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Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Gokul Sahni
@Gokul_Sahni
Geopolitics, geoeconomics, & Cold War(s) - India’s viewpoint | MA Modern War @WarStudies King’s; MSc IR @RSIS_NTU; MBA @UniofOxford | Own views.
Sep 12 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“The fact is, India isn’t rich enough or white enough or English-speaking enough to be a charter member of either the west or the anglophone world. Modi’s mandarins forgot that – outside the charmed circle of the west – the US doesn’t have allies, it has clients.” 1/7 “Trump’s decision to further raise tariffs on India out of resentment was a reminder that US presidents have often seen India as either a supplicant or a nuisance or both.” 2/7
Sep 11 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Not every country wants to emulate Japan:

“The MOU sets out an arrangement which, on one reading, reeks of coercion: a sovereign nation forced to funnel private and public-sector investment to a much richer one under a structure unashamedly directed by the US president.” 1/6 “Once Japan recoups its investment, it then reaps only 10% of the cash flows from the project, to America’s 90%. Yes, Japan has nominal input via a consultative committee into which projects are chosen, but there are no Japanese on the more powerful investment committee..” 2/6
Sep 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“Indeed, one of the questions of the moment is: “Where is the crisis?” Why are financial markets not reacting more violently to the ongoing disruption of the status quo?” 1/6 “Today, the Ukraine war continues, the Middle East is convulsed by violence and Donald Trump is back in the White House. Yet markets are eerily calm.” 2/6
Sep 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“The US president has attempted to build friendly relations with Putin, Xi and Kim — while threatening American allies and alienating nonaligned countries.” 1/7 “Trump’s charm offensives with Russia, China and North Korea have so far yielded remarkably little. Efforts to forge a friendship with Kim during the first Trump administration came to nothing. Indeed, their collapse seems to have led to a radicalisation of North Korean policy..”
Sep 5 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“a toxic combination of tariffs, hostile rhetoric and ideological demands is moving many of the world’s pivotal states away from the United States and toward China. It might be the greatest own goal in modern foreign policy.” 1/7 “Trump has treated those pivotal states to some of his most vicious rhetoric & aggressive policies. He unleashed the highest tariff rate in the world against 🇮🇳. He punished 🇧🇷 with equally high tariffs & levied sanctions & visa bans against 🇧🇷 officials. 🇿🇦 faces 30% tariffs..”
Sep 5 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“The roadblocks to closer cooperation with India are also high. Modi’s trip to China is more a rebalancing away from the US orbit than an embrace of Beijing, according to an Indian official familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified.” 1/5 bloomberg.com/news/features/… “The trust deficit on both sides remains high after ties suffered following a 2020 border clash, and India is far away from easing restrictions on Chinese investment, the official said.” 2/5
Sep 4 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“With the relationship between the United States and India at its lowest point in decades, Washington’s inflammatory language toward New Delhi is deepening the crisis, according to people familiar with the matter, and complicating efforts to repair ties.” 1/9 “Rubio and Greer went to the Oval Office recently to present Trump with a proposed Indian trade deal, but the president rejected it, according to three people familiar with the matter, speaking.. on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political discussions.” 2/9
Sep 3 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
“What did Lyndon Johnson want in return, besides friendships with a military dictator and Karachi’s camel cart driver? A Cold War geo-strategic fling which allowed the U.S. the use of an airbase in Pakistan’s north to fly reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union.” 1/10 “Throughout the 1980s, America bankrolled the brutal military dictatorship of General Zia ul Haq because he was helping Washington defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan.” 2/10
Sep 2 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“the presence of Mr. Modi, whose once-special relationship with Mr. Trump has become strained, was a hint to Washington not to take India for granted.” 1/9 “The Tianjin summit won’t be remembered for its achievements. But the meeting was a significant move. China and America are positioning themselves for what Messrs. Xi and Trump both consider the main event of Mr. Trump’s second term..” 2/9
Sep 1 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“I suspect the impact will be less on trade policy but could turn out to be more important in the power struggle between the executive and some parts of the judicial system.” 1/5 “I suspect that, ultimately, this ruling will not fundamentally alter the administration’s propensity to use tariffs to pursue multiple objectives. The approach is integral to the efforts to rewire the international trading system and also the domestic economy.” 2/5
Sep 1 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
.@gideonrachman: “Steve Witkoff… told the president that he was “the single finest candidate” ever for the Nobel Peace Prize. Scott Bessent.. gushed: “You have saved this country.”

The insistence on absurd & public flattery for the leader is a hallmark of authoritarianism.” 1/5 “This kind of enforced sycophancy is not just ridiculous — it is dangerous. It signals that a megalomaniac is in charge and that nobody feels able to stand up to him. In such a climate, Trump’s every whim will be indulged.” 2/5
Aug 30 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“a close reading of government statements and conversations with policymakers in New Delhimakes clear that managing a disturbed and disputed border with Beijing is the primary imperative.” 1/9 “It was the disruption of peace and tranquility at the border that was holding India-China ties back, and it is the recent “general prevalence of peace and tranquility in the border areas” that is “leading to gradual normalisation of bilateral relations.” 2/9
Aug 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
“The leaders of three of the world’s four most powerful nations will meet in China this weekend to discuss how to react to the upending of the international order wrought by the fourth: the U.S. under President Trump.” 1/8 “Viewed from Beijing, the timing for this choreographed diplomatic fest couldn’t be more opportune. Though little of substance is likely to come out of this multiday summitry, images matter.” 2/8
Aug 30 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“whatever Gor’s missing in the realm of formal foreign relations chops, he appears to make up for in a crucial ambassadorial attribute, clout with the president — not to mention the Republican senators who will run his confirmation.” 1/5 “One person close to the situation downplayed the notion of needing traditional on-paper diplomatic qualifications: “Diplomatic experience is fake in this day and age. Candidly, it’s just not real. This is much more about being good at negotiation and high-stakes deal-making.”
Aug 29 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
“In its pursuit of a narrowly framed “trade deal,” the administration has overreached, alienating a key partner. In doing so, it has underestimated both the structural sensitivities of the Indian economy and the strategic implications of overreliance on coercive diplomacy.” 1/14 “This deterioration did not arise from a singular policy failure but rather from a pattern: a belief that India, like Japan and the European Union (EU), would ultimately make major concessions affecting sensitive domestic constituencies under US pressure.” 2/14
Aug 28 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
“President Donald Trump has undone 25 years of diplomacy by embracing Pakistan after its conflict with India in May, and now singling out India for even higher tariffs than China.” 1/12 “He cannot have thought through how the world’s most populous country and fifth-largest economy would react.” 2/12
Aug 28 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
“The present pictures of the eight leading economies—GDP, Purchasing Power Parity—would have been unimaginable a generation ago: it includes China, India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia. Only the US, Germany and Japan represent the ‘West’.” 1/15 “The changing structure of global industrial capabilities is equally stark: in 2000, the West accounted for over 70 per cent; by 2030, it is the non-West that is projected to account for nearly 70 per cent of global production.” 2/15
Aug 28 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“It wasn’t until June that Modi’s government began making a serious effort to improve relations with China, the person said, asking not to be identified in order to discuss internal matters.” 1/7 “At the time, trade talks with the US were turning contentious and officials in New Delhi were bristling over Trump’s claims of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following four days of fighting in May.” 2/7
Aug 28 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“a central fact about the world’s fifth-largest economy: India’s large population of poor farmers hinders its capacity to reach mutually beneficial trade deals.

Agriculture, including dairy, is a major sticking point in U.S.-India trade negotiations.” 1/7 “India has an average tariff of 39% on imported farm goods—among the highest in the world. It protects its large but inefficient dairy industry with both high tariffs and nontariff barriers.” 2/7
Aug 25 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
.@gideonrachman: “Beijing’s ace is its near monopoly on the production of rare earths and other critical minerals that provide vital inputs to western industry and the US military.” 1/10 “The names of the rare earths remain exotic and little known to the western ear... But, in a full-on trade war, the western public might soon become familiar with names like neodymium and dysprosium.” 2/10
Aug 24 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
“Leaders of the greatest European nations, along with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sitting like contrite, obedient schoolchildren in front of Donald Trump, the imperial headmaster.” 1/12 “Here are the richest, most powerful nations in the world, the third and sixth largest national economies, second largest economic bloc (EU), two nuclear-armed P5 states, all on their knees.” 2/12