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Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Gokul Sahni
@Gokul_Sahni
Geopolitics, geoeconomics & Indian foreign policy. The Cold War. Cricket & spy fiction | MA @WarStudies King’s; MSc IR @RSIS_NTU; MBA @UniofOxford | Own views.
Dec 7 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
.@EmilyHardingDC: “the democracy agenda is clearly over. Foreign policy choices will be made based on what makes the United States more powerful and prosperous.” 1/9 “That’s fair, and clearly what the American people voted for, but today’s self-interested choices may lead to a far lonelier, weaker, more fractured future. This is a truly pivotal moment in the way the world works.” 2/9
Dec 7 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
🧵 “it looks like the West will not survive Trump 2.” 1/15 “the West has been a Christian notion, an imperial notion, and a white racial notion, but it really became a “thing” during the Cold War, during which the West came to be synonymous with 🇺🇸 & its European NATO allies, plus 🇯🇵 and a few former European colonies, 🇦🇺, 🇳🇿and 🇨🇦.”
Dec 7 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
“it reads like a manifesto for a radically different American project. It is narrower, more partisan, more inwardly focused, and more personalized than any of its predecessors.” 1/13 “It criticizes “American foreign policy elites” for chasing “permanent American domination of the entire world” and for tying the US to “so-called ‘free trade,’” globalism, and “transnationalism” that allegedly hollowed out the American middle class and eroded sovereignty.” 2/13
Dec 6 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
“Ireland is like a small child in geopolitical terms, unable to defend itself and not a member of NATO, but we are the vulnerable backdoor into Europe for Russia, and we are sitting on unprotected digital gold.” 1/16 “Roughly three out of every four undersea data cables in the entire northern hemisphere are obliged to meander through Ireland’s vast liquid backyard, which is 10 times our land mass.” 2/16
Dec 5 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
“While the Indian government has been fairly restrained in its response to recent US policies, there is no doubt that Washington’s credibility as a stable partner—never guaranteed in the best of times—has taken a severe hit.” 1/8 “the second Trump administration has appeared to care little about India’s potential. Openly putting the squeeze on India as a leverage play against Russia showed just how little Trump worries about losing India’s favor.” 2/8
Dec 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“plans to impose sanctions on the spy agency — and contractors it is allegedly using to conduct a hacking campaign against US telecom networks called “Salt Typhoon” — were put on hold to avoid undermining the US-China détente.” 1/6 “But the decision not to impose sanctions over Salt Typhoon, which has successfully targeted the unencrypted communications of top US officials, has sparked frustration among China hawks in the government who think Trump is sacrificing national security for trade deals.” 2/6
Dec 4 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
“As the global economy confronts the changes driven by technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, and shakes off ideological preoccupations around green energy, the President is prepared to lead the way.” 1/6 “Poland, a nation that was once trapped behind the Iron Curtain but now ranks among the world’s 20 largest economies, will be joining us to assume its rightful place in the G20.” 2/6
Dec 3 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
"now, India must reassess its American gamble. Since the summer, Trump has departed from the policy of recent US administrations and sought to pressure India. He increased tariffs to 50% on India in August, ostensibly as a penalty for its ongoing purchases of Russian oil." 1/14 "the path that India seems to be taking—and, indeed, should be taking—is a form of what its foreign policy establishment often calls “multialignment,” an orientation designed to build stronger ties with many countries, even if those states have contradictory interests." 2/14
Dec 3 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
“Eventually, Delhi’s belief that terrorism could be contained below the threshold of interstate conflict collapsed. As was made clear in Operation Sindoor, India has crossed a doctrinal threshold.” 1/12 “It no longer responds to terrorism with calibrated warnings or waits for international partners to validate its choices. It is building a new operating logic rooted in coercive clarity and a willingness to act first when its citizens are threatened.” 2/12
Dec 2 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
FT editorial: “The government has now introduced four new labour codes that update and consolidate 29 former laws, some of which date back to the colonial era.” 1/9 “The rationalisation alone will be a boon for large businesses. The number of rules that govern workers is estimated to have shrunk from 1,400 to about 350, while the volume of form-filling has been slashed by over a half.” 2/9
Dec 1 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
(On May 7) “Just after midnight, India attacked nine designated terrorist camps as part of a strategy of deterrence by punishment... This operation involved some 72 Indian fighters undertaking offensive and defensive missions in four coordinated waves.” 1/13 “ As the Indian aircraft took off, 42 Pakistani air defence fighters were launched to be in place when the attack commenced.. Pakistan appeared to have had a high-quality air picture, fused from data passed by airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft..” 2/13
Dec 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Hard to argue with @gideonrachman about Xi’s victorious year. As @RushDoshi has said: 2025 seems to be the year when China has become a peer competitor of the US.

Trump & Putin have had setbacks but, “Xi, by contrast, is ending 2025 looking stronger than for some time.” 1/7 “The Chinese leader has survived a perilous five years. A pandemic that originated in China created a global disaster — although Xi and his government somehow managed to forestall any efforts to hold China accountable.” 2/7
Nov 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“Some current and former U.S. officials and law-of-war experts have said that the Pentagon’s lethal campaign — which has killed more than 80 people to date — is unlawful and may expose those most directly involved to future prosecution.” 1/4 washingtonpost.com/national-secur… “The alleged traffickers pose no imminent threat of attack against the United States and are not, as the Trump administration has tried to argue, in an “armed conflict” with the U.S., these officials and experts say.” 2/4
Nov 28 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“I found myself posing the same question.. “Trade is an exchange. You provide something of value to me, and in return, I must offer something of value to you. So what is the product, in the future, that China would like to buy from the rest of the world?” 1/9 “The answers were revealing. A few said “soyabeans and iron ore” before realising this was not much help to a European. Some observed that Louis Vuitton handbags are popular and then went on to talk about the export prospects for fast-rising Chinese luxury brands.” 2/9
Nov 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“then 🇺🇦’s foreign minister... “Here is Europe’s problem,” he replied. “You will not understand what war is until it gets under your skin. Mobilisation may be tearing our society apart, but wait until 🇫🇷 mothers have to send their sons to defend a Nato country bordering 🇷🇺.” 1/6 “Suddenly, France, at peace for the past 80 years and further away from Russia than Poland or Estonia, is debating war, death and sacrifice. Though public support for sending aid to Ukraine is still strong, until now that war was seen as a distant tragedy.” 2/6
Nov 25 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“Across each city we visited, Chinese policymakers and industrialists seemed to have convinced themselves… the idea that the United States and China have reached an inversion point in their relative power, and the arc of history is bending in Beijing’s favor.” 1/9 “You could hear it in how they spoke about American policy and President Trump — as punchlines betraying dysfunction, malice, or incoherence. Chinese scholars were direct in their assessments of U.S. shortcomings in everything from shipbuilding to social cohesion.” 2/9
Nov 25 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
“I compiled here my observations on the culture, politics, and economy of India, the nation I came to see as perhaps the most striking experiment in democratic history.” 1/15 “These remarks are certainly superficial and crude, but in my defense, one of the mantras about India is that anything you can say about India, the opposite is also true.” 2/15
Nov 25 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
“there was a notable absence at the core of the conference that undercut its premise. In years past, the US delegation included senior administration officials, generals and admirals. This year, the Trump administration stayed home and forced the US military to do the same.” 1/11 “This isn’t an aberration: Also over the weekend, the administration boycotted the Group of 20 summit in South Africa. How does the Trump team expect to win any diplomatic victories when it’s not even on the field?” 2/11
Nov 25 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“what is unfolding now in Washington is more than a corrective; it is a purge. The Trump administration’s contempt for the foreign service is manifest in its lackadaisical approach to appointments..” 1/7 “Instead, America has moved into the age of the envoy. The current handling of the Russia-Ukraine talks embodies this shift. Joining Steve Witkoff, the real estate developer.. who has been America’s lead negotiator with Russia, in the latest round of talks is Jared Kushner..”
Nov 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
“…India’s principal Opposition party retreated into its make-believe world in which it is a noble victim. Dedicated to perpetuating the preeminence of one family, it refused to subject itself to sincere self-assessment. It acted in erratic ways.” 1/5 “It taunted Modi in one breath for losing his majority and cast itself as the casualty of his machinations in the next. Modi was simultaneously derided as a loser and decried as a dictator; the system that had deprived his party of a majority was also accused of being rigged..”
Nov 22 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“US army secretary Daniel Driscoll told European ambassadors and western officials at a volatile meeting in Kyiv late on Friday that he was “optimistic that now is the time for peace” — but warned that Washington would show little flexibility.” 1/5 “We are not negotiating details,” he said, according to a senior European official in the meeting at the Kyiv residence of US Chargé d’Affaires, Julie Davis. One senior European official described the tone of the meeting as “nauseating”.” 2/5