What we know about today's ambush on Russian mercenaries in Mali.
🧵Thread: 1/ The attack likely took place on August 1st in the Mopti/Segou region, central Mali. At least 3 mercenaries were killed, though the actual toll is likely to be 4 KIA and 8 WIA from the African Corps:
2/ The perpetrators are JNIM, an Al-Qaeda branch in Sahel. There are currently no indicators suggesting Tuareg separatist involvement.
Equipment was damaged as well. In the video, our team identified what appears to be a Ural-4320 MTP-A2.1, delivered to Mali earlier this year
3/ In January 2025, our team documented hundreds of Russian vehicles moved to Mali via Guinea. Since then, at least two more shipments have followed. Based on visual comparison, we’re confident is the same Ural MTP - a mobile workshops that helps to recover and repair vehicles
4/ Visual analysis of the footage suggests that among the killed were also soldiers from the Malian army. There are also reports that a Russian helicopter may have crashed, producing a plume of black smoke. So far, our team has not been able to verify the validity of this claim.
5/ According to one source with a relatively acceptable reputation, the column was attacked with machine guns and grenade launchers, with one grenade reportedly striking an armored vehicle in the convoy. We assume it was likely an MRAP.
6/ On a global scale, this is unlikely to cause any significant shift or impact the African Corps' positions in Africa. However, it is undoubtedly another reputational blow, and we will likely see punitive actions in the area, framed as counter-insurgency measures.
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Early Damage Assessment of Drone Attack on Penza Radio Plant - July 31, 2025
Preliminary analysis of imagery reveals multiple buildings suffered damage ranging from light to severe. One building appears likely to be completely inoperable. Frontelligence Insight reports. Thread:
2/ Based on high-resolution imagery, unavailable for public release due to license, our team concluded: at least one building sustained severe damage; another has signs of penetration and fire, a third likely suffered penetration but no fire; and a fourth appears lightly damaged
3/ Overall, this attack appears to have been more successful than several others on larger facilities, primarily due to the significant fire damage inflicted on at least one building. The strike’s depth is also notable - approximately 600 km from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
In July, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte claimed Russia produces 4 times more artillery ammo than the NATO. To assess this, RFE/RL and CIT analyzed data on Russian vs. NATO ammo production and concluded that the situation is not as nearly dramatic. Thread with key findings🧵:
2/ According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia produced 250,000 152mm rounds in 2022, one million in 2023 and planned to produce 1.325 million in 2024. In practice, however, researchers note that Russia produced slightly more than 1.3 million 152mm rounds
3/ Ukrainian military intelligence offered a higher estimate. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, Russia produced a total of 2 million 152mm and 122mm artillery rounds in 2023 and planned to produce 2.7 million rounds in 2024
An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 struck near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city located in the same bay that hosts several key Russian submarine facilities and naval infrastructure. Given the quake's intensity and the resulting tsunami, some damage is possible. 🧵Thread:
2/ The earthquake’s epicenter was located roughly over 100 kilometers from Avacha Bay, home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet, which hosts both diesel and nuclear submarines. Early footage from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, indicates damage from both ground shaking and tsunami.
3/ The bay has multiple installations, but three stand out: the North-Eastern Repair Center, which services both diesel and nuclear submarines; the Rybachiy Submarine Base, home to Pacific Fleet submarines; and a specialized SLBM loading jetty used for arming submarines.
Over three days, Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have dealt a tangible logistical blow to a rail line linking the military and industrial hubs of Volgograd and Rostov-on-Don. Preliminary analysis points to the destruction of traction substations and fuel tanks. 🧵Thread:
2/ The strikes have repeatedly targeted infrastructure along the rail line, which serves both industry and the supply of Russian forces, including those in Donetsk and Luhansk. The pattern points to a deliberate and systematic effort to disrupt the route
3/ Video uploaded by residents of Orlovskiy shows the local traction substation "Dvoynaya", which powers the railway movement, engulfed in flames. We've geolocated the site and assess it's likely to remain temporarily out of service. Coordinates:
Units like K-2, Madyar’s Birds, the Lasar Group, and the 3rd Corps stand out as well-organized formations that, through leadership, organization, media savvy, and initiative, have delivered solid results often to the point where their unit presence can shift battlefield dynamics:
2/ For all their success, these units are just a small part of Ukraine’s forces. They can’t hold the whole frontline or make up for systemic flaws. Nurturing leaders takes time - they can’t be copied. To extrapolate personal skill into institutional strength , you need a system.
3/ The priority remains systemic reform: to build a military where all units, if not matching the elite few, at least operate within reach of their standards. The Ministry of Defense has made progress since late 2024, but Ukraine is still lagging behind where it needs to be
In June, Reuters reported that North Korea could deploy more troops to Russia as early as July or August to support its war in Ukraine, citing South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun. With July coming to an end, it’s worth revisiting this
2/ According to earlier reports in June and July, an additional 25,000 - 30,000 troops could be deployed, a force roughly equivalent to a military corps. As of late July, there has been no confirmation or evidence of additional North Korean troops near the Ukrainian border.
3/ In exchange for supplying Russia with artillery shells and missiles, North Korea is likely receiving technical assistance on satellite launches and missile guidance systems, Lee Seong-kweun reported back in June, citing the NIS briefing.