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Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Gokul Sahni
@Gokul_Sahni
Geopolitics, geoeconomics, & Cold War(s) - India’s viewpoint | MA Modern War @WarStudies King’s; MSc IR @RSIS_NTU; MBA @UniofOxford | Own views.
Jul 24 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
“the UK needs a strategy for India that goes beyond the FTA. This includes more progress in areas ranging from technology, defence, education and the energy transition, and it means taking practical steps in difficult areas, such as the UK’s visa policies.” 1/10 “The new government has also inherited the accomplishments of previous Conservative administrations, notably a 2030 roadmap for the bilateral relationship, the establishment of the first ‘2+2’.. dialogue between both countries, & the conclusion of an Enhanced Cyber Partnership.”
Jul 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“Early Saturday, Biden told senior aides it was “full steam ahead” for the campaign. But by later that evening, he had changed his mind following a long discussion with his two closest aides.” 1/6 “With that knowledge and the awareness that more party elders, including more of his former Senate colleagues, would pile on the public pressure campaign, a sudden exit offered the president his best chance to make it appear that the decision came on his own terms.” 2/6
Jul 21 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
“🇺🇦 to Gaza to the South China Sea, the world is littered with crises. International cooperation is paralyzed by diplomatic rivalry.. sole superpower is limping toward an election with fateful consequences, as its rivals.. arm themselves for wars present &, perhaps, future.” 1/23 “The emerging order is one in which geopolitical blocs are back, and strategic rivals wage vicious ideological and technological fights. The international economy is a battleground, as interdependence and insecurity go hand in hand.” 2/23
Jul 21 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
.@brhodes: "the old rules-based international order doesn’t really exist anymore. Sure, the laws, structures, and summits remain in place." 1/13
foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… "But core institutions such as the UN Security Council and the World Trade Organization are tied in knots by disagreements among their members. Russia is committed to disrupting U.S.-fortified norms. China is committed to building its own alternative order." 2/13
Jul 19 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
.@ElbridgeColby: “It's a common sense approach that's more realistic, that puts Americans interest first, not in an aggressive or belligerent way. It's talking about having a strong American military but one that is used sparingly. It talks about a strong industrial base.” 1/20 “And to me, I think you would see more, not academic realism, but more pragmatic realism, working with countries that share our interests is my sense, but in a kind of more common sense, pragmatic, realistic way.” 2/20
Jul 19 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
“Since 2022, as Russia’s war in 🇺🇦 has persisted, numerous other non-Western governments have taken their own stances advocating dialogue to end the war, from 🇮🇩 to 🇧🇷 & 🇿🇦. In fact, around the wider world, this is the far more common position than any of the alternatives.” 1/13 “Now, we are at the cusp of a moment when the United States (US) itself—entirely for its own domestic political reasons—could reach a similar official position on ending the Russia–Ukraine war.” 2/13
Jul 17 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Great piece:

“Despite US concerns, the state of the relationship is probably as good as it can be. Obviously, India gets to choose the kind of relationship it wants with the US & is plainly uncomfortable with the deeper security partnership that Washington appears to want.” 1/15 “But the pace of the India-US relationship is clearly being dictated by New Delhi, as it almost always has been.” 2/15
Jul 16 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
“Decolonization from the middle of the 20th century onward did not much alter Western dominance, nor did it end Asia’s deference to Europe.

Until now, that is.” 1/21 “The rapid growth of Asian economies and the redistribution of global power in favor of the East heralds a new era in the relationship between Europe and Asia. What began as a shift in economic power is now extending to the geopolitical, military, and technological realms.” 2/21
Jul 1 • 39 tweets • 6 min read
A fascinating piece referred in the book was @GrahamTAllison & Robert Blackwill writing in summer 1991 about "America's Stake in the Soviet Future" - speculating at the coming future and writing prescriptions that will ultimately not be heeded: (1/39)

foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi…
"these rapidly unfolding reforms constitute a "Second Russian Revolution." When completed, its consequences for politics, economics, ownership and the character of the Soviet government may be no less profound than those of 1917." 2/39
Jun 30 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Thread 2:

“among the external forces that lie beyond Chinese control – and while great powers such as Russia, Japan, and even India could complicate or even impede China’s rise – only the US could wield sufficient strategic and economic power to potentially derail it.” 1/21 “despite his daughter’s English language fluency, Xi himself neither speaks nor reads English – which means that his understanding of 🇺🇸 has always been intermediated through official Chinese sources of translation, which are not always known for accuracy, subtlety, or nuance.”
Jun 28 • 28 tweets • 5 min read
“A post-American Europe is becoming ever more thinkable. It’s worth asking what kind of place that might be.” 1/28 “Optimists hope that Europe can keep on thriving—even if it loses 🇺🇸 security umbrella.. 🇺🇸 might go home, in this view, but a Europe that has grown wealthy, stable, &.. democratic over the past 80 years is ready to act as a constructive, independent force in a multipolar world.”
Jun 25 • 28 tweets • 5 min read
Thread 4 on events:

“(In 1989) Western universities… think tanks, fellowship programs… used their funds to invite Soviet visitors. Intellectuals were invited by Western foundations.. factor in bringing the Cold War to an end. Yet it also delegitimized the Soviet system.” 1/28 “For first-time Soviet travelers to the West a visit to the supermarket produced the biggest effect. The contrast between half-empty, gloomy Soviet food stores & glittering Western palaces with an abundant selection of food was mind-boggling… changed Soviet travelers forever.”
Jun 22 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
Some great points in this by @stephenWalt:

“apart from accusing China of stealing U.S. technology and violating prior trade agreements, the chorus of experts warningabout China rarely considers the broader measures that helped Beijing pull this off.” 1/19 “If China really is eating America’s lunch, shouldn’t Americans ask themselves what Beijing is doing right and what the United States is doing wrong? Might China’s approach to foreign policy provide some useful lessons for people in Washington?” 2/19
Jun 19 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
.@AgatheDemarais: "Economic statecraft is in fashion. Sanctions, export controls, tariffs, investment screening mechanisms, and trade agreements have become go-to tools for Western states to pursue geopolitical goals. This trend is fuelling the rise of geoeconomics.." 1/13 "geoeconomics analyses the interplay of economics and geopolitics in the areas of trade, technology, or finance. In a narrower sense, geoeconomics refers to the use of economic tools to implement foreign policy – fuelling a merger between geopolitics and economics." 2/13
Jun 19 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Orwell in 1945:

“Some months ago, when the bomb was still only a rumour, there was a widespread belief that splitting the atom was merely a problem for the physicists, and that when they had solved it a new and devastating weapon would be within reach of almost everybody.” 1/15 “Had that been true, the whole trend of history would have been abruptly altered. The distinction between great states and small states would have been wiped out, and the power of the State over the individual would have been greatly weakened.” 2/15
Jun 18 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
What a piece about a potential Trump 2.0 foreign policy:

Send the entire US Marine Corps to the Pacific, arm Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, make Taiwan pay more, make the EU immediately admit Ukraine.. and not mention India even once. (1/25)

foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… "In 2017, President.. Trump brought.. (peace through strength) ethos back to the White House after the Obama era, during which the US had a president who felt it necessary to apologize for the alleged sins of American foreign policy & sapped the strength of the US military." 2/25
Jun 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“According to industry estimates, about Rs 40,000 crore ($4.8bn) will now be required to build infrastructure & various govt buildings in the city on.. Krishna riverbank, nearly double.. estimated.. during Naidu’s previous stint as the chief minister.” 1/4 financialexpress.com/business/indus… “Renowned architect Hafeez Contractor, who was involved in the city’s master planning and designing the high court and assembly buildings along with Foster + Partners, said if New Delhi was built by the British for the next 100 years, Amaravati will be the “city of the future”.”
Jun 9 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
“the outcomes of the general elections in two of the largest states of the union—Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh (UP)… have had the most telling impact on the changed composition of Parliament, with the reverses faced by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).” 1/14 “outcome in Maharashtra suggests the general popular disapproval of the designs to tighten the grip over power through engineering splits in the opposition parties… has been perceived as an unfair attempt to skew the field of political competition in favour of the ruling party.”
May 24 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
Enjoyed reading about Japan's Emperor Hirohito, who reigned from 1926-1989, in ‘Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan’ (2000), a biography that highlights how the 🇯🇵 monarch was an active, if behind-the-scenes player, in Imperial Japan’s foreign policy. Some excerpts: (1/30) Image "Hirohito and his entourage skillfully implemented the real lessons they had learned from King George V – lessons not about the constraints of constitutionalism but the importance of state spectacle and ritual in enhancing the monarch’s dignity and authority." 2/30
May 24 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
“Much as India’s “Look/Act East” policy reflected a shift in India’s worldviewfollowing the end of the Cold War, New Delhi’s reinvigorated engagement with the Middle East today reflects a deeper, ongoing shift in the country’s external engagement.” 1/15 “This includes a more muscular and assertive foreign policy that is less piecemeal and more strategic in its approach. Embedded within this is an Indian proclivity to align itself more closely with the United States & to develop a more ideologically driven foreign policy..” 2/15
May 22 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Came across this press conference of then-US President Bill Clinton with Indian PM PV Narasimha Rao in May 1994. A lot of rhyming with modern times. (1/20)

presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/the-… Clinton: "It was a distinct pleasure for me to meet the Prime Minister who has led India through what to me is an absolutely astonishing period of economic transformation. He's kept a steady hand on the helm of Indian democracy through many challenges." 2/20