem and build alliances with people who advise Trump closely

This much is almost certainly accurate

But Trump's own strategic blindness is a bigger problem

Trump seems to believe that he can be friends with Pakistan on Monday, India on Tuesday and China on Wednesday

And he also believes that each of these powers will be okay with that

Like any leader, Trump places America's interests over those of other nations

But the way Trump has pursued those interests - by totally disregarding the impact it will have on India - has caused a crisis in the bilateral relationship

Trump's insistence on a trade deal that will open up India's agri sector - which would be a difficult sell for any govt - is one example

His desire to tap into Pakistan's reported oil & minerals reserves has led him to court PAL openly just two months after it clashed with India

All of this has real consequences

US President Donald Trump was fiercely attacked by India's opposition parties this week in Parliament

The relationship with Washington has become controversial in a way it really hasn't been for a decade

And that could be a longer term risk

Experts and commentators skeptical of American reliability as a partner for India have also been strengthened

India has also pushed harder to improve its relationship with China as concerns over ties with Washington grow

Russia has pushed for a revival of the old RIC triangle

So where do we go from here?

The first order of business will have to be stabilizing the relationship

Part of this will involve getting the trade deal bogey out of the way

@MukeshAghi tells me that India should focus on giving Trump a headline he can sell to his base at home

That will help ease some concerns from Indian industry about the impact of 25% tariffs

Some suggest a phone call between Modi and Trump could also help smooth over tensions

India will also have to find allies within the US business elite and the MAGA political universe

Could India-US ties recover quickly?

The short answer is yes

As we've seen with Trump's policy on Europe, he can and does change his approach

But longer term trends - like Trump's policy on China and his outreach to Pakistan - remain difficult for India to change on its own

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