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Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Gokul Sahni
@Gokul_Sahni
Geopolitics, geoeconomics, & Cold War(s) - India’s viewpoint | MA Modern War @WarStudies King’s; MSc IR @RSIS_NTU; MBA @UniofOxford | Own views.
Aug 15 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
"Trump’s actions have disregarded several of India’s core foreign policy concerns, crossing sensitive redlines that previous U.S. administrations tended to respect." 1/19 "The US once treated India as an important American partner in Asia. Today, India faces the highest current U.S. tariff rate, of 50 percent—an ostensible punishment for India’s purchase of Russian oil.. India finds itself dealing with a higher tariff rate than even China.." 2/19
Aug 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“Gill, the National Security Council’s senior director for South and Central Asia, tried to assuage the former diplomats, assuring them Washington still viewed New Delhi as a crucial partner, according to the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity..” 1/7 “But Gill noted there was one thing irritating Trump’s team: Why were the Indians still obsessing over how the conflict in May had ended?” 2/7
Aug 14 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“It will not be a listening exercise; it will be a talking exercise,” predicted one knowledgeable official... explained: “Trump will tell Putin what the deal is and what he has to do: land for peace. On land, how much and what terms? On peace, how durable and how protected?” 1/9 “And what if Putin refuses to accept Trump’s peace framework? That will pose a test of Trump’s ability to act with patience and resolve. Officials tell me Trump is ready to impose the sanctions he has threatened for months.” 2/9
Aug 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“For the first time in more than a quarter-century, the U.S. appears to be questioning a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific policy—that maintaining a strong relationship with India is in America’s interest.” 1/7 “Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that “President Donald Trump is now in the process of dismantling this painstakingly built relationship,” undoing decades of bipartisan effort.” 2/7
Aug 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“Should Ukraine’s worst fears come to pass, Donald Trump will on Friday give away land in the negotiating chamber that Russia could not win by force of arms. The ghosts of Munich, Yalta and other sordid bargains ought to be stalking Alaska.” 1/4 “By agreeing to meet in Alaska, Putin is apparently responding to Trump’s threats. In reality, he has not yet agreed to a ceasefire. This does not amount to game, set and match for Putin. But he is starting the tournament with a free set to his name.” 2/4
Aug 10 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“Stella Rimington never set out to become a spy. Living in Delhi in the mid-1960s as the wife of a British diplomat, she was approached one day by the resident MI5 officer at the High Commission..” 1/6 “It was from this unlikely beginning that Rimington, who has died aged 90, rose to become director-general of MI5, the UK’s domestic spy service. The first woman to lead any of Britain’s intelligence agencies..” 2/6
Aug 10 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“Governments here have dreamed for decades of finding and extracting enough oil to turn around the country’s economic fortunes, but none of their attempts have succeeded. Petroleum is Pakistan’s largest import; around 80 percent of the country’s supply comes from abroad.” 1/5 “these reserves have not been proved, cautioned Afia Malik, an energy researcher here. Pakistan’s proven reserves are far smaller — they place it around 50th globally, behind such countries as Romania, Vietnam and Brunei.” 2/5
Aug 9 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A lot of advice around what Modi/India should do with the US/Trump, often well meaning. However, what also should be considered is that if New Delhi does not find 🇺🇸 to be reasonable, it will quite likely simply refuse to play ball. 🇮🇳 is neither a steadfast treaty ally.. 1/4 Nor a weaker power that is very dependent on the US. It recognises that it is, of course, weaker than the US and would likely have to give more than it can take. But it does not need to compromise on what it believes its red lines are. If that is not optimal, then so be it. 2/4
Aug 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“Although the US never made a direct request for Modi to acknowledge Trump’s role in the ceasefire, India saw a shift in tone from the White House after that phone call, according to the officials in New Delhi.” 1/4 bloomberg.com/news/articles/… “Once Trump began publicly attacking India, they added, it was clear the episode marked a turning point in the broader relationship.” 2/4
Aug 7 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
.@NMenonRao on Ashley Tellis: "A more nuanced critique would require understanding India not as a delusional power but as a liminal one—a state standing on a geopolitical threshold, deliberately navigating ambiguity to preserve flexibility and.." 1/13
foreignaffairs.com/responses/what… "utonomy in a global order that is not simply cleaving in two but fracturing in more complicated ways.

India’s foreign policy is best understood through the lens of liminality, the condition of existing between worlds rather than in a fixed role or within a bloc." 2/13
Aug 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“In all likelihood, this summer is Trump’s peak. Life for the US president goes downhill from here. For one thing, inflation is going to rise. To an extent, it already has. If prices haven’t gone up faster & earlier, that is because some businesses stocked up on inventory..” 1/5 “One lesson stands out from world politics over recent years: however price-sensitive you think voters are, they are more price-sensitive than that. Yes, Trump supporters are loyal. But a principle is not a principle until it costs you money.” 2/5
Aug 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The lead pilot of Enola Gay, that dropped the world’s first nuclear bomb:

“I wondered why we were calling it ‘‘Little Boy.” Little Boy was 28 inches in diameter and 12 feet long. Its weight was a little more than 9,000 pounds.” 1/7 washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/… “We had been cautioned not to look back at the bomb explosion and to wear welders’ goggles.. I counted the seconds to myself. I believe I had calculated it would take about 43 seconds to reach either the ground or the planned detonation elevation above the ground.” 2/7
Aug 6 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“If it hopes to close the deal, 🇮🇳 will have to provide Trump with some kind of symbolic “win.” But Modi needs to tread carefully at home. He could probably close 🇮🇳’s refineries to 🇷🇺 oil without putting 🇮🇳s economy at risk, but acknowledging Trump’s role in the ceasefire..” 1/6 “would be politically disastrous. Modi’s carefully cultivated strongman image leaves little room for displays of deference… Rahul Gandhi jibed that Trump said “Narendra surrender,” and Modi rolled over. A gifted politician, Modi will have to find a way to square that circle.”
Aug 3 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
“Most importantly, the sources said, an unnecessary show of bravado in countering some of Trump’s assertions, however ridiculous they may be, should be avoided.” 1/8 “The assumption in New Delhi has always been that Washington DC will maintain a differential of 10-20 per cent in tariffs between China and India; and that the Americans would be cognizant of India’s traditional redlines that have endured for decades..” 2/8
Aug 3 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
“Let’s be clear: the WTO has many dysfunctional working practices, all of which precede Trump’s first term in office. So it would be unfair to suggest that the US president is bulldozing a previously well-oiled institution.” 1/9 “The WTO currently has 166 member nations. Roughly two-thirds of them claim “developing country” status: this entitles them to “special and differential” treatment, which allows them to make slower and less ambitious tariff reductions.” 2/9
Aug 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“I’m not sure Trump knows what he’s playing with. Yes, the government was looking forward to a more transactional era: For New Delhi, almost everything is negotiable. But not its relationship with Pakistan.” 1/7 “Citizens already resented Trump claiming credit for a ceasefire between the nuclear-armed nations earlier this year. Nothing is more likely to cause any Indian leader to dig in his heels and stop talking about economic ties than a mention of Pakistan.” 2/7
Jul 27 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Good to see specifics mentioned:

"To ensure that this necessary rebalancing proceeds, the Trump administration must withdraw substantial numbers of U.S. forces from Europe, starting now, and truly shift the burden of the region’s conventional defense onto the continent." 1/14 'To encourage Europe.. 🇺🇸 must lay out a realistic, targeted, & phased plan that cuts 🇺🇸 troop levels in Europe roughly in half over the next 4 years while keeping in place forces vital to 🇺🇸 security interests or forces that Europe cannot reasonably replace in that time." 2/14
Jul 27 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
.@MilanV: "The second Trump administration is driven not so much by transactionalism as it is by an insatiable desire to burnish its dominance in virtually all its foreign relationships. Its dealings with India have been no exception." 1/12
foreignaffairs.com/south-asia/how… "it now falls to India—not the US—to practice strategic altruism: making concessions to... & limiting what it asks of a 🇺🇸 admin.. concerned with maintaining the upper hand. For a country committed to strategic autonomy & “multialignment,” this is an uncomfortable proposition."
Jul 26 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
“Amid creeping concerns that Norway is becoming bloated, unproductive and unhealthy, Norwegians have started to wonder: Can a country have too much money?” 1/6 “Norwegians are taking much more sick leave than a decade ago, driving up costs for health services. Student test scores have worsened more than in other Scandinavian countries, and critics of the government say there are too many boondoggle tunnels and bridges to nowhere.” 2/6
Jul 25 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
“the Soviet Union collapsed with a whimper, and the United States stood alone. Perceiving no enemies on the near horizon, the nation stopped looking for them so fervently. Budgets were cut, retirements suggested. Agents in the field were brought in from the cold.” 1/14 “So infrequent were Clinton’s meetings with his first C.I.A. director, James Woolsey, that when a small plane crashed onto the White House lawn, in the fall of 1994, people joked that it must be Woolsey, trying to get an audience with the President.” 2/14
Jul 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“For too long, the narrative of Indo-UK relations has been shadowed by the echoes of a colonial past. While that history must never be forgotten, it is equally crucial to acknowledge the evolving dynamics of a modern, democratic India and a globally engaged Britain.” 1/5 “With 99% of Indian exports gaining duty-free access to the UK market, sectors like textiles, leather goods, marine products, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods stand to gain immensely.” 2/5