“I’m not sure Trump knows what he’s playing with. Yes, the government was looking forward to a more transactional era: For New Delhi, almost everything is negotiable. But not its relationship with Pakistan.” 1/7
https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1951089270552179112
“Citizens already resented Trump claiming credit for a ceasefire between the nuclear-armed nations earlier this year. Nothing is more likely to cause any Indian leader to dig in his heels and stop talking about economic ties than a mention of Pakistan.” 2/7
“New Delhi has learned, too late, that it has very little actual leverage in Washington. The Chinese may be granted another extension because they have things that they can threaten the US economy with.” 3/7
“The Europeans and East Asians can promise to buy American-made weaponry or invest in the US. India can neither threaten nor bribe.” 4/7
“What voters won’t accept, however, is any dilution of the government’s hard line on Pakistan. Capitulation to Trump after he has signaled he prefers our neighbors would be a tough sell, even for Modi.” 5/7
“I expect Modi will still be able to push through some sort of deal, if with more concessions and domestic political damage than he would like. But Trump is clearly asking himself exactly what India brings to the table as a partner.” 6/7
“Equally, citizens will wonder if the US is once again making the mistake — as it has so often before — of trusting Pakistan’s establishment while ignoring India… it will take a long time for the relationship to recover from this tumultuous week.” 7/7
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