'The phrase “luxury beliefs” was coined by the brilliant @robkhenderson to sum up the more preposterous ideas that progressives can afford to hold — “Defund the police!” “Open borders!” “Men can become women!” — because they are largely sheltered from the consequences when such ideas are put into practice.' 1/8
'Accusing Israel of genocide and recognising a non-existent state are the luxury beliefs of western foreign policy, elicited in response to misleading photographs on front pages and fake fatality statistics, and utterly divorced from strategic reality.' 2/8
'One can criticise the way Israel has waged this war. One can note the impossibility of simultaneously rescuing the hostages and destroying Hamas. One can lament the extreme difficulty of defeating an enemy that lurks in tunnels, habitually uses civilians for cover and steals much of the aid sent into Gaza. But one cannot call this nasty war genocide.' 3/8
'If it is genocide you want to see, I recommend you pay a visit to the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. There I can easily demonstrate that the Russian government intends to eradicate a distinct Ukrainian identity. And all five methods of genocide are being deployed against the Ukrainian people, including “forcibly transferring children of the group to another group”.' 4/8
'I wish those people who spend a significant part of each day posting and reposting clickbait about the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza could spare a thought for the real genocide that is going on in eastern Europe right now.' 5/8
'A defining feature of luxuries is that they are expensive. The same is true of luxury beliefs. The belief that Israel is perpetrating genocide in Gaza, like the belief that a Palestinian state can be wished into existence by western leaders, is a Hermès handbag of an idea.' 6/8
'Expend energy on such luxury beliefs and you will not notice the help you are giving the axis of authoritarians to bring about the defeat of the West. Nor will you notice the help they are giving you — through the social media channels they know so well how to manipulate — to be the useful idiot you are.' 7/8
"While the world fixates on Donald Trump’s populist cocktail of reciprocal tariffs and big, beautiful deficits, @JMilei is delivering a man-made miracle that should gladden the heart of every classical economist and quicken the pulse of all political libertarians." 1/5
"@JMilei has brought monthly inflation down from 13% to 2%. The economy is now growing at an annual rate of 7%. Investors no longer shun Argentine bonds and stocks—indeed, they were among the best investments you could have made over the past two years. After a brief upward jump, the poverty rate has fallen from 42%, when Milei was elected, to 31%" 2/5
"These are astonishing feats. And they have ramifications that go far beyond South America. Free-market economics and political libertarianism are sometimes dismissed as a fad of the 'neoliberal' 1980s, long ago superseded by the new populisms of the left and the right. Not so. The world has never seen a government more radically libertarian than @JMilei. But the amazing thing is not that it is working economically. The true miracle is that Milei’s shock therapy is working politically." 3/5
"Over four months, LLM users consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels. These results raise concerns about the long-term educational implications of LLM reliance." However worried you were about the impact of AI on education, you weren't worried enough.
And here is my take, published earlier on @SubstackInc., plus my five recommendations for the university of the future, a.k.a. @uaustinorg. niallferguson.substack.com/p/the-cloister…
That scraping sound you hear is @RachelReevesMP moving the deckchairs around on the Titanic. What’s that big white thing we’re sailing towards? The answer is an unsustainably high national debt. 1/13
On the eve of the financial crisis in 2007-08 the gross national debt was 42 per cent of gross domestic product. Twenty years on, according to the OBR, it will have more than doubled to 105 per cent. The worst part is the rising cost of interest payments on the debt: adjusted for inflation, rates are likely to exceed growth in the next five years. 2/13
What ails the UK? @NeilDotObrien calls it “the confluence”. Simultaneously, Britain is dealing with a demographic crisis (longer life, falling fertility) which mass migration was supposed to solve but didn’t; a breakdown of the mid-20th-century welfare system, which weighs down on incentives to work; rising taxes, which discourage entrepreneurship and investment; and a crisis of confidence fuelled by “woke” denigration of our history in our schools, museums and national broadcaster. 3/13
"There’s realpolitik. And then there’s reality TV politik. There’s foreign policy realism, of the kind associated with Henry Kissinger. And then there’s Donald Trump’s twist: real estate-ism." 1/11
"That week in February when Trump hosted—and, to varying degrees, humiliated—the French president, the British prime minister, and the Ukrainian president introduced to great-power politics the unmistakable style of The Apprentice." 2/11
"As Witkoff explained to @TheAtlantic, he and Trump see diplomacy as functionally indistinguishable from doing real-estate deals. 'Diplomacy is negotiation,' Witkoff told @isaacstanbecker. 'I've been doing it my whole life.'" 3/11
@realDonaldTrump returned to power with the most consequential to-do list in American history. And, in his first 100 days back in the White House, Trump has crushed that list. 1/8
You are entitled to criticize President Trump—and I do, regularly. But you cannot accuse him of overpromising and underdelivering. 2/8
The question, as we look beyond the first 100 days, is how far can a chronically understaffed administration with wafer-thin majorities in Congress achieve a counterrevolution in government while at the same time pursuing a parallel counterrevolution in U.S. trade policy? 3/8
"The reality is that the agreement that didn’t get signed on Friday is more a matter of symbolism than economics. The mineral rights Ukraine would give the United States are worth not very much; the security guarantees America would give Ukraine are worth even less."
@nkumleben and I take a close look at the much misunderstood U.S.-Ukraine deal on minerals (the one that didn't get signed last Friday). Yes, it's a material world, but rare earths aren't all that rare, and some minerals are a lot more critical than others.
Europeans make the mistake of regarding Trump as an overmighty would-be emperor. In fact, he is actuated by a nagging sense of weakness. He must either strike enough deals around the world to power and equip his country’s economy, or face an unacceptable level of dependence on China, the most powerful industrial and military foe the US has ever faced.